Josh Pate Predicts Alabama Crimson Tide Will Struggle in 2026 After Key Player Losses

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Last season marked the first time the Alabama Crimson Tide made the College Football Playoff under head coach Kalen DeBoer. After a dominant stretch under Nick Saban, winning six national championships, DeBoer has his team back on track, going 11-4.

While their 2025 run eventually ended with a Rose Bowl loss to the Indiana Hoosiers, the Crimson Tide had reestablished themselves as true contenders. The expectations going into 2026 are high, with DraftKings giving Alabama the 11th-best odds (+2500) to win the national championship.

However, not everyone is as high on them. College football analyst Josh Pate predicts that Alabama will take a step back after going 10-2 during the regular season last year.

“10-2 last year was really good, and obviously 9-3 would still be worse, so like, it’s not predicting them to fall off a cliff,” Pate said. “But right now, I got to sit tentatively worse for Alabama than 10-2.”

Over the offseason, the Crimson Tide did lose a handful of notable players. They had 10 players selected in the 2026 NFL Draft. That includes offensive tackle Kadyn Proctor and quarterback Ty Simpson, who were both selected in the first round.

With Simpson gone, Alabama has a quarterback battle between redshirt junior Austin Mack and redshirt freshman Keelon Russell. Mack is the most experienced out of the two, but has just 267 career passing yards.

Alabama also brought in 19 players through the transfer portal while losing 23, putting them at a deficit. According to Rivals, their group ranks 39th nationally and 12th in the SEC.

Whether they ultimately take a step back like Pate predicts will likely depend on who DeBoer chooses as the next quarterback and whether he can effectively replace the talent lost to the NFL and transfer portal.

Related: Tennessee Makes Unfortunate Decision on Nation’s No. 9 Transfer Recruit

This story was originally published by Athlon Sports on Jun 29, 2026, where it first appeared in the College Football section. Add Athlon Sports as a Preferred Source by clicking here.

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