Indiana vs. Ohio State Picks, Odds, Best Bets: Our Staff’s Predictions for Top-5 Big Ten Game

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The No. 5 Indiana Hoosiers (6-0, 3-0 Big Ten) host the No. 4 Ohio State Buckeyes (5-1, 3-0) in a top-five Big Ten battle on Saturday, Oct. 17 at 12 p.m. ET on FOX.

This is a rematch of last season’s Big Ten Championship, which saw Indiana down Ohio State, 13-0, before running the table and winning the College Football Playoff National Championship.

But this year, things are different.

The Hoosiers haven’t looked quite as dominant, holding one-possession wins against Northwestern (29-23) and Nebraska (20-17).

While they may not be the same without Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza under center, doubt head coach Curt Cignetti at your own peril.

On the other side, Ohio State has already suffered one loss after blowing a 20-point fourth-quarter lead to Texas just over a month ago.

Since then, though, the Buckeyes have looked like one of the best teams in the country, with their closest game being a 17-point road win at then-No. 14 Iowa.

They also boast the Heisman frontrunner in Jeremiah Smith, who has already racked up 916 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns.

Ohio State enters as a 3.5-point favorite with the over/under sitting at 50.5. So, who holds the advantage in this postseason rematch?

We polled 13 of our college football experts to get their takes on the spread and total, so let’s dive into our Indiana vs. Ohio State picks and college football predictions for Saturday, Oct. 17.

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+3.5

Pass

-3.5

Our Staff’s Pick: Ohio State -3.5

By Road to CFB

Like most, our Action Network staff is split nearly evenly across this spread. Since it has the hook attached, none of our experts voted a coin flip — everyone is decided on a side.

Hesitancy for Indiana likely stems from some less-than-dominant showings against Northwestern and Nebraska (granted, much better versions of those teams than in recent years).

Indiana showed a vulnerability to the passing game against the Huskers on a windy day, a critical weakness that could be taken advantage of by Ohio State’s premier aerial attack.

Heisman frontrunner Jeremiah Smith leads the way, but Brandon Inniss and Devin McCuin both return for the Buckeyes, giving a major boost to what’s essentially a one-man show in the receiving department.

Cornerback A.J. Harris returned a week ago for the Hoosiers after missing most of the early season. He was targeted twice and didn’t allow a reception.

Ohio State returns more than just Inniss and McCuin.

Tackle Phillip Daniels and three impact players on defense — Jay Timmons, Christian Alliegro and Khary Wilder — also return from injury.

Daniels is a key addition to an offensive line that hasn’t been elite yet this season; starting guard Austin Siereveld remains out, and running back Ja’Kobi Jackson will miss this contest.

When surveying a game between two obviously elite teams, we could play the name game or list off all the areas these teams thrive in.

But that’s not where the games are won and lost — those are on the margins and through the slight weaknesses these teams have.

Ohio State has its hands full with another top-notch defensive line that has tallied a sack on 8.8% of opposing dropbacks (18th-best).

On the flip side, Indiana has the trench advantage, as Ohio State’s defensive front has slipped a bit from its traditional elite status. The Buckeyes’ 4.5% sack rate falls outside the top 100 despite playing teams like Ball State, Kent State and Maryland.

Indiana will certainly apply pressure to OSU quarterback Julian Sayin. The script is there, though much easier said than done.

Pressure Sayin, and Heisman frontrunner Jeremiah Smith can’t win the game by himself. We’ve seen this play out in the second half against Texas and in last year’s postseason, especially as Ryan Day orchestrates more conservative game plans.

But we’ve also seen the heights of this Buckeye team, like building that 24-6 lead on Texas on the road. How this game plays out may be immediately evident, leaving on-the-fence bettors live opportunities early on.

Our Staff’s Pick: Under 50.5

By Joshua Nunn

This is going to be a heavyweight bout and one where our staff feels each offense could struggle to put points on the board.

The overwhelming majority of our writers side with the under in this matchup, and I agree. Points are going to be hard to come by.

Indiana has an elite front with excellent run defense. The Hoosiers are allowing just 75 yards per game and 2.3 yards per carry this season. They just don’t give up explosive runs.

Indiana has also been strong against the pass, giving up just three touchdown passes.

Ohio State has struggled in terms of allowing activity in the backfield on offense, as its offensive line has allowed 11 sacks this season. I expect Indiana’s defense to step up and secure drive-stopping plays in the backfield against Ohio State’s offense.

On the other side, the Hoosiers offense hasn’t been as dominant this season, and there have been more situations where the punt unit has been used rather than the extra point team.

We’ve seen two high-pressure situations against Northwestern and Nebraska in which the offensive play-calling has been a hair more conservative, and situational execution has been lacking.

Ohio State’s defense will force the issue, and Indiana will have to be methodical on offense. This team put up just 15 points through three quarters against Northwestern and six points through three quarters against Nebraska before the offense pulled itself together in the final frame. But this will be the Hoosiers’ toughest task yet.

Quarterback Josh Hoover was rattled last week, and Ohio State has an exquisite secondary that doesn’t allow easy throws to be completed, much less explosive plays to be registered.

I wouldn’t be stunned if this game had a feeling-out process to it, similar to what we saw in the Big Ten Championship game last season.

These two teams need a quarter or so to get into the flow of the game, and more often than not in games of this level of magnitude, defense sets the tone early.

I like this game to trend hard toward the under with a lower-scoring first half as well.

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