Michigan Wolverines vs. Texas Longhorns Expert Score Predictions: Arch Manning and Bryce Underwood both shine but only one can win

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The Texas Longhorns and Michigan Wolverines have had extremely different finishes to the 2025 college football season.

Steve Sarkisian and the Longhorns wrapped up their season by destroying rival Texas A&M, but still missed out on the College Football Playoff. The Michigan Wolverines lost in embarrassing fashion to rival Ohio State and saw their program implode around the Sherrone Moore scandal as they scrambled to replace him with Utah’s Kyle Whittingham at head coach.

This Citrus Bowl match up should offer the perfect “prove it” opportunity for both programs to show that they’re still in a great place, despite the disappointing finish to the year for both programs. Media members from A to Z Sports who cover both teams weighed in, predicting a winner. The picks are in. Enjoy!

Key Stats for the Texas vs. Michigan Citrus Bowl

  • Both Texas and Michigan rank inside the top 15 in yards per carry allowed on defense, but the Wolverines are the run-heavy offense who relies on success there
  • Michigan ranks top 20 in offensive success rate (keeping the offense on schedule), but rank 75th in plays of 10+ yards as they lack explosive plays
  • Texas ranks barely inside the top 100 in offensive success rate, but thanks to late season resurgence finished top 20 in explosive plays of 30+ yards
  • The Longhorns finished the regular season ranked third in defensive sacks per game, and Michigan QB Bryce Underwood took 10 sacks in his final four games of the regular season

Texas 30, Michigan 17

The Texas Longhorns’ season didn’t end where they wanted it to, but this is their chance to prove they were wronged by missing out on the College Football Playoff. Meanwhile, Michigan has just been trying to tread water and scramble to hire their new coach amidst an embarrassing mess of scandal. Michigan’s defense has been strong on paper all season long, but they have crumbled against a couple of the better offenses they faced (Ohio State and USC). Now they’re without star edge rusher Derrick Moore and do-it-all defender Jaishawn Barham too? Arch Manning and the Longhorns’ surging offense should be able to put up quite a few points against this Wolverines team. Freshman phenom quarterback Bryce Underwood should make a few fun plays with his legs and on passes to his fellow freshman, wide receiver Andrew Marsh, but ultimately Texas’ talent and experience edges at critical positions wins the day. – Travis May, A to Z Sports CFB & NFL Draft Managing Editor

Texas 27, Michigan 23

Texas enters Orlando stripped down by opt-outs and portal exits, but not stripped of momentum. Quintrevion Wisner and CJ Baxter are gone, forcing a young backfield into the spotlight. Anthony Hill Jr., Michael Taaffe, and multiple defensive backs are out, testing depth on every snap. Michigan isn’t whole either, with Derrick Moore and Jaishawn Barham removing bite from a once disruptive front. That reality pushes this game onto Arch Manning’s shoulders. Texas doesn’t need fireworks. It needs control. Staying ahead of the chains, leaning on short completions, and letting the offensive line dictate tempo keeps Michigan from turning third-and-long into a survival test. The run game won’t dominate, but four-yard gains matter. This game won’t be won by star power, but by attrition. This bowl game will reward preparation and discipline more than talent accumulation. Texas has both. – Nick Wright, A to Z Sports Texas

Texas 28, Michigan 14

With Michigan still coming out of turmoil, this feels like a distracted team who has the potential for an ugly bowl game performance. Texas will be breaking in some new skill position talent but quarterback Arch Manning is playing much better in the second half of the season. The Longhorn defense should also be mostly intact, which should be enough to keep the scoring down for the Wolverines. 2026 could be a huge season for head coach Steve Sarkisian and Texas. This bowl game could help to lay the groundwork for a huge offseason. – Ryan Roberts, A to Z Sports Notre Dame

Texas 38, Michigan 13

This matchup was probably a bit more intriguing a couple of weeks ago before the Sherrone Moore saga unfolded, but this has been a chaotic last month for the Wolverines program. Michigan goes into this one with nothing to lose, but nobody told interim head coach Biff Poggi, who made headlines last week for saying he doesn’t believe the Wolverines have a chance at winning this one. I’m in agreement with him. Michigan limped to the finish line to end the regular season, highlighted by a brutal dismantling at the hands of Ohio State. Arch Manning was playing excellent ball to end the season against much better teams than a disheveled Wolverines unit on both sides of the ball. I have a feeling Michigan will just want to get out of town and start the Kyle Whittingham era. Texas 38, Michigan 13. – AJ Schulte, A to Z Sports Oklahoma

Final Score Predictions for Texas vs. Michigan

The A to Z Sports staff is extremely bullish on this Texas Longhorns team against Michigan. On average, the A to Z Sports staff has Texas winning 31-17 over Michigan. The Wolverines team is too young and without some of their best players to ultimately pull this one off. However, there should be plenty of bright spots that shine throughout the game for both teams thanks to their developing young talents.

We’ll be back with more Texas Longhorns and Michigan Wolverines coverage here at A to Z Sports soon! Follow me (@FF_TravisM) and A to Z Sports (@AtoZSportsNFL) on X for all the latest football news!

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This story was originally published by A to Z Sports on Dec 29, 2025, where it first appeared in the College Football section. Add A to Z Sports as a Preferred Source by clicking here.

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