MC&J: Week 5 in college football hands Ohio State a tough road test

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Last week ATS: 11-8 (4-5 National, 7-3 B1G)

Season ATS: 52-41 (19-13 National, 33-28 B1G)

Last week started off a little rough, but the late afternoon and evening helped push our record for the week to a few games above .500. It would have been even better had Penn State not decided to quit playing in the second half against Wisconsin.

There are some fun games on the schedule this week. Not exactly the sexiest matchups but ones that could definitely be entertaining. Then again, in the end what is truly the most entertaining is covering the spread.

National Games

No. 7 Alabama (-5.5) v. No. 16 Mississippi State – 12:00 p.m. ET – ABC

This likely will be the most entertaining game of the week. Alabama has scored at least 40 points in every game this season, while Mississippi State has put at least 31 on the scoreboard in each of their four games.

Keelon Russell has looked good in his first season as starting quarterback for the Crimson Tide, tossing eight touchdowns and adding three more on the ground.

One of the surprises of the early season has been the play of Mississippi State. Kamario Taylor looks like a serious threat to the Heisman Trophy with at least three passing touchdowns in each of the first four games of the season.

The Bulldogs are coming off a solid win over Missouri last week. If Mississippi State can beat Alabama for the first time since 2007, the Bulldogs will have a definite path to the College Football Playoff.

I feel more confident in getting points with Mississippi State than laying them with Alabama. This game could come down to who has the football last. The combination of Taylor and running back Fluff Bothwell will be just a little too much for the Crimson Tide to handle.

Mississippi State 38, Alabama 31

No. 8 Florida (-4.5) v. No. 25 Missouri – 3:30 p.m. ET – ABC

Normally I would look at this as a classic letdown spot for Florida. I just don’t think Missouri is quite good enough to challenge the Gators, even with this game being in Columbia.

Ole Miss transfer quarterback Austin Simmons and wide receiver Cayden Lee have started fast with the Tigers, but I’m not convinced Missouri is a complete enough team to upset Florida.

Jon Sumrall has hit the ground running in Gainesville, as the Gators have scored at least 44 points in each of their first four games. Jadan Baugh already has 600 yards and 11 touchdowns this year, while Aaron Philo is giving Florida competent quarterback play.

Why is Missouri still ranked? Just because the Tigers lost a close game to Mississippi State? At least we won’t have to worry about Missouri being ranked after this week since the Gators are going to win this game by at least a touchdown.

Florida 34, Missouri 24

No. 4 Miami (FL) (-16.5) v. Clemson – 7:30 p.m. ET – ABC

Clemson should feel thrilled to be 3-1 right now. The Tigers were trailing North Carolina before a lengthy weather delay. Then last week, a punt return touchdown late in the third quarter against Cal allowed Clemson to take the lead for good.

Dabo Swinney’s team is still deeply flawed. Tait Reynolds is still incredibly green at quarterback, which will be a big problem against an athletic Miami defense this week.

Miami has played nobody so far this season. That won’t change this week since Clemson isn’t nearly as good as their record might indicate. The problem for the Hurricanes is this will be their first game this season in a tough environment.

By being able to sleepwalk through their first four games, Miami could face some early resistance. The Hurricanes will still win, I just don’t see it happening by at least 17 points.

Miami 33, Clemson 21

B1G Games

Penn State (-2.5) v. Northwestern – Friday 8:00 p.m. ET – FOX

Penn State inexplicably blew last week’s game against Wisconsin. After jumping out to a 17-0 lead on the Badgers, Matt Campbell’s team was outscored 24-3 over the last 31 minutes of the game. Quarterback Rocco Becht was dreadful. The former Iowa State quarterback completed just 12 of 29 passes for 114 yards.

Northwestern may have lost last week to Indiana, but the Wildcats pushed the Hoosiers all night long. Aiden Chiles got better as the game went on, finishing with 293 yards passing and three total touchdowns. This will be Northwestern’s first game in the renovated Ryan Field, so I expect the Wildcats to be playing with a lot of juice on Friday night.

