Jayden Maiava's Dark-Horse Heisman Case Has One Major Advantage
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USC Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava may not be the first quarterback who comes to mind when discussing the 2026 Heisman Trophy race. But if USC can turn its high expectations into a College Football Playoff berth, the Trojans' quarterback could quickly become one of the most difficult players to overlook.
After entering the 2025 season unranked in the AP Top 25, the Trojans begin their 2026 campaign at No. 14 in the nation. Additionally, multiple respected college football analysts have predicted the Trojans to make the College Football Playoff and knock off some legitimate national title contenders on their way there.
While the season is still young and there is plenty of football to be played, if the Trojans meet these expectations, it would largely be due to the leadership and performance of Maiava.
USC has several games on its schedule that could define its season, and the quarterback will be at the center of each one. If Maiava can consistently deliver against the Trojans' biggest opponents and lead USC into the College Football Playoff, his Heisman case would become nearly impossible to ignore.
A turnaround of that magnitude would make him a central figure in USC's return to national prominence.
Jayden Maiava Has Ground to Make Up in the Heisman Race
According to DraftKings, Maiava currently sits at +2500 to win the Heisman Trophy, which places him well behind the quarterbacks who have entered the season as the favorites.
- CJ Carr (QB, Notre Dame): +700
- Arch Manning (QB, Texas): +750
- Dante Moore (QB, Oregon): +1100
- Darian Mensah (QB, Miami): +1150
- Julian Sayin (QB, Ohio State): +1200
- Jeremiah Smith (WR, Ohio State): +1400
- Jayden Maiava (QB, USC): +2500
Maiava's current odds place him firmly in dark-horse territory. He is not entering the season with the same national attention as Carr, Manning or Moore, and USC still has to prove it can compete at the level expected of it.
Jayden Maiava Has the Tools to Become a Dark-Horse Heisman Candidate
Maiava begins his final collegiate season in Los Angeles after leading the nation with a 91.2 QBR and throwing for 3,711 yards and 24 touchdowns last season. In his first full season as USC's starter, Maiava also averaged 9.2 yards per attempt.
On top of his impressive stats, playing under Lincoln Riley gives Maiava another advantage in his Heisman pursuit. Riley has already coached three Heisman-winning quarterbacks in Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray and Caleb Williams, along with Jalen Hurts, who finished second in the voting in 2019.
USC's offense is built to put its quarterback in position to produce, and Maiava enters the season with a full year of experience running Riley's system.
The biggest question is whether he can take that production to another level when the competition gets tougher and the pressure is at its highest.
Luckily for Maiava, USC's schedule will give him plenty of opportunities to do exactly that.
USC's Schedule Could Give Jayden Maiava the Heisman Stage He Needs
USC has four massive games against Oregon, Penn State, Ohio State and Indiana that could define its season.
A road game at Penn State during the infamous White Out will test Maiava in one of the most hostile road environments in college football. If Maiava can lead USC to a signature win at Penn State while avoiding costly turnovers, it would give him one of the most recognizable wins on his resume.
USC's home Halloween matchup against Ohio State is an even bigger opportunity for Maiava and the Trojans.
The Buckeyes enter the season with one of the nation's most talented rosters and as a favorite to win the national championship. The matchup will be a direct test of whether Maiava can produce against the country's most elite.
Additionally, the matchup with Oregon at home will present a completely different challenge. USC will likely need a strong offensive performance to keep up with the Ducks, which puts even more pressure on Maiava to make plays down the field and capitalize in the red zone.
Indiana is also another potentially important game on USC's schedule, and one that would give Maiava one more opportunity to strengthen his resume against a team that could have major implications on the Trojans' playoff hopes.
A 10-2 or even a 9-3 record with multiple big wins would put the Trojans in position to make the College Football Playoff.
If USC goes 2-1 against Penn State, Ohio State and Oregon, Maiava could come out of that stretch with multiple signature wins against some of the best teams in the country, and more importantly, USC would remain relevant deep into the season.
The higher USC climbs, the more difficult it becomes to separate the Trojans' success from their quarterback.
There is still a long way to go before the Heisman Trophy is decided. At +2500, Maiava is far from the center of the Heisman conversation, but if USC returns to the national stage, his odds may not stay there for long.
A College Football Playoff berth would mean USC had accomplished something the program has struggled to do in recent years. If Maiava is the player leading that turnaround, his Heisman case would be impossible to ignore.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com/college/usc as Jayden Maiava's Dark-Horse Heisman Case Has One Major Advantage.
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