Michigan State at Wisconsin: Final Score Prediction

NCAAF College Football News, Photos, Stats, Scores, Schedule & Videos...

Previous Weeks

Week One: Toledo at Michigan State

  • My prediction: Michigan State 31, Toledo 17
  • Correct score: Michigan State 30, Toledo 20

Week Two: Eastern Michigan at Michigan State

  • My prediction: Michigan State 33, Eastern Michigan 13
  • Correct score: Michigan State 35, Eastern Michigan 7

Week Three: Michigan State at Notre Dame

  • My prediction: Michigan State 27, Notre Dame 26
  • Correct score: Notre Dame 27, Michigan State 10

Week Four: Nebraska at Michigan State

  • My prediction: Michigan State 23, Nebraska 21
  • Correct score: Nebraska 31, Michigan State 13

It seems like I’m getting farther away from perfect with each passing week.

I’ve been burned twice now by believing the Spartans could pull out a win. And in another universe, where Michigan State wasn’t hit by a tidal wave of injuries against Nebraska and didn’t have some ridiculous penalties erase game-changing plays, my prediction could have been much closer than the final score suggests.

But that universe doesn’t exist, and this is the one Michigan State has to deal with.

The Spartans were hit with a ton of injuries against Nebraska, including a season-ending injury to offensive star Cam Edwards and a knee injury to defensive star Jordan Hall that is expected to keep him out against Wisconsin. Michigan State is also dealing with a litany of injuries throughout its linebacker and cornerback rooms.

Now, it’s time to overcome that adversity and somehow land a perfect prediction.

To perfectly concoct the score of a football game determined by so many unpredictable variables, you really have to put yourself into the matchup.

Into the game script.

Into the minds of every player and coach on the field.

At first, I was just five points off. Then I was a total of eight points off in Week Two. That jumped to 17 total points off with the wrong winner in Week Three, followed by 16 total points off and another wrong winner in Week Four.

So, as you can tell, my read on the Spartans to start the season was pretty solid.

But as injuries continue to pile up and more depth players are forced into significant roles, things are getting a little harder to predict.

So I dug deep into Wisconsin trends, as well as Michigan State trends, before settling on this week's prediction.

Vegas has set Wisconsin as a 10-point favorite at home, with the over/under sitting at 43.5 points.

We already know I like Wisconsin in this matchup, and I also like the over.

The injuries are going to be too much for the Spartans to overcome, but the 16 points the betting line implies for Michigan State seems a little too low for me.

But so does the 24 points it implies for Wisconsin.

The 12:30 p.m. kickoff could lead to a slower start, but I expect the second half to open up and create more scoring opportunities.

Michigan State has a terrific defense when healthy, and the Spartans are hoping to get a few players back for this game. But the reality is that this team appears to be just below the middle tier of the Big Ten right now, placing the Spartans toward the lower tier of the conference.

Wisconsin, meanwhile, just rallied for a fourth-quarter comeback win despite throwing three interceptions.

Colton Joseph leads the Big Ten in turnover-worthy passes, while Michigan State has the conference's worst turnover differential.

That combination makes me think Joseph is going to take some chances.

I think a couple of those chances turn into big plays, including a few deep throws that connect.

Overall, I don't think this game is going to be a particularly enjoyable one for Spartan fans.

But here's my final prediction:

Michigan State 20, Wisconsin 31

More at NCAAF College Football News, Photos, Stats, Scores, Schedule & Videos