March Madness expansion is harmless. CFP expansion changes the sport
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Here’s what you must realize about NCAA Tournament expansion, which college sports leaders insist on cramming down our throats.
A 76-team tournament, compared to 68 teams, won’t make the college basketball season better. It also won’t make it substantially worse.
Adding eight bids won’t alter the season much at all. The season already exists as a mostly low-stakes affair until March. That won’t change.
If you watched Houston-Kansas at 9 o’clock Eastern on a Big Monday in February, you’re either a college hoops junkie, or you’re gambling. Or, both.
No judgment, but let’s be honest, that single contest didn’t meaningfully alter either team’s fate. Any power conference team with a pulse is making the Big Dance, whether the field stays at 68 or goes to 76.
I have no appetite for NCAA Tournament expansion. It’s wholly unnecessary and designed to reward barely-above-.500 teams from power conferences.
But, much as I lack enthusiasm for bracket expansion, I also can acknowledge its impact probably will be minimal.
After the field expands, a handful more mediocre power teams will qualify and make a brief March Madness appearance. Maybe, another mid-major or two will gain entry. But, expanding the field from 68 to 76 won’t significantly reshape the sport or its fandom.
The diehards still will tune in regularly. The casuals will climb aboard once March arrives, as conference tournaments approach. The March Madness passersby and only-interested-because-of-their-bracket types will wander in on the Thursday of the first round, once the play-in games (or, whatever we’re calling them) are completed.
Nothing is gained from tournament expansion, other than a few more shekels. Not much is lost, either.
That’s what makes the 76-team NCAA Tournament proposal so different from College Football Playoff expansion talks.
A 24-team CFP — that’s playoff size the Big Ten and some other stakeholders favor — would significantly reshape college football.
The sport’s high-stakes regular season hangs in the balance, as conference commissioners continue to debate CFP size, format and access.
One SEC coach gives CFP expansion warning
It’s almost become an unwritten rule every reporter follows: If you secure an exclusive offseason interview with a coach, you must ask him what size playoff he prefers.
I followed that tacit agreement when I sat down with Texas A&M coach Mike Elko recently.
When I asked Elko why coaches desire a bigger playoff, he answered humorously and candidly: Coaches think a bigger playoff will help their job security.
“The head coach who wants to keep his job, (he’ll say) the right size is 45 teams or however many we can possibly fit in it,” Elko told me, “because (making the playoff) is becoming such a marker for the premier programs, which is, either you’re in, or you’re out. And if you’re out, you failed.”
Bingo. And, coaches don’t like copping to failure.
If the playoff’s shape and format were left in coaches’ hands, they’d default to self-preservation.
Coaches’ self-protection tendencies aside, what’s the best postseason direction?
Elko cautioned against growing the playoff too much, at the risk of affecting the regular season’s stakes.
“As a college football fan and maybe a little bit of a guy who has studied the game, you just want to be careful that we don’t get too big, too fast,” Elko said.
Amen. Preach on.
“You have to keep the regular season meaningful,” Elko said. “We cannot turn this into college basketball. We’ll lose everything that college football has ever been about.”
That’s the whole enchilada.
CFP cannot try to be March Madness. They’re different sports.
College basketball is a postseason sport that peaks in March. The whole enterprise is built around the tournament.
College football is different. Its regular season is the best season in all of sports. Its postseason has always paled in comparison.
The season peaks in Thanksgiving rivalry week, not in the playoff.
Playoff reimagination should not come at the regular season’s expense.
College football revolves around fall Saturdays, tailgates on college campuses, the every-game-matters stakes, and hating your rivals.
The stakes are super high, because, even if you’re Alabama, lose to a pair of .500 teams, and you could land on the wrong side of the 12-team playoff’s cutline. (See 2024.)
Even if you’re Notre Dame, lose to the two best teams on your schedule, and you’re in trouble. (See 2025.)
A 12-team playoff heightens the regular season drama. If stakeholders weren’t so desperate to squeeze more revenue out of the playoff, there’s a good argument to stay at 12.
Growing the playoff from four to 12 retained college football’s postseason exclusivity, while expanding access.
Sixteen teams might still strike a good balance of growing the playoff and squeezing out some more dollars without torpedoing the regular season.
At 24 teams, you’ve become college hoops.
At 24 teams, we’d see 8-4 teams qualifying.
At that point, it’s not exclusive.
At that point, you’re OK to attend your cousin’s September wedding, because the games don’t matter all that much until December. Lose to Vanderbilt in October, and it’s no sweat.
Just beat three cupcakes, plus a few decent teams, eight wins, and, voila, here’s your playoff bid.
At that point, the regular season is filler.
In other words, you’re college basketball.
Doubling the playoff’s from 12 to 24 teams perhaps would make December a bit better. It’d make October a lot worse. That’s not a worthy trade.
College basketball growing its tournament will weaken the bubble, but it won’t change the sport. For college football, the stakes are higher for altering the playoff. At 24 teams, you’re not just diluting the quality of the bubble. You’d be changing the sport so it becomes college basketball, a sport that commands attention for one month only.
Blake Toppmeyer is the USA TODAY Network’s senior national college football columnist. Email him at BToppmeyer@gannett.com and follow him on X @btoppmeyer.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: CFP expansion to 24 teams would fundamentally alter college football
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