Irish Focus on Stanford

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Notre Dame (5-0) returns home to host the Stanford Cardinal (2-3) on Saturday. The Fighting Irish surrendered a season high 26 points last week at North Carilina. They are seeking a crisp and dominating performance against the struggling Cardinal to restore confidence. Meanwhile, Stanford has been battered by injuries and is coming off a 57-3 shellacking by Wake Forest. NBC will provide television coverage for this game starting at 3:30 pm Eastern time.

Coach Tavita Pritchard’s team is primarily a group of homegrown players. Only three of the 22 starters played for other schools last season. One of them is quarterback Davis Warren, a refugee from Michigan. Warren has played well despite an almost nonexistent running game and constant pressure in the pocket.

Several key performers were out last week for the Cardinal. Depth is lacking at this early stage of their rebuilding effort, so the lopsided loss was somewhat expected. Stanford has scored only 17 points per game this season against 38 by opponents. The defense ranks near the bottom of all Power Four schools. On offense, there is some skill position talent around Warren but the line is not very good. Surprisingly, the Cardinal have committed just two turnovers in five games.

Coach Marcus Freeman would like to see a strong, mistake free performance by his starters for 30 minutes. He intends to keep his best players fresh for a tough road game next week at BYU. To that end, those nursing minor injuries such as Leonard Moore and Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa will sit. Others recovering from longer term injuries will not be rushed back into action this week.

Stanford’s injury list includes linebackers Jahsiah Galvan and Matt Rose, along with offensive linemen Niki Prongos and Aidan Kilstrom. All are starters when healthy. Leading receiver Caden High and cornerback Brandon Nicholson joined this list during last week’s game. The Cardinal reported that Galvan and Nicholson will definitely not play while the others are listed as questionable.

NOTRE DAME’S OFFENSE vs. STANFORD’S DEFENSE

Coach Pritchard’s defense employs a 3-4 alignment. Veteran nose tackle Braden Marceau-Olayinka anchors the front seven. On passing downs, Tevarua Tafiti moves down from an outside linebacker spot to rush from the edge. He is their most productive defender in terms of creating havoc.

Stanford’s two inside linebackers are Rose and Galvan. Rose leads the team in tackles despite missing a game. If he and Galvan are unable to play on Saturday, it would leave a massive hole. The beneficiaries, of course, would be the Irish tailbacks.

Safety Jay Green is the mainstay of the Cardinal secondary. He is a sure tackler and a difference maker on the field. Nicholson is the most prominent of six Cardinal defensive backs who are sidelined with injuries. He is regarded as Stanford’s best cover corner.

This battle figures to be a mismatch, even if many of the Cardinal walking wounded can play. Stanford’s defense has allowed opponents to convert third downs at a 51% rate, which is inordinately high. The rate jumps to 63% on fourth down. Their performance in the red zone is even worse. They have allowed a 100% scoring rate with 20 touchdowns and three field goals in 23 trips.

Notre Dame’s offense is rounding into form and will be able to run or pass almost at will. Fans should receive a heavy dose of quarterbacks Noah Grubbs and Teddy Jarrard in the second half. No follower of the Irish will confuse an entertaining second half with “garbage time”.

STANFORD’S OFFENSE vs. NOTRE DAME’S DEFENSE

Warren has completed 59% of his passes with five touchdowns and only one interception. He is a better passer than North Carolina’s Billy Edwards but is surrounded by lesser talent. High is the primary deep threat although Zion Robinson and JonAnthony Hall have flashed of late. Tight end Benji Blackburn is another frequent target at 6’6” and 265 pounds.

The offensive line is the weakest unit on the team. Young players have been pressed into service, and the lineup changes every week. Run blocking has been particularly awful. Stanford has rushed for a dreadful 2.9 yards per carry and just 89 yards per game. Warren is not an effective runner or scrambler. Despite those poor statistics, tailback Micah Ford is a talented athlete. The 225-pounder is difficult to tackle but almost never clears the line of scrimmage without being hit. Sedrick Irvin is an experienced backup at the position. He earns about one third of the total workload.

Prongos is a highly regarded left tackle and the best player up front for the Cardinal. He will be missed on Saturday. Many of the others have rotated into multiple positions due to injuries. Kilstrom is the starting center but has not played since the opening game. Stanford’s patchwork line changes weekly and has given up numerous pressures on passing downs.

Notre Dame must respect Ford’s ability to run and Warren’s accuracy from the pocket. The Irish may play more man coverage in the secondary since Warren is not a threat to run. Without Moore, however, DJ McKinney, Jayden Sanders, Christian Gray and others will under the microscope. Ideally, a strong run defense will lead to third and long situations. Notre Dame’s pass rushers will be creating havoc and hunting turnovers.

Stanford’s offense is below average in third and fourth down conversion rate. They are successful just 34% and 31% of the time, respectively. In the red zone, the Cardinal have scored seven touchdowns and four field goals in their 14 opportunities.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Notre Dame was coasting along without a special teams worry until things unraveled last week. A partially blocked punt, a botched extra point attempt and a kickoff return for a touchdown were inexcusable. Saturday’s performance should tell us if these problems were addressed in practice this week. The Irish will not be doing much punting, though.

Cardinal kicker Emmet Kenney is 5 of 7 on field goal attempts this season. His longest this season is 43 yards. This kick accounted for the only points in Stanford’s 57-3 loss last week. Punter Aidan Flintoff averages 42 yards. The Cardinal elect to return more kickoffs than most Power Four teams. They have run back 20 of them in five games for a 20-yard average.

SUMMARY

Notre Dame can essentially name the score against the outmanned Cardinal. Injuries have depleted what strengths Stanford brings to the table. Travel is also a concern that is frequently overlooked. Over a four week period, the Cardinal will have played in North Carolina twice, in California, and in Indiana. I am not a doctor but I believe fatigue has contributed to the rash of injuries they have suffered.

Although every team engages in self-scouting, North Carolina handed Coach Freeman a gift last week. What better way to evaluate your team than let Bill Belichick and Bobby Petrino spend two weeks dissecting it. Notre Dame will continue to benefit from the highs and lows of that road trip. The coaches can address their exposed weaknesses and be better for it as the schedule becomes more difficult.

It is important for the Irish to execute well in all phases on Saturday. The starters can do themselves a favor by putting away Stanford early and taking a seat. No new injuries, please.

Here are a few questions that will shed light on the outcome:

PREDICTION

I cannot imagine that Stanford is enjoying life in the Atlantic Coast Conference. The disintegration of the old PAC-12 has had a negative ripple effect across college sports. That said, Notre Dame will not show much mercy this week. The Irish must maintain focus for what lies ahead. It appears that the well-traveled Cardinal are just in the wrong place at the wrong time.

NOTRE DAME 49 STANFORD 7

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