Longhorns Fans guide to CFP Rooting Interests: Chaos outside the SEC is key

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As the Longhornshead into the home stretch of the season, and it’s about that time where people start to CFP math. Longhorn fans are trying to figure out if Texas would make the SEC title if they win out, if they can lose one of the three left and still make the CFP and much more. It’s all very uncertain math, plainly because of the subjective nature of the CFP selection process, but we can make some educated guesses. 

Obviously, winning out would almost assuredly guarantee Texas a spot not only in the CFP, but likely at least a home game in the first round. However, right now, let’s look away from the Longhorns and towards the rest of the CFP landscape and figure out what Longhorn fans should be watching the rest of the way. There is chaos around the country, but let’s start in the SEC. 

Who should Texas fans root against in SEC?

Despite the logjam at the top of the conference, the rooting interest for Longhorn fans are rather straight forward. Obviously, Texas winning out is the cleanest path forward, but if they were to lose this weekend to Georgia, there is still a path to the CFP. It starts this weekend in Tuscaloosa, when Oklahoma heads down there to take on the Crimson Tide. It would help clear some things up if Oklahoma fell in that game and essentially eliminated themselves from CFP contention. 

Then the attention can turn more towards the final week of the season, when Tennessee faces off against Vanderbilt. The Volunteers getting the win there would help the Longhorns have more wiggle room with the head-to-head win over Vanderbilt. If both Oklahoma and Vanderbilt lose one more game, there is very little doubt that Texas would finish any lower than 5th in the SEC, which would give them a path to the CFP. 

Outside of those two specific examples it’s very clear what Texas needs in the SEC: chaos. Whether that’s Alabama falling to Auburn or Texas A&M falling to South Carolina, Texas needs chaos to ensure they are standing at the end. The first goal is for Texas to at least put them in the mix with a 2-1 finish to the year, then it’s about getting some help in conference. However, in this scenario, it’s actually more important what happens outside in the SEC than inside it. 

Who should Texas fans root against outside SEC?

This is obviously a much more complicated question, so we will take it conference by conference. In the B1G, Texas fans should be hoping for just three B1G teams to make the CFP. For that to happen, I believe USC needs to fall to Oregon and Michigan needs to lose to Ohio State. If that happens, it puts everyone outside of Indiana, Ohio State and Oregon 9-3 or worse, giving Texas an opening to sneak in as a 5th SEC team. 

In the ACC, as I see it, there is really one path for the ACC to get more than one team in the CFP. If Georgia Tech can win out, including beating Georgia, but then fall to someone like Virginia or Louisville in the SEC title game, that could be the way the ACC gets two. However, given how last week played out for the ACC in the CFP rankings, I expect one ACC team in the CFP. There’s a world where the ACC gets zero teams in there, but that doesn’t change the math for the Longhorns. 

The Big 12 is much like the ACC. There are paths for them to get two teams into the dance, however the paths aren’t plentiful. I believe if the winner of Cincinnati-BYU makes the Big 12 title and beats Texas Tech, there would be a solid argument for two Big 12 teams. There is a world where Utah can sneak in as an at-large, but I believe Texas Tech has 20+ point wins over BYU and Utah could hurt them. The Big 12 is more likely than the ACC to get two teams, but I tend to believe this will be a one-bid league as well, helping the Longhorns. 

The most obvious piece of this is Notre Dame losing to Pitt this weekend would be advantageous for the Longhorns. Not only would it move them up in the rankings, but would give a very clear path for the SEC to get five teams in the CFP. If Oklahoma loses to Bama and Vanderbilt loses to Tennessee, a 9-3 Texas would be right there in the fifth spot and in the CFP. 

Texas Football must keep winning

Now, it needs to be said that for any of this to matter, the Longhorns have to AT LEAST go 9-3. They lose to Georgia and Texas A&M, all of that is moot and the Longhorns will be prepping for a bowl game. If the Longhorns were to go 10-2, I believe there is very little to no chance Texas will miss the CFP. However, all of this hinges on the Longhorns ability to at least win two of the final three matchups. 

If all of that was convoluted, you would be right, so let me simplify this a little bit. Texas fans should be cheering for Oklahoma and Vanderbilt to lose at least one more game, to give Texas slightly more breathing room. The rest of the SEC having a few upsets would help as well, but is unlikely to create a clear path to the CFP, unless Ole Miss, Georgia or Alabama were to lose two of their final three games. 

Outside the SEC, it’s just about every other conference cannibalizing each other. If the B1G finishes with just three teams, the Big 12 and ACC finish with one team each and Notre Dame falls, it would leave 6 open spots up for grabs. That would almost guarantee a 9-3 Longhorn team a spot in the dance. That is obviously asking for quite a bit, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility either. 

This comes down to Texas. If they finish the season 10-2, they will be in the CFP, I can almost promise you. If they finish 9-3, they will have an opening as long as a few things break their way. Long story short, if the Longhorns win out, Longhorn fans don’t have to worry about any of that. If they lose on Saturday, then it’s time to start watching other teams and see if the Longhorns can back their way into the CFP.

This article originally appeared on Longhorns Wire: With Texas Football on CFP bubble, who should fans root against?

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