Jumbo Package: Alabama football vs Georgia previews and predictions
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Happy Friday, everyone.
Alabama basketball was without four key players last night but still handled Furman in the opening exhibition game. The game wasn’t streamed anywhere but we had Roger Myers in attendance, and he has your recap here.
Alabama and Georgia will try and dodge a tropical storm tomorrow to get in one of the most anticipated college football matchups of the year. ESPN College GameDay has been moved indoors at Coleman Coliseum, and tailgating has been modified as well. All parties involved will continue to monitor the situation as the storm makes landfall overnight.
On to the football. Your previews:
It is hereby acknowledged that beating the Bulldogs in each of the past two regular seasons didn’t have much staying power. Georgia wound up winning the SEC title both years, including a beatdown of the Tide in the rematch last season that should have sent Bama into a bowl game instead of the College Football Playoff.
But this Alabama team looks different. Better at quarterback, explosive at receiver and making plays on defense. The Tide has shaken off the slow-start annoyance of the early season the last two games, jumping on South Carolina and Mississippi State quickly. Their scoring (49.6 points per game) surpasses even the 2020 offensive juggernaut through five games (48.4).
However, Georgia can score, too. Better than ever under Kirby Smart. The two teams rank 1-2 in the SEC in yards per play (Georgia 7.93, Alabama 7.22) and points per game (Georgia 51.4, Alabama 49.6). A shootout looms.
Dash pick: Alabama 45, Georgia 41. DeBoer goes 6–0 for the first time as coach of the Tide, with a shot at 12–0—and a chance to finally step outside the impossibly long shadow of Nick Saban.
“On paper, Georgia has the much better defense. They give up less than four yards per play. That’s the best in college football. But right now, they haven’t seen anything quite like what Alabama has offensively. (Alabama QB) Keelon Russell is playing the best football of anybody on the entire field, and Georgia’s going to have to blitz, I think, to get home before he lets it go. Kirby Smart is 90-3 in his career when Georgia scores 30 or more, and we’ve got the Bulldogs stopping just short of that. He’s also 2-7 against Alabama and 120-14 against everybody else. So it’s going to be very hard to take the Bulldogs against a really improved Alabama football team in Tuscaloosa.
“I also think Alabama will force a takeaway or two that will ultimately be the difference in what is a three-point game. Look, Georgia brings the better defense to Bryant-Denny on Saturday night, but I think Alabama has the edge in just about everything else. Give me the Tide, 31-28.”
Hummer (Georgia -1.5): For all of his success, Kirby Smart has struggled against Alabama. He’s just 2-7 against the Tide, including 1-2 head-to-head against Kalen DeBoer. This is a classic matchup between the two teams, too. The Bulldogs have an elite defense (No. 1 nationally in yards per play) to counter Alabama’s explosive playmakers and QB. But the difference is that the Bulldogs have been an elite offense so far. They’re third nationally in yards per play, and they have the pieces to attack an Alabama secondary that’s been up and down this season.
Gunner Stockton isn’t as dynamic as Keelon Russell. There’s no debating that. But I like the consistency he’s shown this year, and that’s what you need to win on the road in the SEC. Alabama throws plenty of haymakers — the Tide lead the Power Four in plays of 30-plus yards for a reason — but Georgia endures and pulls out a win. … Georgia 34, Alabama 31.
Oddsmakers have Alabama as a slight favorite over Georgia, but as always, ESPN analytics has its own odds for Saturday’s games.
ESPN’s matchup predictor, which offers a prediction model based on its college football power index and other variables, gives Alabama a 52.6% chance to win. Georgia has a 47.3% chance.
The Crimson Tide are sixth nationally in ESPN’s FPI, the same spot as last week, and are third among SEC teams. Alabama has a 27 overall FPI rating (up from 24.6). Georgia has a 28.2 FPI rating that is second in ESPN’s metrics.
