Men’s College Basketball Bracketology for March 3, 2026
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Duke (East), Michigan (Midwest), Arizona (West), and UConn (South) remain the four No. 1 seeds in the first bracket of the Month of Madness, but that seed line is just about the only stable one at the moment. And even it may not remain so, given how Florida (in particular), Michigan State, and Houston are pushing to usurp the Huskies during the closing stretch. UConn’s head-to-head win over the Gators in the Jimmy V Classic is looming large in the race for the No. 4 spot overall.
The Gators, Spartans, Cougars, and Illinois all sit on the 2 line, with two new 3 seeds—Texas Tech (up from a 4) and Iowa State (down from a 2) joining holdovers Purdue and Nebraska. There are also two new 4 seeds, with Gonzaga dropping down and Alabama jumping up to join Kansas and Virginia. Vanderbilt drops down to the 5 line alongside St. John’s, Arkansas, and North Carolina.
There are three new at-large teams today with Ohio State avoiding Dayton as the one of the Last Four Byes, and Santa Clara and New Mexico joining TCU and San Diego State in a very Western First Four. Auburn, Cal, and Indiana all drop out. The 15-14 Tigers are the first team out, thanks to their five Quad 1 wins and pair of 1A wins (at Florida and over St. John’s in Las Vegas), but I wonder if those will matter as much as a 5-10 overall record away from the Plains and the sheer number of losses. Complicating matters is the fact that the average of Auburn’s metrics plug them into the field of 68 as a relatively safe 10 seed.
There is still much to play for over the final six days of the regular season, and I’ll have a look at the midweek TV schedule after today’s full bracket and rundown.
Check out the midweek episode of College Basketball Coast to Coast, featuring lots of top of the bracket and bubble talk.
NOTE: Changes since Friday’s projection are noted with (★) for new entrants, (▲) for teams moving up one or more seed lines, and (▼) for teams moving down one or more seed lines.
(1) East (Washington, D.C., Fri./Sun.)
Greenville (Thurs./Sat.)
(1) Duke (ACC)
★(16) Tennessee State (OVC)
▼(8) UCF
(9) Georgia
Portland (Thurs./Sat.)
▼(5) Vanderbilt
(12) Belmont (MVC)
(4) Kansas
(13) Liberty (CUSA)
St. Louis (Fri./Sun.)
▲(6) Saint Mary’s
▼(11) UCLA
▼(3) Iowa State
(14) North Dakota State (Summit)
Buffalo (Thurs./Sat.)
▼(7) Villanova
(10) Texas A&M
▲(2) Michigan State
(15) Merrimack (MAAC)
(4) South (Houston, Thurs./Sat.)
Philadelphia (Fri./Sun.)
(1) UConn (Big East)
(16) LIU (NEC)/UMBC (AE)
▲(8) Miami (Fla.)
▼(9) Iowa
Tampa (Fri./Sun.)
(5) North Carolina
▼(12) Miami (Ohio) (MAC)
▲(4) Alabama
(13) Stephen F. Austin (Southland)
Philadelphia (Fri./Sun.)
▼(6) Tennessee
—/★(11) TCU/New Mexico
▼(3) Purdue
(14) Navy (Patriot)
Oklahoma City (Thurs./Sat.)
▲(7) Kentucky
▼(10) SMU
▲(2) Houston
★(15) Central Arkansas (ASUN)
(2) Midwest (Chicago, Fri./Sun.)
Buffalo (Thurs./Sat.)
(1) Michigan (Big Ten)
★/—(16) Howard (MEAC)/Bethune-Cookman (SWAC)
▲(8) Clemson
▲(9) Missouri
San Diego (Fri./Sun.)
(5) Arkansas
(12) High Point (Big South)
(4) Virginia
(13) UNCW (CAA)
Oklahoma City (Thurs./Sat.)
▲(6) Wisconsin
▲(11) South Florida (American)
▲(3) Texas Tech
(14) UC Irvine (Big West)
Tampa (Fri./Sun.)
(7) Saint Louis (A 10)
★(10) Ohio State
(2) Florida (SEC)
(15) ETSU (SoCon)
(3) West (San José, Thurs./Sat.)
San Diego (Fri./Sun.)
(1) Arizona (Big 12)
▼(16) Portland State (Big Sky)
▼(8) Utah State (MW)
▼(9) NC State
Portland (Thurs./Sat.)
▲(5) St. John’s
(12) Yale (Ivy)
▼(4) Gonzaga (WCC)
(13) Utah Valley (WAC)
Greenville (Thurs./Sat.)
(6) BYU
★/★(11) Santa Clara/San Diego State
(3) Nebraska
★(14) Troy (Sun Belt)
St. Louis (Fri./Sun.)
