Is Michigan Football a legitimate Big Ten Conference contender in 2026?

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A few weeks ago, ESPN’s Bill Connelly released his 2026 college football preseason preview. Connelly has his own formulas and metrics he uses to rank teams on offense, defense and special teams individually. His Big Ten projection specifically doesn’t paint a rosy picture for the Michigan Wolverines when it comes to competing for the conference crown.

Do you agree with Connelly, or are you more of an optimist who has lofty aspirations for this year’s team?

Let’s start by dissecting Connelly’s rankings. He starts by looking at continuity percentages. Of the top-20 teams in the country in returning production, the Big Ten has a whopping eight of them. Michigan sits at No. 20, with Maryland (2), Nebraska (3), Minnesota (8), UCLA (10), Oregon (12), USC (14) and Washington (16) ahead. Only UCLA returns more production on offense than Michigan in the Big Ten. Defensively, the Wolverines sit right in the middle of the pack.

Connelly then gets into the heart of the rankings. In overall projections, he sees a clear top-three in the Big Ten with Ohio State being the best in the country, followed by Oregon (No. 2) and Indiana (5). He sees Michigan (No. 14) near the top of the second tier of Big Ten teams alongside USC (13), Penn State (17), Washington (21) and Iowa (22). I think it’s safe to say fans would be disappointed if the Wolverines finish fifth in the conference.

Offensively, Connelly’s projections have the Wolverines as the 20th-best in the country, good for sixth in the Big Ten. Things are a bit better defensively, as he projects Michigan to be 13th in the country, right behind Ohio State (1), Oregon (3) and Indiana (6) in the Big Ten. To throw proverbial salt on the wound, Connelly projects the special teams to be the second-worst in the conference and 113th nationally.

The last major portion of his projections include record predictions. This factors in strength of schedule, which certainly doesn’t favor the Wolverines, as Michigan has one of the five most difficult schedules in the country. Connelly projects Michigan to win five conference games (implying a 5-4 record in conference). He gives the Wolverines just a 1.1 percent chance to win 11 games and projects Michigan to finish sixth in the conference behind Ohio State, Oregon, Indiana, Penn State and Iowa, in that order.

To summarize, Connelly thinks Michigan is going to be an above-average team with a brutal schedule, which will hamper its final record.

While I don’t think that’s totally unrealistic, I am a bit more positive on Michigan’s chances this fall. The offense should take a major step forward and the defense continues to be loaded with talent. While special teams is a great unknown, I have a hard time seeing Kerry Coombs’ unit being outside of the top-100 in the country. Yes, the schedule is insanely difficult. However, this team should be able to handle adversity better than last year’s team did.

I view the Wolverines as a fringe contender for the Big Ten title. They certainly shouldn’t be favored in the preseason polls over Ohio State, Oregon and Indiana, but anything can happen once the season starts. I’d take this Michigan team over anyone else in the conference, including those Connelly has slotted ahead of Michigan (USC in particular).

Do you think the Wolverines are a legitimate conference contender this fall? If so, where would you put them in the pecking order? And if not, how many teams do you think have a better shot at the crown than Michigan? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below.

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