Michigan-Penn State scouting report and pick: Can Wolverines bounce back off a bye?

Michigan football continues its 2026 season on Saturday, Oct. 17, with a Week 7 matchup against Penn State. Here is everything you need to know as the Wolverines search for their first Big Ten win of the Kyle Whittingham era.

Fast facts

Matchup: Michigan (3-2, 0-2 Big Ten) vs. Penn State (3-3, 0-3).

Kickoff: 3:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 17; Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor.

TV/radio: CBS; WCSX-FM (94.7).

Line: Wolverines by 5½.

LACK OF DIRECTION: Michigan football's slow start to season leading to 'buy-in' questions

Scouting report

When Michigan has the ball: Kyle Whittingham said this week that job No. 1 is not turning the ball over. It could be argued job No. 1 is the offense not looking anything like it has the first five weeks. U-M’s attack has been dreadful, ranked No. 101 in scoring (23.0 points per game) and No. 121 in total offense (315.0 yards per game) as both its passing attack (No. 117, 180.8) and ground game (No. 98, 135.0) have struggled mightily. Michigan lacks explosive plays (No. 129 nationally, 25 total), is poor on third down (No. 75, 40.7%) has committed nine turnovers in five weeks (T-No. 102) and is still committing too many penalties (T-No. 81).

Quarterback Bryce Underwood (seven touchdowns, seven turnovers) remains the starter but is on thin ice. Offensive coordinator Jason Beck has to find a way to establish rhythm — Michigan has scored fewer than 20 points in four of five games. The hope is a bye week provided a reset, but there are a ton of problems that need to be solved.

When Penn State has the ball: So far, Michigan’s defense has been its only saving grace, ranked No. 3 in total defense (241.4 yards per game) and No. 20 in scoring (15.8 points per game). However, even that must be taken with a grain of salt as four of the five of the opponents U-M has faced rank in the bottom half of the country in offense (Iowa, No. 62, is only slightly above).

The good news is Penn State is bad too, ranked No. 72 (392.8 yards per game) in total offense and No. 65 in scoring (30.5). The Nittany Lions, however have been well below that pace in Big Ten play, averaging 18.7 points the past three games. PSU has been particularly bad on the ground, rushing for an average of 58 yards per game the past two weeks.

Know the foe

Iowa State East: Penn State coach Matt Campbell brought 24 players with him from Iowa State. While it’s led by quarterback Rocco Becht, it also includes a trio of wide receivers, multiple tight ends, a running back, offensive linemen and players on every level of the defense. So far, however, it hasn't translated to success.

"It's the same coordinator, to be honest with you, so it's similar,” U-M DB coach Jermain Gilford said of watching Iowa State film to prepare. “They have a lot of carryover from that team, so we have watched some Iowa State stuff, but at the same time, again, they're doing some new things. So hopefully we can make some adjustments and be all right.”

Rockin’ Rocco: Becht came to Happy Valley as one of the most experienced quarterbacks in the country. He leads all active FBS quarterbacks with 43 career starts and 29 victories and is No. 3 in passing yards for active signal callers. His numbers look good, having thrown for 1,397 yards, 11 touchdowns and three interceptions. But he's hit a wall in league play, with two touchdowns and all three picks the past three weeks.

"Quarterback is a veteran who's been starting since his freshman year," Gilford said. "We faced him his true freshman year. He came to our last place, played very, very well. This is his what, fourth year starting? So he's played a lot of football. He won't get rattled."

Spread the wealth: While Penn State has a clear top two in its passing game in ISU transfer Chase Sowell (23 catches, 359 yards and two touchdowns) and deep play threat Koby Howell (who has 12 catches for 344 yards and two scores but will miss Saturday's game), Becht is willing to spread the ball around. He has three other targets who all have 17 or more receptions and more than 500 receiving yards combined, which includes a pair of tight ends in Benjamin Brahmer and Andrew Rappleyea who have five of the team's 11 receiving touchdowns this season.

MAJOR PROBLEM: Would Michigan football be 'undefeated' without turnover woes?

Tony Garcia's two cents

Well, this is underwhelming: Both Michigan and Penn State entered the season ranked in the top 20 in the nation. This was circled as an expected test for each and some thought could help get the inside track to the postseason. Now, as they meet at the halfway point of the season, both are simply trying to stay on track for bowl eligibility. These have been the two most disappointing teams in the Big Ten and are among the biggest letdowns in the country.

Each has a new head coach who came from the Big 12 and led what was largely a middling program to its best run in the modern era. However, each is finding life difficult in the Big Ten. A win in this game doesn't solve either team's problem, but it would serve as a tourniquet to stop the bleeding with the teams having gone 0-5 (with one bye week) over their past three weeks combined.

Tommy time?: Underwood hasn't improved as a sophomore, at least not statistically. He's on pace for 12 passing touchdowns and nine interceptions, almost identical to his freshman year (11 and nine).

His completion rate has dropped one point, he has more turnover worthy plays than big-time throws per Pro Football Focus, and has only really looked impressive in one game: the first three quarters against Iowa.

There's an argument to be made Tommy Carr, the freshman from Saline, should see some time. While Underwood will start the game, Whittingham didn't entirely rule out the idea of Carr getting in for a package.

If it's another performance like the one in Minnesota, where Underwood was 10 of 21 for 101 yards and two interceptions, it could be his last game as the starter.

Tony Garcia's prediction

What's the opposite of an unstoppable force meeting an immovable object? Whatever it is, that's what Saturday is looking like. Michigan's offense has been anemic, but so has that of Penn State. U-M's defense has been quite good but hasn't been tested by an elite unit. Fortunately for the Wolverines, it won't be this week, either. PSU has proven to be one-dimensional and just lost at home, in a White Out, to a team that flew 2,000 miles across the country. Michigan's season is on life support. Penn State may have already pulled the plug. The pick: Michigan 20, Penn State 13

Tony Garcia is the Michigan beat writer for the Detroit Free Press. Email him at apgarcia@freepress.com and follow him on X at @RealTonyGarcia.

This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Michigan-Penn State scouting report and pick: Can Wolverines bounce back off a bye?