How No. 13 Hurricanes can still make playoffs — and even win ACC title

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The third set of College Football Playoff rankings came out Tuesday evening, setting off another firestorm of debate about the logic the playoff selection committee uses to rank the nation’s top teams.

Miami is No. 13 in this week’s rankings, inching up from No. 15 last week. The current projected bracket shows the Hurricanes in the playoffs as the No. 11 seed, but that is effectively a place-holder spot for the ACC champion. The Hurricanes are in that spot now because they are the highest-ranked ACC team, but because of Miami’s two conference losses, Miami’s chances of making the ACC title are low.

ESPN’s FPI model gives the Hurricanes about a 26 percent chance to make the playoffs, and The Athletic’s model gives UM an 11 percent chance — though the last update was before this week’s rankings were released.

The Hurricanes may be a long shot for the postseason, but it is still very possible. Here’s how.

1. Win out

This is the simplest part for Miami. The Hurricanes must win their final two games against Virginia Tech and Pittsburgh. If they do not, their playoff chances are kaput. New selection committee chair Hunter Yurachek said as much during the rankings release show on Tuesday.

“First and foremost, Miami needs to continue to win the football games that they have in front of them, and then things will happen,” Yurachek said.

The Hurricanes are an 18.5-point road favorite against the Hokies this week, and they will likely be the favorite against unranked Pitt the following week. FPI gives UM about a 64 percent chance to win out.

2. Root for ACC chaos

If the Hurricanes sneak into the ACC title game — which is still mathematically possible — and win the championship, they will make the playoff and potentially host a first-round game.

Miami needs a lot of things to happen to have a chance of that happening. But given the ACC’s propensity for silliness, it does not seem impossible.

This week, the Hurricanes need Pittsburgh to beat No. 16 Georgia Tech on the road. Neither team had great results last week, with No. 9 Notre Dame blowing out the Panthers and the Yellow Jackets squeaking by a bad Boston College team. Georgia Tech is a 2.5-point favorite.

The Hurricanes also need Southern Methodist to lose one of its final two games against Louisville or Cal. The Mustangs are 2.5-point home favorites over the Cardinals.

Miami likely needs Duke to lose one of its final two games against North Carolina or Wake Forest. The Blue Devils are 6.5-point road favorites over the rival Tar Heels this week.

If Duke wins its final two games, then the Hurricanes would need Virginia Tech to pull off a rivalry upset against Virginia in the final week of the season.

While this series of events is not impossible, it is not likely. That means the Hurricanes will need to hope the dominoes fall their way for an at-large spot.

3. Chalk at the top

At this point in the year, it seems likely that another loss would cause most of the top teams to drop out of the rankings. No. 1 Ohio State, No. 2 Indiana, No. 3 Texas A&M, No. 4 Georgia and No. 5 Texas Tech all have 90-percent chances or better to make the playoffs, according to FPI.

If No. 6 Ole Miss were to lose the Egg Bowl rivalry game against Mississippi State in the season’s final week, the Rebels would drop. But it is a question of how far and if it would muddy the waters for Miami.

Additionally, No. 7 Oregon faces No. 15 USC this week. Oregon, which has one of the weaker resumes of the top-10 teams, would likely drop below UM with a loss to the Trojans. But a USC win over the Ducks could boost USC ahead of Miami, and it would boost Notre Dame’s resume by giving the Fighting Irish a better win on their resume.

UM fans should probably root for the top seven teams to take care of business.

4. Chaos between No. 7 and UM

No. 8 Oklahoma, No. 9 Notre Dame, No. 10 Alabama, No. 11 BYU and No. 12 Utah are also ahead of the Hurricanes. Their results over the next two weeks could give Miami a huge opening to earn an at-large spot.

Oklahoma faces No. 22 Missouri next week and is a 7.5-point favorite. The Tigers have been missing starting quarterback Beau Pribula and have scuffled with freshman Matt Zollers, falling out of playoff contention themselves. Pribula is trying to work back from a dislocated ankle, and Mizzou coach Eli Drinkwitz did not rule him out for Saturday’s game. The Sooners close out the season with a home game against LSU, which started the year with high expectations but struggled down the stretch and fired coach Brian Kelly.

Notre Dame has two struggling opponents, Stanford and Syracuse, to end the year, so it should likely win out. We will discuss the Fighting Irish some more later.

Alabama dropped six spots after its loss to Oklahoma last week. The Crimson Tide have FCS Eastern Illinois this week before facing archrival Auburn in the Iron Bowl to end the year. The Tigers are underperforming and already fired coach Hugh Freeze, so Alabama will be the big favorite. But the game is at Jordan-Hare Stadium, and veteran college football fans know strange things can happen in this game on the Plains. A loss would knock Alabama well out of playoff contention.

BYU, whose fans likely have a right to be upset after the one-loss Cougars were ranked behind multiple two-loss teams, have a big road test against previously ranked Cincinnati this week. Hurricanes fans should be rooting for the Bearcats because a loss would likely end BYU’s chances — unless it wins the Big 12 championship.

Utah is one spot ahead of Miami, though it is a discussion whether or not the Utes and Hurricanes should be in this order. Utah has two losses to the best teams on its schedule and one ranked win — against No. 25 Arizona State, which started backup quarterback Jeff Sims in the blowout. The Utes have games against Kansas State and Kansas to close out the season, and they should be favored.

The more losses for teams in this group, the better it is for Miami.

5. Get compared to Notre Dame

The selection committee organizes teams in groups of four in order to compare them. According to the commitee’s protocols, it focuses on the first four teams, then Nos. 5-8, then Nos. 9-12, then Nos. 13-16, and so on.

Because of this, the committee is not directly comparing Miami and Notre Dame. Yurachek mentioned this Tuesday night.

“We really haven’t compared those two teams,” Yurachek told ESPN. “They haven’t been in similar comparative pools, to date, but Miami is creeping up into that range where they will be compared to Notre Dame if something happens above them.”

That Week 1 win over Notre Dame is Miami’s buoy, and it should pull the Hurricanes up if it comes into play. In order for the committee to directly compare UM to the Fighting Irish, the Hurricanes need to move up. Yurachek was asked directly how UM could do that on Tuesday night.

“I would say Miami needs to continue to win and then hope for some things ahead of them fall their way,” Yurachek said.

If the Hurricanes were to move up, the committee would look at the Notre Dame-Miami game as a key factor. Additionally, the committee would take the teams’ performances four common opponents into account (Miami beat common foe N.C. State in a more dominant fashion than Notre Dame did).

It would be a controversial decision to put the Fighting Irish into the playoff over a team with the same record, similar resume and a head-to-head victory.

“I would say the No. 1 criteria, (in) anything, is always head-to-head,” Miami coach Mario Cristobal said Monday. “It’s why we play the game, right? So I think that always has been and always will be the No. 1 factor in determining whatever relates to whatever.”

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