James Madison vs. Oregon Prediction: College Football Playoff First-Round Game Preview

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The first round of the 2025-26 College Football Playoff concludes on Saturday night with James Madison taking on Oregon in Autzen Stadium. The Dukes are nearly three-touchdown underdogs to the Ducks, so coach Bob Chesney’s team will be aiming to pull off a massive upset in a tough setting.

James Madison’s path to the playoff was a bit unconventional. Thanks to the ACC’s convoluted tiebreaker system, and Miami missing out on the conference title game, Duke’s victory over Virginia in the championship game lifted the Dukes to the last automatic spot in the field as the fifth highest-rated champion. Chesney guided JMU to a 12-1 victory, with the team’s only loss coming to Louisville in early September. The 48-year-old coach has been busy this December, as he’s juggling his next job as the coach of UCLA and trying to get the Dukes prepared for this game.

Oregon doesn’t lack motivation this postseason. After a 13-0 record and the No. 1 seed in last year’s playoff, the Ducks were soundly defeated by Ohio State in the Rose Bowl. Coach Dan Lanning’s squad hopes this postseason trip lasts longer than one contest, and there’s plenty of reason to believe this team has the right mix for a deep playoff run behind one of the Big Ten’s top offenses and defenses. Additionally, the Ducks’ only defeat came to No. 1 Indiana and just two of the team’s 11 victories came by less than 12 points.

This is the first meeting between Oregon and James Madison on the gridiron. The Dukes are making their first trip to the 12-team playoff, while the Ducks earned appearances in the four-team version in ‘14 and the first 12-team setup last fall.

James Madison vs. Oregon Odds, Details

Location: Autzen Stadium at Eugene, Ore.
Kickoff: Saturday, Dec. 20 at 7:30 p.m. ET
TV: TNT
Spread: Oregon -20.5
Over/Under: 47.5
Announcers: Bob Wischusen, Louis Riddick, Kris Budden, Stormy Buonantony

James Madison vs. Oregon: Keys to Victory

Sep 5, 2025; Louisville, Kentucky, USA; James Madison Dukes quarterback Alonza Barnett III (14) looks to pass against the Louisville Cardinals during the first half at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium. Louisville defeated James Madison 28-14. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Rhodes-Imagn Images© Jamie Rhodes-Imagn Images

Why James Madison Will Win

Make no mistake: James Madison is a massive underdog for a reason. Autzen Stadium is one of the toughest venues in college football, and Oregon’s roster is loaded with blue-chip talent. But upsets happen all of the time in this sport, so the Dukes have a chance just by showing up and doing what they did best all season.

Running back Wayne Knight (1,263 yards) powered a ground game that ranked No. 5 nationally in production and had plenty of success at generating big plays on the ground. If the Dukes can get Knight on track, with quarterback Alonza Barnett III contributing on the ground and through the air, they can shorten this contest and limit Oregon’s possessions.

On the defensive side, James Madison is bringing a standout front to Eugene. Chesney’s defense created havoc all season (36 sacks generated) and ranked No. 2 nationally against the run. Stopping Oregon for all four quarters is a tough ask for any defense, but if the Dukes can generate pressure on passing downs and bend but don’t break, then this game could be significantly closer than most expect in the second half.

With Oregon’s talent edge, James Madison also needs some good fortune on Saturday night. The Dukes need to force a couple of takeaways or score on special teams or defense to have a shot at the upset.

Why Oregon Will Win

Anything can happen in a one-game scenario. However, Oregon is a 20-point favorite for a reason. The Ducks have a massive edge with this game in Eugene, and Lanning’s roster is overflowing with talent on both sides of the ball.

An offense averaging 38.2 points a contest features a potential first-round pick in quarterback Dante Moore, and the receiving corps could potentially get reinforcements with Gary Bryant, Evan Stewart, and Dakorien Moore on the mend from injuries.

Additionally, if James Madison’s standout defensive front finds a way to slow the passing game with the pass rush, the Ducks can simply lean a little more on their size and depth in the trenches. Noah Whittington (774 yards) leads the way for a ground attack averaging 218.4 yards per contest, but Jordon Davison (535 yards) and Dierre Hill (481) will rotate in to give the backfield three capable options.

With Moore and the passing game, combined with a deep stable of running backs, Oregon may simply overwhelm James Madison’s defense with all of its weapons. But just in case the Dukes have success in containing Lanning’s offense, the other side of the ball can step up to ensure the upset hopes are minimal.

Oregon’s defense ranks second in the Big Ten in yards per play allowed (4.2) and is only giving up 14.8 points per contest. The Ducks are stingy against the run (3.2 yards per carry allowed this year), which will make things difficult for a JMU rushing attack averaging 245.8 yards a game on the ground.

James Madison vs. Oregon Prediction:Oregon 41, James Madison 13

James Madison’s defense and rushing attack could have success early on, but Oregon simply has too much firepower and talent to lose at home as a massive favorite.

This story was originally published by Athlon Sports on Dec 20, 2025, where it first appeared in the College Football section. Add Athlon Sports as a Preferred Source by clicking here.

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