Kalshi odds suggest Lincoln Riley is likely to be fired
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Prediction markets are rapidly evolving from simple forecasting instruments into mainstream financial platforms. Across media, sports, and finance, markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket are appearing on everyday screens, including sports.
One of Kalshi’s latest markets predicts whether the head football coach of the University of Southern California, Lincoln Riley, will be fired, and the odds are against him.
Kalshi Odds Don’t Look Good
Sports Illustrated’s Samuel Profeta highlighted the fictional scenario in an article posted Wednesday, but the USC coach hasn’t had the promising career many hoped for when he signed on in 2022, making his dismissal seem possible.
“Lincoln Riley’s tenure at USC hasn’t seen the success that many had hoped for,” Profeta said. “After a 5-1 start to this season and a sketchy run through the Big Ten schedule to this point, Riley is trending up on Kalshi’s college football coaches fired market. Riley is up to a 67% chance that USC fires him
“Riley came into the season with a murky 21% chance and has risen to 46% following USC’s start to the season. Kalshi settles the market on whether he’s with the team or not by February 1, 2027. A $10 trade on Riley being out by then profits $4.54.”
Make-or-break
The Trojans fall in the middle of the pack in the Big Ten rankings, and after the last four seasons, Riley has yet to make the College Football Playoffs. With only a 2-2 bowl record, he has been ranked top 15 only three times and finished unranked in those seasons.
Despite their 5-1 start, they haven’t beaten any notable conference opponent aside from Saturday’s win over the Washington Huskies, which they trailed most of the game. Profeta, unimpressed, sees this season as a “make-or-break” year for the Trojans’ head coach.
“This is a make-or-break season for Lincoln Riley at USC, as he has not had the success that many were expecting when USC hired him in 2022,” Profeta added.
The Trojans have a strong schedule ahead with road games against Penn State, Wisconsin, Indiana, and UCLA and a home game against Ohio State.
It will be interesting to see the market fluctuations on Riley, as the Trojans’ offense is off to a great start, averaging 37.3 points per game this season and 31.3 in Big Ten play, but lack defensive tenacity.
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