How the College Football Playoff picture can unfold for the Oklahoma Sooners after conference championships
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The College Football Playoff this year has been a roller coaster of a ride, and trying to figure out what the committee is going to do on a weekly basis has felt more of a fool's errand this year than seemingly any season prior. Fortunately for the Oklahoma Sooners, they know they are in the CFP, no matter what.
Where the issue arises is where exactly the Sooners will be seeded and where would they play their first CFP game under head coach Brent Venables? With a chaotic weekend of college football still ahead of us, the answer to that is: it depends.
There are plenty of scenarios for the Sooners in the playoffs. Who are they most likely to play? Who would be their best matchup that fans should root for? How would they move up or down? Let's break it down. Bear with me, as this can get kind of hectic.
Oklahoma Sooners College Football Playoff Scenarios
Most Likely
Let's assume in this scenario, chalk holds, and the favorites in every conference championship win. That would mean Ohio State beats Indiana, Georgia beats Alabama, Texas Tech beats BYU, and Virginia beats Duke. That would lock in the top four seeds as Ohio State, Georgia, Texas Tech, and Indiana (in my opinion), and give Virginia the last auto-bid as highest-ranked conference champion. In that scenario, it's unlikely Oklahoma moves up from the No. 8 seed in that scenario, and there's not enough chaos below to drop them from there either.
If they hold as the No. 8 seed in that scenario, it's likely that Oklahoma would host either Notre Dame or Alabama at the No.9 seed. Depending on the outcome of the SEC Championship game, I don't believe the committee would drop Alabama after moving them over the Fighting Irish this weekend unless Georgia steamrolls them. However, the committee could aim to avoid any rematches of the regular season, which keeps the possibility of Notre Dame traveling to Norman open.
Best Case Scenario
In my opinion, the best possible draw for Oklahoma is drawing Texas Tech at home. For this to happen, BYU would have to take down Texas Tech while Georgia holds off Alabama. The top four seeds in that scenario would be Ohio State, Georgia, Indiana, and Oregon in some order, while Ole Miss and Texas A&M move up. BYU would leapfrog the Sooners as a 1-loss conference champ, putting them at No.7. To avoid a rematch of BYU-Tech again, the committee puts Texas Tech at No. 9, traveling to Norman.
I think the Sooners match up extremely well with the Red Raiders. Texas Tech would have a difficult time blocking Oklahoma's defensive line, especially if R Mason Thomas returns from his quad injury, and the weeks off should be enough to help right the ship for Oklahoma's offense. It might not be a pretty game with two great defenses, but I think it's without a doubt a very winnable game for the Sooners.
Oklahoma is locked into the No. 8 or No.9 spot no matter what. Getting the chance to play at home is a much better draw, even if they would have to run into Ohio State or Indiana in the following round.
Worst Case Scenario
For me, the worst case scenario is Oklahoma having to travel to play Texas A&M in College Station. The Sooners are undefeated on the road this season, but losing out on the possibility of hosting a playoff game would sting, made even worse by the fact a team Oklahoma used to beat up on for so many years in the Aggies getting the opportunity to host.
This only happens if Alabama beats Georgia in the SEC Championship game and chalk holds everywhere else. That would lock up Ohio State, Indiana, Texas Tech, and Alabama as the top-four seeds, shunting everyone down a notch to make room for the Tide. Oklahoma would drop from No. 8 to No.9, forcing them to travel to A&M.
This story was originally published by A to Z Sports on Dec 5, 2025, where it first appeared in the College Football section. Add A to Z Sports as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
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