▼(7) Louisville
▲(10) Texas
(2) Illinois
(15) Wright State (Horizon)
Rundown
Last Four Byes: SMU, Texas A&M, Ohio State, UCLA
Last Four IN: Santa Clara, TCU, New Mexico, San Diego State
First Four OUT: Auburn, Indiana, VCU, Virginia Tech
Next Four Out: West Virginia, Cal, USC, Cincinnati
On Deck: Seton Hall, Boise State, Tulsa, Akron
ARRIVALS (7): Central Arkansas (ASUN), Howard (MEAC), New Mexico, Ohio State, Santa Clara, Tennessee State (OVC), Troy (Sun Belt)
DEPARTURES: Auburn, Austin Peay (ASUN), Cal, Indiana, Marshall (Sun Belt), Morehead State (OVC), Morgan State (MEAC)
Conference Breakdown
SEC (10): Florida (auto bid), Alabama, Vanderbilt, Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky, Georgia, Missouri, Texas, Texas A&M
Big Ten (9): Michigan (auto bid), Michigan State, Illinois, Purdue, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Iowa, Ohio State, UCLA
ACC (8): Duke (auto bid), Virginia, North Carolina, Louisville, Clemson, Miami (Fla.), NC State, SMU
Big 12 (8): Arizona (auto bid), Houston, Texas Tech, Iowa State, Kansas, BYU, UCF, TCU (First Four)
Big East (3): UConn (auto bid), St. John’s, Villanova
MW (3): Utah State (auto bid), New Mexico (First Four), San Diego State (First Four)
WCC (2): Gonzaga (auto bid), Saint Mary’s, Santa Clara (First Four)
25 one-bid conferences
Midweek Games to Watch
- All times are p.m. Eastern, unless noted.
- Games are listed in rough order of bracket importance with standout games in bold.
- Teams in the field are preceded by their seed number (1) to (16).
- Teams out of the bracket but still alive for an at-large are marked with an (OUT).
- This list includes regular-season games only. Check Conference Tournament Central for a daily schedule for elimination games.
Tuesday
(8) Clemson at (5) North Carolina, 7 (ESPN)
(7) Kentucky at (10) Texas A&M, 7 (ESPN2)
(4) Alabama at (9) Georgia, 6:30 (ESPN News)
(11) TCU at (3) Texas Tech, 7 (FS1)
(6) Tennessee at South Carolina, 6 (SECN)
(9) Missouri at Oklahoma, 6 (ESPNU)
(OUT) Seton Hall at Xavier, 7 (TruTV)
(OUT) Wake Forest at (4) Virginia, 7 (ACCN)
(OUT) Oklahoma State at (9) UCF, 7 (ESPN+ ($))
Georgetown at (5) St. John’s, 7 (Peacock ($)/NBCSN)
George Mason at (OUT) VCU, 7 (CBSSN)
Toledo at (12) Miami (Ohio), 7 (ESPN+ ($))
(OUT) Akron at Central Michigan, 7 (ESPN+ ($))
(13) UNCW at Elon, 7 (FloHoops ($))
(16) UMBC at NJIT, 6 (ESPN+ ($))
The teams with the most to play for during the early part of Tuesday evening are A&M and TCU, since both are trying to get a bit more bubble breathing room. Clemson has started to pull out of its late skid, but don’t expect the Tigers’ improvement to continue with a win in Chapel Hill. Georgia would also like to boost its chances with a home win over a Bama side that is aiming to consolidate its position in the top 16.
Mississippi State at (2) Florida, 8 (SECN)
(OUT) West Virginia at Kansas State, 8 (ESPN+ ($))
The Gators’ hopes for a 1 seed will be just about over with a home loss to a bad Miss. State team. The Mountaineers’ at-large chances will be almost toast with a loss at K-State.
(3) Nebraska at (11) UCLA, 11 (FS1)
(6) BYU at (OUT) Cincinnati, 9 (ESPN2)
(11) San Diego State at (OUT) Boise State, 9 (CBSSN)
(8) Utah State at UNLV, 11 (CBSSN)
(4) Kansas at Arizona State, 9 (FS1)
Oregon at (2) Illinois, 9 (Peacock ($)/NBCSN)
Syracuse at (7) Louisville, 9 (ACCN)
LSU at (OUT) Auburn, 10 (SECN)
Boston College at (OUT) Virginia Tech, 9 (ESPNU)
(OUT) Grand Canyon at Air Force, 9 (MWN)
(OUT) Nevada at Wyoming, 10 (MWN)
The Bruins have done a good job in topping Big Ten contenders at Pauley, and they’ll look to add a win over the Huskers to ones over Purdue and Illinois, which would help boost UCLA’s position. In the Big 12, the Bearcats can take a big step toward the field of 68 by beating the Cougars at home. BYU has dropped three of four with a regular-season home finale against Texas Tech looming on Saturday.
