Michigan State Lands 10th in Nick Faber’s Final Big Ten Projections

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With the first Michigan State Spartans game just a week and a half away on September 4, it is finally time to release my official Big Ten projections.

This season will be full of surprises. There is no doubt about that. With the amount of turnover each team experienced, many of the answers people believe they know before a single snap is played will soon be disproven.

There will be upsets, epic games, sunshine, snowfall and everything in between. As the Big Ten is now, and seemingly forever will be, spread across the entire United States, college football will be played in nearly every climate the country has to offer.

With that, trying to predict all 18 teams, game by game, from Week 0 through Week 13 is about as difficult as predicting 68 teams — soon to be 72 — in the NCAA March Madness tournament. Still, as daunting as it is, there is always someone willing to put his heart on his sleeve and leave himself open to the utmost scrutiny by predicting the entire Big Ten season before it begins.

Everyone throws their hat into the ring, hoping to come back to their predictions when they are right or hoping the post gets lost in the sea of social media if they are dead wrong. No matter the outcome, for better or worse, here are my final Big Ten projections for the 2026 season.

Top Three

1. Ohio State — 10-2 (8-1)

2. Oregon — 11-1 (8-1)

3. USC — 10-2 (7-2)

For me, it comes down to Ohio State and Oregon. That is what everyone will tell you, and unfortunately, as much as I like to make crazy splashes with my predictions, I cannot disagree.

I have Ohio State defeating Oregon in their head-to-head matchup, giving the Buckeyes the edge for the regular-season title despite the two teams finishing with identical conference records.

USC comes in as a close No. 3 in my projections. The Trojans lose just two games this season, both in conference play, but ultimately fall just short of joining the Buckeyes and Ducks at the top.

The Three-Loss Teams

4. Washington — 9-3 (6-3)

5. Indiana — 9-3 (6-3)

6. Michigan — 8-4 (6-3)

7. Illinois — 9-3 (6-3)

There will be four three-loss teams in the Big Ten, including last year's national champions and the champions from 2023.

Washington and Illinois both make strong cases this season, while Indiana and Michigan remain right in the mix. All four teams, however, ultimately come up just short of reaching their biggest goals.

Michigan State and the Rest of the Four- and Five-Loss Teams

8. Minnesota — 7-5 (5-4)

9. Penn State — 8-4 (5-4)

10. Michigan State — 7-5 (5-4)

11. Iowa — 7-5 (4-5)

Here is where I have the Spartans coming in during what I believe will be their "shock the world" season under Pat Fitzgerald.

While many projections have Michigan State finishing among the bottom four or so teams in the conference, I believe the Spartans make a dominant push toward a bowl season and get there with an extra win to spare.

I have some big wins coming for Michigan State — enough to tie Penn State and Minnesota with a winning record in conference play. Iowa, meanwhile, has an off year and drops five Big Ten games.

A 7-5 record and 5-4 mark in conference play would represent a major step forward for the Spartans and place them squarely in the middle of a loaded 18-team Big Ten.

The Rest

12. Wisconsin — 5-7 (3-6)

13. Nebraska — 6-6 (3-6)

14. UCLA — 5-7 (2-7)

15. Purdue — 4-8 (2-7)

16. Maryland — 3-9 (2-7)

17. Northwestern — 4-8 (2-7)

18. Rutgers — 3-9 (1-8)

The final seven teams all enter the season hoping for better results, but in my projections, they ultimately fall short of putting together the seasons they want.

Predicting every team's record is never easy, especially in a conference with 18 teams and countless opportunities for unexpected upsets. But have no fear — I have done it for you.

For better or worse, these are my final projections. Here's to a tremendous and unpredictable 2026 Big Ten football season.

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