Indiana vs Miami: First Thoughts on the CFP National Championship
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Could we get a more interesting College Football Playoff National Championship than Indiana vs Miami?
It’s the unbeaten No. 1 team in the country against a red-hot Hurricane squad playing at home. It’s going to be a blast of an environment, but will the game match the moment?
Here are the first off-the-cuff thoughts on the Hoosiers and Hurricanes.
College Football Playoff National Championship First Thoughts
How can this not be fun? The Miami home crowd will show up for this – it’s always a smallish, fair-weather base, but it brings the intensity when it’s really on. And, of course, Indiana fans will overrun Hard Rock with any tickets they can get their hands on.
At the moment, just to get into the stadium will cost you at least $3,500, and seats between the 40s are going for $10,000. One way or another, the atmosphere will be electric.
Just two years ago, we wouldn’t have had a Miami in the CFP. It would’ve been Indiana vs Texas Tech, and Ohio State vs Georgia. The 12-team format is proving to be better.
However, it would feel right if Indiana wins. It’s unbeaten, won the Big Ten Championship, and proved itself over the finishing kick that it’s absolutely for real. Miami lost to games to okay teams, didn’t play for the ACC Championship, and …
Miami beat Ohio State by ten. Indiana beat the Buckeyes by three. The Hurricanes have played five straight games away from Miami to get back to their home stadium. They’ve earned their stripes.
Miami can’t mess up. Indiana has a weird way of making everyone meltdown – Alabama didn’t quit, but it lost its will to play football, and Oregon was done 11 seconds in.
Carson Beck threw four picks in the loss to Louisville and two in the loss to SMU. He’s been careful ever since with two picks in the last seven games. Indiana has forced 19 takeaways in the last eight games and is +14 in turnover margin.
So how do you make sure the mistakes are minimized? You pound away with the running game.
Yes, Indiana has one of the nation’s best run defenses, but that’s partly because teams don’t try. Alabama inexplicably ran just 17 times. Oregon – fine, so it didn’t have its normal running backs – ran just 26 times.
Even if you’re only gaining three yards per carry, you have to keep trying. Teams give up too quickly. Miami ran 51 times against Ole Miss and 37 times against Ohio State. Its offensive front has the talent and power to control the game from the start.
No one has handed it off more than 33 times against the Hoosiers. Who ran 33 times? Penn State, and it came within a toe-tap of pulling off the win. Who ran 31 times? Iowa, and it was a 20-15 final – granted, with a late safety involved. Oregon ran 30 times in the first meeting, Wisconsin ran 30 times and kept it respectable until late, and …
Yeah, Miami, ground and pound. Rely on the defense to hold up, and get the pass rush moving. It’s easier said than done to get pressure on Fernando Mendoza, but everyone thinks they can do that. Oregon had pass rushers, but they weren’t able to get to 15.
More than anything else, Miami can’t play scared. Oregon didn’t look like it had any clue what to do, Alabama melted into a quivering puddle of goo, and Ohio State played like it was scared to lose, right up until it lost.
Indiana is beatable. It’s not going to do anything dumb or give away any breaks, but remember, it almost lost to Penn State. The Big Ten Championship would’ve been tied late if the Buckeyes didn’t miss a makeable field goal. Miami has to be far sharper than it was against Ole Miss. If it plays like it did against Texas A&M and Ohio State, it’s right in this.
I really want to take Miami, but I’m done doubting Indiana. It’ll be tight, but the Hoosiers come through late with an existential scoring drive that finally lets the IU nation start to celebrate.
First CFP National Championship Prediction But Don’t Hold Me To It Before I Do This For Real In A Few Days: Indiana 27, Miami 17
Related: Indiana vs Oregon CFP Takeaways: What We Learned From the Semifinal
This story was originally published by College Football News on Jan 10, 2026, where it first appeared in the College Football section. Add College Football News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
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