With two Mountain West teams in the First Four and several others still hanging around the bubble, keep an eye on the late Tuesday night schedule. The only at-large contender from the conference not in action is New Mexico, who plays Wednesday night.
Wednesday
(10) Texas at (5) Arkansas, 7 (ESPN2)
(8) Miami (Fla.) at (10) SMU, 7 (ACCN)
(10) Ohio State at Penn State, 7:30 (Peacock ($))
(OUT) Cal at Georgia Tech, 7 (ESPNU)
Minnesota at (OUT) Indiana, 6:30 (BTN)
The Razorbacks need a huge bounce-back-type performance against the Longhorns following what has to be viewed as a chastening loss in Gainesville on Saturday. But Texas has its own hopes of improving its seed with a win in Fayetteville. Two of the ACC’s middle class take center stage in Dallas, with the Mustangs needing a win badly after getting swept out of the Bay Area over the weekend. While the Golden Bears beat SMU, they followed the victory up by losing to a bad Pitt team. That knocked Cal out of the bracket, and Mark Madsen’s club would drop further with a loss in Atlanta.
We might see a switcheroo in the Big Ten depending on how the Buckeyes perform in State College, where the Nittany Lions defeated Iowa on Saturday, and what the Hoosiers do at home against the Golden Gophers.
(7) Villanova at DePaul, 8 (Peacock ($))
(3) Purdue at Northwestern, 8:30 (BTN)
Maryland at (6) Wisconsin, 8 (FS1)
Don’t look now but the Blue Demons are three games over .500. Unfortunately, their NET is barely in the top 100, so they’ll need to beat visiting Nova and do a whole lot more to get into the at-large picture.
The Boilermakers can’t possibly lose to the Wildcats, can they? It’s a similar story for the Badgers, but at least they play the Terps in Madison.
(5) Vanderbilt at Mississippi, 9 (SECN+)
(OUT) Stanford at Notre Dame, 9 (ESPNU)
(OUT) Florida State at Pitt, 9 (ACCN)
(OUT) Baylor at (2) Houston, 9 (ESPN2)
Both the Seminoles and Bears are in the “well, if Auburn is one game over .500 and under consideration, we should look at them too” category. Of course, Baylor is truly .500, since one of their 15 wins came against a non-D1 squad.
Colorado State at (11) New Mexico, 10 (CBSSN)
(OUT) USC at Washington, 10:30 (BTN)
The Lobos will look to defend the Pit from the Rams and hang around in Friday’s bracket, while the Trojans’ chances will take a further hit with a loss in Seattle.
Thursday
(OUT) Tulsa at East Carolina, 7 (ESPNU)
(16) Howard at Norfolk State, 7 (ESPN+ ($))
Louisiana Tech at (13) Liberty, 7 (ESPN+ ($))
While the Golden Hurricane’s at-large chances are slender at this point, they can’t lose to a Pirate team that’s looking to sneak into the American Conference’s top 10, which would put them in next week’s league tournament. The MEAC regular-season concludes tonight with the Bison having already secured a share of the regular-season title. But they’ll need to win in Norfolk to secure the No. 1 seed when they head back for the conference tournament next week.
(1) Michigan at (9) Iowa, 8 (Peacock ($)/NBCSN)
Rutgers at (2) Michigan State, 8 (FS1)
(13) Utah Valley at Southern Utah, 8:30 (ESPN+ ($))
After losing in Happy Valley on Saturday, the Hawkeyes could really use an unexpected upset win over the Wolverines, while the newest 2 seed, the Spartans, will give some ground back if they lose at home to the Scarlet Knights.
The other Wolverines head to Cedar City for their last regular-season, in-conference meeting with the Thunderbirds.
Cal Poly at (14) UC Irvine, 10 (ESPN+ ($))
CSUN at Cal State Bakersfield, 9:30 (ESPN+ ($))
UC San Diego at Cal State Fullerton, 10 (ESPN+ ($))
UC Riverside at Hawai’i, 12 a.m. (Spectrum Sports Hawai’i/ESPN+ ($))
In the Big West, the Anteaters and Rainbow Warriors head into the final weekend sharing the conference lead at 13-5. With CSUN and UC San Diego both two games back at 11-7, UCI and UH will put themselves in great position to win at least a share of the league title on Saturday.
My next full update will come on Friday.
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