Miami vs. Texas A&M Prediction: College Football Playoff First-Round Game Preview

NCAAF College Football News, Photos, Stats, Scores, Schedule & Videos...

A trio of College Football Playoff first-round contests kick off on Saturday with a big-time showdown in College Station with Texas A&M hosting Miami. Both the Aggies and Hurricanes are making their first appearance in the playoff, with the winner slated to take on Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl on Dec 31.

Texas A&M appeared to be the SEC’s No. 1 team for a good chunk of the 2025 season but fell to the No. 7 seed after a loss to Texas on Black Friday. Despite the late setback, the Aggies are clearly trending up under second-year coach Mike Elko. The 11 victories in ‘25 are the highest single-season total for this program since reaching that mark in ‘12.

Miami’s inclusion into the playoff field wasn’t without controversy. After ranking behind Notre Dame for the first five top 25 releases, the Hurricanes jumped over the Fighting Irish thanks to their head-to-head victory in Week 1. Under the guidance of coach Mario Cristobal, Miami’s roster talent is on the rise, which culminated in a 10-2 record and trip to the playoffs after just missing the 12-team field in ‘24.

Miami holds a 3-2 all-time series lead over Texas A&M.

College Football Playoff First Round: Miami vs. Texas A&M Odds, Details

Location: Kyle Field at College Station, Texas
Kickoff: Saturday, Dec. 20 at Noon ET
TV: ESPN
Spread: Texas A&M -3.5
Over/Under: 48.5
Announcers: Sean McDonough, Greg McElroy, Molly McGrath, Taylor McGregor

Miami vs. Texas A&M: Keys to Victory

Miami quarterback Carson Beck (11)Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

Why Miami Will Win

Although Miami stumbled in losses to SMU and Louisville, this team has all of the ingredients to make a run in the playoff.

Cristobal’s defense showed massive improvement under new coordinator Corey Hetherman, holding opponents to just 13.8 points a contest and 4.5 yards a snap. Anchoring this standout group is an elite defensive front, with Akheem Mesidor and Rueben Bain leading the way. That duo was instrumental in helping the ‘Canes limit opposing ground games to 86.8 yards a game. Texas A&M’s offensive line is among the best in the nation, but Miami is equipped to give the Aggies trouble in the trenches and keep the ground game in check.

Senior quarterback Carson Beck directs a Miami offense that doesn’t hit big plays often (just 10 of 40-plus yards) but is among college football’s most efficient (No. 16 in success rate). If Beck can limit the mistakes (six of his 10 interceptions came in the team’s two losses) and effectively distribute the ball to dynamic freshman Malachi Toney and fellow receivers Keelan Marion and CJ Daniels, the ‘Canes can put together enough drives behind a standout offensive line to effectively move the ball on Texas A&M’s defense.

Why Texas A&M Will Win

Home teams went 4-0 in the first round of the playoff last season. Having 100,000-plus fans in a raucous environment in College Station certainly works in Texas A&M’s favor, especially in a game that’s expected to be tight on the scoreboard.

Balance is the name of the game for Texas A&M. Behind a much-improved passing game and quarterback Marcel Reed and receivers Mario Craver and Kevin Concepcion, the Aggies average 36.3 points a game. But the offense can also win with ground-and-pound, leaning on a standout offensive line and a deep stable of running backs. The backfield could get even deeper this Saturday if Le’Veon Moss is able to return. He’s listed as questionable after missing the last six games due to injury.

Texas A&M’s defense has had a few ups-and-downs this year but ranks No. 5 nationally in success rate. Although the Aggies surrendered a couple of big plays and had issues against the run at times, Saturday’s matchup against Miami is an opportunity for Elko’s group to shine. Defensive end Cashius Howell (11.5 sacks) will be a handful for Miami’s standout offensive front, and the secondary won’t give up much in the way of yardage (182.8 yards a game allowed).

With an ability to win games with the rushing attack, Reed’s dual-threat ability, or a defensive battle, Texas A&M is comfortable playing any style game Miami wants to bring to College Station.

Miami vs. Texas A&M Prediction:Texas A&M 27, Miami 24

Expect this game to go down to the wire on Saturday. With two teams that are strong in the trenches, this matchup could come down to whichever quarterback makes enough plays through the air or on the ground. Don’t be surprised if turnovers or the home crowd in College Station ultimately decides this one.

This story was originally published by Athlon Sports on Dec 19, 2025, where it first appeared in the College Football section. Add Athlon Sports as a Preferred Source by clicking here.

More at NCAAF College Football News, Photos, Stats, Scores, Schedule & Videos