Might Fernando Mendoza become Indiana football's first Heisman Trophy winner? Odds, stats, contenders
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BLOOMINGTON — This year's Heisman Trophy race looks like the most wide-open in recent memory. And it might well end with Indiana's first winner.
Fernando Mendoza nosed in front of a crowded, fascinating field, IU's fourth-year QB emerging from the weekend a narrow but discernible favorite.
How does Mendoza stack up? Let's take a look at the top eight contenders, according to the latest odds.
All cited odds from BetMGM.
Fernando Mendoza Heisman odds, IU football stats
Stats: 73% completion rate, 2,641 yards, 35 total TDs, 5 INTs, 9.5 y/a, 184.83 QBR
Odds: -115
Mendoza's 299-yard, three-touchdown performance Saturday against Wisconsin edged Indiana closer to the Big Ten championship game, and it also pushed him into position as the odds on favorite for the first time this season.
In fact, Mendoza is the first contender with a minus next to his odds in several weeks, perhaps all season. That does not establish him as the prohibitive pick — that number needs to be lower for such a distinction — but it certainly positions him as the frontrunner.
A vote for Mendoza is a vote for both his numbers and his moments. He leads the Power Four in total touchdowns, with close to 3,000 total yards, and he captained game-winning drives at Iowa, Oregon and Penn State. NFL scouts consider him among the best quarterback prospects in the forthcoming draft, if not the best.
Julian Sayin Heisman odds, Ohio State football stats
Stats: 80.1% completion rate, 2,675 yards, 25 TDs, 4 INTs, 9.5 y/a, 186.23 QBR
Odds: +225
Sayin is the most efficient quarterback in America. He's actually on pace for perhaps the college football's most efficient season ever.
That completion rate would comfortably set a FBS record, were it to stand. He's also bettering Mendoza in yards per game, and keeping pace in other areas given Ohio State has played one game less than Indiana thus far.
Sayin in many ways represents what his team has this season: ruthless, dominant efficiency. Ohio State is 10-0, having won by fewer than 16 points just once (Texas, Week 1). The weakness in Sayin's resume is manifested in the Buckeyes' schedule — the Longhorns are their only ranked win, and Texas is slumping away from the College Football Playoff now after an ugly loss at Georgia.
If Sayin is going to win this award, it feels like he's going to have to do it at Michigan and then in Indianapolis, where he might be dueling Mendoza for more than just a Big Ten title.
Marcel Reed Heisman odds, Texas A&M football stats
Stats: 61.5% completion rate, 2,632 yards, 28 total TDs, 8 INTs, 9 y/a, 156.94 QBR
Odds: +500
Reed surged into third in the betting odds this week after a goat-turned-hero performance in A&M's storm-from-behind win against South Carolina. The Aggies were down 30-3 at halftime, at home, against a three-win team, before Reed delivered a lights-out second half to finish with 439 yards passing and three touchdowns in a 31-30 win.
Of course, Reed threw two picks against the Gamecocks and was as culpable as a lot of his teammates for trailing so badly in the first place. More generally, while Reed has at times been more explosive than some others on this list, he's also been nowhere near as efficient. And interceptions have been an issue — he's thrown at least one in six of his last eight games, with two each against LSU and South Carolina.
Still, he's as exciting as any player on this list when he's on. If A&M wins the SEC championship next month, Reed will likely be delivering his own argument for the Heisman in Atlanta on the same day Mendoza and Sayin are dueling in Indianapolis.
Diego Pavia Heisman odds, Vanderbilt football stats
Stats: 70% completion rate, 2,440 yards, 28 total TDs, 5 INTs, 8.9 y/a, 166.76 QBR
Odds: +2200
Vanderbilt already launched a Heisman campaign for Pavia, who has more than 3,000 total yards already this season when you factor in his rushing stats. He's probably the best dual-threat quarterback on this list, all things equal.
If Vandy can win out (Kentucky, at Tennessee), there's a good chance the Commodores will make the CFP, which would be a significant feather in Pavia's cap. And he's really turned it on lately — he has 897 yards and eight touchdowns in his last two games.
Those numbers make up for some quieter afternoons earlier in the conference schedule, though. And the counterpoint on the schedule is that with a lack of signature wins, if Vanderbilt doesn't win out, the 'Dores won't be in the 12-team field. Pavia perhaps deserves more attention than he's getting here, but there are holes in his resume.
Gunner Stockton Heisman odds, Georgia football stats
Stats: 70.7% completion rate, 2,269 yards, 27 total TDs, 3 INTs, 7.9 y/a, 156.9 QBR
Odds: +2500
Stockton is surging in this conversation because Georgia is more broadly. In his last five games (all wins), he's thrown for 1,222 yards and 13 touchdowns, against just two interceptions. He's also added 156 yards rushing and three scores on the ground in that time.
He was particularly outstanding in the win over Texas on Saturday, throwing for four touchdowns, and in a wide-open Heisman race, recency bias never hurts.
If Georgia can sneak into the SEC title game, Stockton gets a big stage upon which to present his case. But Alabama still controls it own destiny there and, as good as Stockton has been lately, his numbers aren't likely to catch up to the best of his peers between now and Dec. 8, when Heisman votes are due.
Haynes King Heisman odds, Georgia Tech football stats
Stats: 72.7% completion rate, 3,066 total yards, 24 total TDs, 2 INTs, 8.9 y/a, 159.19 QBR
Odds: +3500
It's also worth mentioning King averages more than 5.4 yards per rush, because he's probably the best rushing quarterback in America. Georgia Tech builds its offense around his savvy and explosiveness rushing the ball, and he's the main reason the Yellow Jackets are in pole position in the ACC right now.
King has had to carry a heavy load as the season's worn on. He has 148 attempts rushing in 2025, a running back's workload on a quarterback's body.
And his best has been required — King has 935 total yards and five touchdowns in his last two games, which have seen Georgia Tech's defense allow a whopping 70 points. If the Jackets reach the Playoff, they will do so on King's back.
Like Pavia and Stockton, he probably has too much work to do for a genuine shot at this award, but like those two he probably deserves more respect than he's getting.
Jeremiyah Love Heisman odds, Notre Dame football stats
Stats: 177 attempts, 1,135 yards, 17 total TDs, 6.4 y/c, 274 yards receiving
Odds: +4000
Love sits fourth nationally in yards and tied for fourth in touchdowns. He's the foundation around which Notre Dame has built the eight-game winning streak that's pushed the Fighting Irish back into playoff contention for a second straight season.
And he very much looks the part. Love might be the most dangerous back, all in, in college football. His combination of size, speed and agility make him one of the most dangerous offensive players in America, week after week. If Notre Dame has another December run in the chamber, Love will play a leading role.
He will also find it hard to crack this conversation, given where he is at this late hour. He's not alone in deserving more respect. Fellow backs Ahmad Hardy (Missouri) and Kewan Lacy (Ole Miss) should probably be getting more Heisman attention too.
Jeremiah Smith Heisman odds, Ohio State football stats
Stats: 69 catches, 902 yards, 10 TDs, 13.1 y/c
Odds: +6600
Smith might be the best pure football player in America. If his quarterback belongs at or near the top of this list, so does he, but it doesn't always work that way.
He might already be the best NFL prospect at his position in college football, and he's still a year away from being eligibile to declare for the draft. When he does, Smith is almost assured to be a top-10 pick.
And in an ideal world, were the Heisman not such a quarterback-driven award, he would feature more prominently in this discussion. As things stand, he might find it hard to grab a spot in New York, even if he deserves one.
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This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: Fernando Mendoza Heisman odds, Indiana football stats, Julian Sayin
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