Craig Meyer: Alabama 31, Georgia 24
Austin Curtright: Georgia 31, Alabama 30
John Leuzzi: Alabama 28, Georgia 24
Jordan Mendoza: Alabama 44, Georgia 41
What our experts are saying: “While Kirby Smart’s 2-7 record against Alabama only has so much relevance, the Crimson Tide has managed to beat the Bulldogs in two of their three meetings under Kalen DeBoer. Now, they do so at home and with what looks to be by far the best team of DeBoer’s Tuscaloosa tenure.” — Craig Meyer, USA TODAY Sports
“Georgia has not been probably really tested as much as Alabama has,” Low said. “Kentucky’s obviously a pretty good football team. Mississippi State, even though [Kamario] Taylor was hamstrung, is a good football team. Georgia has just not played anyone. I know Oklahoma was supposed to be good, but Georgia could have scored 60 on them. I do think Bama is a little bit more battle-tested.”
He also pointed out how well Stockton has been throwing the football and how Alabama has been giving up “chunk” plays defending the pass so far this season.
Don’t look for 11-play drives in this one, he said.
“Whoever makes the most explosive plays,” Low said. “I think that will be a key factor.”
This all might be changed a few different times before kickoff, depending on all of the various factors. But for now, assuming the weather isn’t great but not a total dealbreaker, Georgia will be a bit sturdier.
Alabama is far better in the time of possession battle, but it needs the big plays to get things moving, and it won’t get enough of them.
This will be a grind – forget about the kicking game in the expected 20+ mph winds. Georgia’s ability on third downs and its stronger running game will be enough to get through the weather.
Georgia 21, Alabama 20
No. 2 Georgia (+1½) at No. 6 Alabama
Several forces could affect this game. Hurricane Isaias also is looming. President Donald Trump plans to be there. All communication, including coaches’ headsets, could be cut off when Trump is on the move. That sounds like the kind of thing a corrupt person with inside information could take advantage of in betting markets.
Georgia opened as a three-point favorite at sportsbooks. It swung back the other way, as I expected. The Bulldogs have yet to face a QB nearly as good as Bama’s Keelon Russell. Georgia’s defense is excellent, but the Bulldogs always have problems against dynamic quarterbacks like Russell. Bama is my pick.
That last one is from Michael Cunningham of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.
This is a fascinating matchup of two teams loaded with talent. I think most observers would say that Alabama’s offense has the higher ceiling thanks to Russell and a bevy of elite weapons, but it also has the lower floor due to inexperience.
It’s not difficult to see either team winning by a couple of scores. The bull case for Georgia in this one is that they are the more seasoned team and thus less likely to make critical mistakes. If they are play a clean game while forcing a couple of turnovers from Russell, they could get some separation on the scoreboard. The case for Alabama is that Russell simply has more explosive plays in him than the steady but unspectacular Gunner Stockton. We’ve seen what elite QB play can do to even the best college defenses through the years, particularly when the guy is a legitimate dual threat.
As far as what will happen, your guess is as good as mine. The most likely scenario is that these two battle it out per usual. I’ll say that Alabama pulls it out 31-27, and everyone is mad when both teams are ranked in the top 4 afterward.
Of course, that is merely my opinion. Share yours in the comments.
As Nick Kelly writes, the rebuilt offensive line will get its biggest test to date.
The Crimson Tide’s offensive line has been solid so far this season, but Georgia figures to provide one of the toughest tests yet.
The Bulldogs are always tough up front, and that figures to be no different this year. They’re tied for sixth in the SEC in pressures with 93, per Pro Football Focus.
With Jayvin James set to return, Alabama’s offensive line should finally have all starters healthy and able to play together again, something that has only happened in a few games this season.
Will this group prove to be elite and dependable against a tough opponent? Or will it struggle to slow down and move Georgia’s front?
Last, the SEC is discussing a return to the one year residency requirement for intraconference transfers.
In a memo sent to university presidents, chancellors, athletic directors and other campus officials on Aug. 20, the CSC stated:
“The DOI is actively conducting multiple, longer-term investigations into potential cap evasion and NIL-related violations by institutions, student-athletes, and certain third parties. The CSC encourages anyone with relevant information to contact the DOI. Input from athletic department staff on recruiting practices, agent conduct, and questionable business proposals helps the CSC apply the rules fairly by bringing potential violations to light.”
As long as the Big Ten follows suit, this will be a welcome change. LSU would probably disagree, of course.
That’s about it for today. Have a great, and safe, weekend.
Roll Tide.
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