The Nittany Lions were only being looked at as a possible playoff contender because of their insanely weak schedule this year. Their hopes of making the CFP are pretty much erased after the loss to the Badgers.

Honestly, I don’t even think Penn State is all that good of a team and it shows on Friday night as they lose their second straight game.

Northwestern 27, Penn State 20

Michigan (-5.5) v. Minnesota – 12:00 p.m. ET – FOX

Imagine the kind of hype Minnesota would be getting right now had they not lost at home to Mississippi State last month. The defeat isn’t looking as bad since the Bulldogs are still undefeated this season.

Last week the Golden Gophers notched an impressive win when they went out to Seattle and beat Washington. Quarterback Drake Lindsey threw three touchdowns in the victory.

Michigan really should be 2-2 on the season but the refs gifted them a win against Western Michigan. At least the Wolverines got a little bit of payback when Iowa beat them on the last play of the game last week. Bryce Underwood didn’t look bad against a tough Hawkeyes defense, throwing for a season-high 276 yards.

I’m a bit surprised by this line. I don’t trust Michigan to beat Minnesota here, let alone by at least six points. Drake Lindsey makes better decisions than Underwood, and Anthony Smith and the defense of the Golden Gophers should be able to put pressure on the Michigan quarterback, forcing him into turning the football over.

Minnesota 24, Michigan 17

No. 5 Ohio State (-14.5) v No. 14 Iowa – 3:30 p.m. ET – CBS

The thought of the Buckeyes heading to Iowa City has to have Ohio State fans breaking out in hives after what the Hawkeyes did to the Buckeyes at Kinnick in 2017, which is the last time Ohio State played there. Luckily this year should see a different script.

While some in Buckeye Nation thinks this team doesn’t have a shot at winning a national championship, as long as Jeremiah Smith continues to play out of his mind, Ohio State is a threat. If the Buckeyes can get another receiver or two to step up to compliment Smith, then Ryan Day’s team gets even scarier.

The key to the team’s championship hopes is going to be the defense. Last week Matt Patricia’s group wasn’t at their best, giving up 19 points and 462 yards to Illinois. Ohio State still won by 23 points, so the relatively easy victory made a subpar performance easier to swallow.

Iowa isn’t a team that is going to want to trade touchdowns with the Buckeyes. Quarterback Hank Brown has been solid so far but it’s not like the defense can’t force him into mistakes. Expect linebacker Riley Pettijohn and safety Jaylen McClain to show why they are the leaders of the defense.

The last time these two programs met when they were both ranked in the top-15 was in 2006, a game Ohio State won 38-17. I’ll bank on history repeating itself 20 years later.

Ohio State 38, Iowa 17

Rapid Fire Picks

National

No. 3 Notre Dame (-21.5) v. North Carolina – 12:00 p.m. ET – ESPN

Notre Dame 35, North Carolina 10

Auburn v. No. 17 Tennessee (-7.5) – 3:30 p.m. ET – ESPN

Tennessee 31, Auburn 20

No. 10 BYU (-6.5) v. TCU – 7:00 p.m. ET – ESPN

BYU 28, TCU 24

No. 12 Texas Tech (-13.5) v. Colorado – 7:30 p.m. ET – FOX

Texas Tech 37, Colorado 17

B1G

Michigan State v. Wisconsin (-9.5) – 12:30 p.m. ET – BTN

Wisconsin 27, Michigan State 14

Maryland v. Nebraska (-14.5) – 4:00 p.m. ET – FS1

Nebraska 41, Maryland 17

Purdue v. Illinois (-10.5) – 4:15 p.m. ET – BTN

Illinois 42, Purdue 24

Washington v. No. 18 USC (-9.5) – 7:30 p.m. ET – NBC

USC 38, USC 21

No. 6 Indiana (-24.5) v. Rutgers – 8:00 p.m. ET – BTN

Indiana 45, Rutgers 13

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