Lincoln Riley halted Notre Dame rivalry but might get fired in 2026

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The discontinuation of the USC football series against Notre Dame is sad, heartbreaking, and upsetting on various levels, primarily because USC and Notre Dame fans lose a special rivalry and a unique college football experience. Yet, it’s so much worse when you consider the larger context and implications surrounding the story, beginning with Lincoln Riley. I’m not sure people have grasped just how absurd and, more importantly, unnecessary this move really is.

Notre Dame and USC won’t play in regular season until at least 2030

As Ross Dellenger of Yahoo! Sports reported, USC and Notre Dame are working on a restart of the series no earlier than 2030. Stop and absorb that simple point. USC and Notre Dame won’t play each other in the regular season for the next four years at minimum.

Does this mean Lincoln Riley has a guaranteed four more years?

Jen Cohen wants to make Lincoln Riley happy. That’s part of why USC wouldn’t allow a late-season game to be played against Notre Dame. However, with this four-year blackout of the Notre Dame rivalry, does this mean Lincoln Riley gets to coach four more years at USC? Surely that cannot be the case if Riley doesn’t produce elite results.

2026 is a long way from 2030

The 2026 season feels like a very urgent time for Lincoln Riley at USC. The ballyhooed 2026 recruiting class was constantly used as a reason to keep Riley around, even though he has failed to lift USC to the playoff in each of his five seasons. That job performance would get an Alabama coach fired. It would get an LSU coach fired. It would get an Ohio State coach fired. USC has been extraordinarily patient with Riley and is giving him a 2026 season other schools would not offer.

2027 should be the absolute limit for Lincoln Riley at USC

I personally think 2026 should be make-or-break for Lincoln Riley, but let’s acknowledge the point that USC needs a second elite recruiting cycle in 2027 to really give the coach all the resources he needs for a national championship run. Fair enough. I can go along with that, even though I personally disagree.

If Riley doesn’t get USC to the playoff by 2027, he should 10,000 percent be gone. There is absolutely no way Lincoln Riley should coach USC in 2028, let alone 2029 or 2030, if he doesn’t take USC to the playoff in the next two seasons.

What Jen Cohen and USC should have done

Jen Cohen and USC should have swallowed hard and accepted the 2026-2027 two-year agreement with late-season games. It’s not what Lincoln Riley wanted, but that’s the point: Riley doesn’t deserve to be fully catered to in the next two seasons. Riley should be coaching for his job the next two seasons. If Riley does well, then — only then — should Jen Cohen fully accommodate him and his desires. This way, if USC falters in 2026 and 2027, USC will enter 2028 without Riley, but the Notre Dame series will still be discontinued. USC clearly did not play its cards well or smartly. A two-year extension was the obvious move, waiting to see if Riley would still coach the Trojans after those two seasons based on on-field results.

Fewer excuses

With Notre Dame not on the USC schedule in 2026, it’s plain that Lincoln Riley has far fewer excuses. Not going 10-2 in 2026 is an absolute failure, barring a Biblical plague of injuries or a season-ending Week 2 injury to Jayden Maiava, something on that scale.

Bottom line

Lincoln Riley’s USC teams have been soft. Not wanting to play Notre Dame late in the season — only accepting an early-season arrangement — reinforces the narrative that Riley himself is soft. It’s up to Riley to prove his USC teams can handle the heat. If the Trojans fall short in 2026, they will be in a position where they did something to accommodate their underperforming head coach, and yet might face the need to fire that same coach.

See how dumb this is? USC does not look good in this dispute with Notre Dame.

Notre Dame was not all-in

As something of a postscript to all this: Though Lincoln Riley does deserve a ton of blame — we can say it — for the suspension of the Notre Dame series, I did find it amusing (albeit in a pathetic sort of way) that a Notre Dame reporter said the Irish were “all in” on continuing the series.

Empirically and objectively, that’s not true.

If Notre Dame really was “all in” (translated: whatever it takes, whatever the consequences) on continuing, it simply would have accepted USC’s terms. It didn’t. USC is not the good guy. Lincoln Riley definitely is a coward and a softy. Let’s not make Notre Dame the good guys here, however. ND — like USC — wanted a continuation only on its own terms, not USC’s. If you want to say USC deserves most of the blame, fine. Just not all of it. Notre Dame had a chance to save the series but turned it down, because the Irish want things only their way, not anyone else’s way.

This article originally appeared on Trojans Wire: Lincoln Riley stopped Notre Dame-USC, but will he be around in 2030?

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