Mississippi State football can make bowl with five wins if these 13 teams lose
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STARKVILLE — The obvious goal for Mississippi State football is to beat No. 6 Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl on Nov. 28 (11 a.m., ABC). It would be a win against the in-state rival and clinch bowl eligibility for the first time since 2022.
But what if Mississippi State loses to Ole Miss and finishes with a 5-7 record? Could it still make a bowl game?
The short answer is yes, but it's unlikely. It's a complex scenario that involves MSU's Academic Progress Rate (APR) and other teams losing in Week 14. MSU's APR is 979, which is tied for 45th among FBS teams and not a favorable position.
Here's how the Bulldogs could still get to a bowl game, even with a loss to the Rebels (10-1, 6-1 SEC) at Davis Wade Stadium.
Mississippi State's path to a bowl at 5-7
There are 82 spots for bowl teams and 72 are already filled of teams with at least six wins.
Mississippi State is one of 21 FBS teams at five wins. It would need most of those teams to lose to open the door for the APR tiebreaker. There are three games in Week 14 where both teams have 5-6 records: Penn State at Rutgers, Georgia Southern at Marshall and Arkansas State at Appalachian State. None of those six teams have better APRs than the Bulldogs.
That leaves only seven spots up for grabs, assuming the uncommon scenario of teams opting out of bowls.
Mississippi State is tied with Kentucky at No. 7 in APR among teams currently with five wins. It does not win the APR tiebreakers against Kansas State, Auburn, Florida State, Rice, UCF and Army.
Mississippi State would root against these 5-win teams
Mississippi State would have to root against these teams if it loses the Egg Bowl. They are all at five wins and would lose the APR tiebreaker to Mississippi State if they don't win in Week 14:
- Baylor
- Kansas
- Washington State
- Temple
- Louisiana
- Texas State
- Buffalo
Mississippi State would root against these 4-win teams
These teams have higher APRs than Mississippi State but require a win in Week 14.
- North Carolina
- Wisconsin
- Stanford
- Ball State
- Liberty
- West Virginia
Sam Sklar is the Mississippi State beat reporter for The Clarion Ledger. Email him at ssklar@usatodayco.com and follow him on X @sklarsam_.
This article originally appeared on Mississippi Clarion Ledger: Mississippi State football bowl path if it loses Egg Bowl to Ole Miss
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