Houston vs Kansas State Prediction: A Big 12 Elimination Game
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With a Texas Tech team playing a shockingly light conference slate, BYU, Utah, an improved Baylor, a much-improved Oklahoma State, a strong Arizona, and on and on, there’s zero margin for error now for two teams with a Big 12 loss.
Kansas State fought well but lost at Cincinnati 31-26 two weeks ago. The Collin Klein era has gone well so far, but the Wildcats need to show that they’re players in the Big 12 race. Win this, and with a decent schedule the rest of the way, getting to the conference title game isn’t a crazy dream.
Houston is loaded with experience and talent, and it came this close in a 28-26 loss at Texas Tech a few weeks ago. It beat UCF by ten last week and is 4-1 overall, but it hasn’t quite played up to the level expected. Get this win, and the Cougars will be on the radar again.
Houston vs Kansas State: Quick Hits
- Kansas State doesn’t have to face Utah or BYU. However, it gets the rivalry game against Kansas at home next before starting a run of three road games in four weeks.
- Houston has a rough run ahead with Oklahoma State at home before playing three road games in four dates, starting at Utah.
- This is just the third time these two have played. Houston won 24-19 in 2024. Kansas State won 41-0 in 2023.
How To Watch Houston vs Kansas State
Date: Saturday, October 10, 2026
Game Time: 3:30 PM ET
TV: FOX
Location: Bill Snyder Family Stadium, Manhattan, KS
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Why Houston Will Win
Kansas State is No. 2 in the nation in third down conversions. Houston is No. 1.
The Wildcats have to control the game and the clock with their style, but that starts with getting the running game to work. That moves the chains and sets up all the easy third down chances.
The one time in four games that Kansas State didn’t convert at least 60% of its chances was against Cincinnati. It got to 59%, but that, along with being the worst rushing day of the season so far, was enough in the close loss.
Houston has only allowed more than 75 rushing yards once in five games, but …
Why Kansas State Will Win
Texas Tech was the only team that ran for over five yards per carry on the Cougars, and the 168 rushing yards helped control just enough of the game to survive. Even though Kansas State lost, it still ran for over five yards per carry with 155 yards against the Bearcats.
The Cougar offensive line has been outstanding. It doesn’t allow big plays behind the line, is good for the running game, and it should hold up okay against a loaded Wildcat pass rush that’s always in opposing backfields.
Houston vs Kansas State Prediction, Betting Lines
These two teams do several things the same way at the same high level, and neither one has a screaming weakness to exploit. They’re both well-coached, sharp teams that should play a whale of a battle that comes down to the final few drives.
Houston will do what it does a wee bit better than Kansas State does what it does.
Houston 28, Kansas State 24
Latest Consensus Line: Kansas State -2.5, o/u: 52.5
ATS Confidence (out of 5): 2
Must See Rating (out of 5): 4
Consensus line based on BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, and FanDuel. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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