Michigan football vs Purdue prediction, scouting report in Big Ten Week 10

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Free Press sports writer Tony Garcia looks ahead to the final game for Michigan football before its second bye week as the Wolverines welcome Purdue to Ann Arbor.

Fast facts

Matchup: Michigan (6-2, 4-1 Big Ten) vs. Purdue (2-6, 0-5).

Kickoff: 7 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 1; Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor.

TV/radio: Big Ten Network; WCSX-FM (94.7)

Line: Wolverines by 20½

Michigan football vs. Purdue availability report

Michigan Week 9 availability – OUT: WR I'Marion Stewart, QB Davis Warren, DB Rod Moore, RB Micah Ka'apana, RB Donovan Johnson, LB Jaydon Hood, OL Andrew Babalola, OL Evan Link, Edge Devon Baxter, WR C.J. Charleston; Questionable: TE Hogan Hansen, LB Cole Sullivan, LB Jimmy Rolder, RB Justice Haynes, OL Brady Norton

Purdue Week 8 availability −OUT: WR Chauncey Magwood, WR De'Nylon Morrissette, WR Jalil Hall, OL TJ Lindsey, OL Marques Easley, TE George Burhenn.

Scouting report

When Michigan has the ball: The Wolverines ran down the Spartans' throat last week, amassing 276 yards on the ground as Justice Haynes (26 carries for 152 yards and a touchdown) and Jordan Marshall (15 carries for 110 yards and a touchdown) topped the century mark together for the first time. The Wolverines have passed better at home, with Bryce Underwood averaging 246.5 yards per game at Michigan Stadium and 135 on the road. Purdue is No. 94 in the nation (394.6 yards) in total defense, the result of being No. 74 against the run (149 yards per game) and No. 104 against the pass (245.6). Ergo, the Wolverines should be able to pick how they move the ball, but look for them to re-establish go-to wide receivers Donaven McCulley and Andrew Marsh, who combined for four catches for 63 yards at MSU.

When Purdue has the ball: Purdue has passed well this season, with 246.1 yards per game (No. 54 in the nation) but much of that has come out of necessity while trailing in each of its past six contests. In contrast, Barry Odom's squad ranks No. 86 in rushing (141.6). The Boilers haven't been good in any area: They convert just 39.1% of third downs, have been unable to hold onto the ball (with just 27:47 of possession per game, No. 118 in the nation) and they've struggled with turnovers – 16, tied for the fourth in the nation, in eight games.

Know the foe

Quarterbackqualms: Purdue has gone with a two-QB system, with Ryan Browne getting the bulk of the work. The sophomore from Clarkston has completed 59.5% of his passes for 1,689 yards, eight touchdowns and seven interceptions. He's somewhat mobile, running 51 times for 175 yards and four touchdowns. Malachai Singleton, meanwhile, has completed 58.1% in limited action, for 266 yards with three touchdowns and two picks. He has also run 29 times for 153 yards (5.3 yards per rush) and one touchdown.

"I think both quarterbacks have their strengths," U-M coach Sherrone Moore said earlier in the week. "(Browne's) got a high ability. He made throws. He's absolutely more athletic than you think, you know, so he does a really good job of manipulating the pocket, making plays. … (Singleton is more of the) running guy, but can throw it, so we've got to have a plan for both of them."

Mockobee mania: Devin Mockobee is still the Boilermakers' main back. How long has it been? He was Purdue's starter in 2022, when the Wolverines met the Boilermakers in the Big Ten championship game. He's solid, but there hasn't been much progression since his freshman year. He's averaging 4.2 yards per carry with four scores but has just one carry of more than 20 yards. He has been a useful release valve in the passing game as well, with 18 grabs for 215 yards and a score.

Wideout watch: Like Michigan, Purdue has a clear duo at the top of the pecking order in Michael Jackson III (yes, really) and Nitro Tuggle (no, seriously). Jackson is the short-game threat, having hauled in 44 passes (more than twice as many as any other Boilermaker) for 398 yards and one score. Tuggle, a Georgia transfer, is the deep threat, having caught 19 passes for 310 yards (16.3 yards per reception) for a team-best four touchdowns. It's likely Jyaire Hill will see both at some point, as U-M's young secondary (which could be missing Rod Moore again) will be tested.

Tony Garcia's two cents

Be where your feet are: Michigan will be favored in its next three games (Purdue, Northwestern and Maryland) which should set up a matchup against Ohio State for a virtual play-game for the College Football Playoff. Still, the Wolverines can't take anybody lightly − not even a team they have overmatched at every position.

Pass game prowess: While the end goal is simply to win, it's also incumbent upon U-M to get its passing game going. After throwing for just 86 yards last week, this is a good time to open up Bryce Underwood's game. Michigan will eventually need a day when it wins with the passing game. This could be a good dress rehearsal for that.

Tony Garcia's prediction

Michigan is a perfect 4-0 at home and has scored 24 or more in every game. Purdue has been nicknamed the "Spoilermakers" in years past for its ability to upset teams in big spots, but that has largely happened at home and with rosters more capable than this one. Barry Odom seems to have his team playing better in his first year, but it's nowhere near enough to hang with the Wolverines. The pick: U-M 34, Purdue 10

Tony Garcia is the Wolverines beat writer for the Detroit Free Press. Email him at apgarcia@freepress.com and follow him on X at @RealTonyGarcia.

This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Michigan vs Purdue prediction, scouting report in Week 10

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