Michigan vs Texas Player Props & Best Bets for the Citrus Bowl

Player	Pick
Bryce Underwood	Over 160.5 passing yards	<<-114>>
Arch Manning	Over 23.5 rushing yards	<<-114>>
Arch Manning	Anytime touchdown	<<+145>>

Bryce Underwood Over 160.5 passing yards

-114 at FanDuel

Take one look at this Texas Longhorns defensive opt-out list, and I’m simply obligated to bet a number this low. There’s a lot of outside stuff at play, too.

Given how much equity this Michigan Wolverines program has in Bryce Underwood, his starting spot is clearly safe going into next season. However, he'll want to use this opportunity to showcase well with new head coach Kyle Whittingham taking the matchup in. 

There’s also everything else.

In a bowl setting with coaching turnover and a likely simplified approach on both sides, the easiest thing to lean on is structure: quick-game, RPOs, easy throws off run looks, and a handful of shot plays when the defense over-rotates. That profile fits Underwood’s resume; he’s been productive without needing a high-volume, high-variance dropback game.

Again, I also think there will be some real passing opportunities for Underwood with a Texas defense shuffling in so many different faces. I’d play this to around 170, a number he exceeded with ease in two of his last three games of the season.

Arch Manning Over 23.5 rushing yards

-114 at FanDuel

Obviously, the real angle isn’t “Arch can run.”… everyone knows that. It’s that his legs have been extremely useful in avoiding sacks, and sacks are the one thing that I could see really hurting this.

The Texas roster situation should increase his volume. There are hosts of very skilled offensive players out for Texas in this bowl game, most notable to this prop is DeAndre Moore.

With a big target gone, even with tons of talent behind him, I think there’s a good chance we see some scrambles that, by design or not, turn into quarterback runs more than usual. 

Even the “smart scramble” stuff counts the same as a designed keeper, and it’s often cleaner yardage because it happens when the defense has already turned its back and plastered in coverage.

The key is how he manages the negative plays. If he’s taking sacks, you’re basically asking him to overcome hidden yardage loss and then some. If he’s avoiding sacks by stepping up, escaping, and sliding for 6-10, the Over becomes a lot less fragile. That’s especially true at this number, where you don’t need a highlight run.

Everything considered, I like this spot for Arch to have a lot of volume. After all, this is a guy who finished the season running for 53 yards in a matchup that dictated similar “leave it out there” terms. 

Arch Manning anytime touchdown

+145 at FanDuel

Why not go all in on this narrative? 

A lot of the same logic to his rushing Over applies to this play. The offense will be overly simplified, and Arch Manning runs will come more often than usual. I think that holds particularly true closer to the red zone, which perhaps may give this even more value, which is why I saw a fair price on this closer to -150. 

Arch ripped off a 35-yard touchdown against Texas A&M to end the season, which should give some nice confidence heading into this game.

You just need Texas to get into scoring position a couple of times, and Arch’s legs are often what get them there in the first place, whether it’s escaping pressure to avoid a sack or keeping on a read when the defense crashes.

The story of this matchup is high-volume for the Texas signal-caller, and this is one of the best ways to capture that.

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