Mississippi vs Georgia Best Bets, Predictions & Picks for Today, January 1

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The final game of the New Year’s Day College Football Playoff slate features Mississippi against Georgia in the Sugar Bowl, revisiting a regular-season instant classic won by the Bulldogs via a fourth-quarter surge.

The Rebels have responded by not losing since, including a convincing opening-round win over Tulane despite the absence of Lane Kiffin.

Before these two powerhouses face off again, let's get into our Mississippi vs. Georgia predictions for Thursday, January 1.

Mississippi vs Georgia Sugar Bowl predictions

• Mississippi +6.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
• Under 55.5 (-105 at FanDuel)
• Frazier u60.5 rushing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
• Chambliss anytime TD (+170 at FanDuel)

Mississippi vs Georgia best bets

-110 at FanDuel)

The Mississippi Rebels passed their first test without Lane Kiffin with flying colors, absolutely crushing the Tulane Green Wave 41-10 in the first round of the College Football Playoff. But their first real challenge comes in the Sugar Bowl on New Year’s Day against their SEC rivals, the Georgia Bulldogs.

The Bulldogs were the last team to defeat the Rebels, winning an epic comeback 43-35 on October 18, in a game that saw Georgia outscore Mississippi 17-0 in the fourth quarter. 

Now, Georgia has won nine in a row, which includes avenging its lone loss of the season by defeating rival Alabama in the SEC Championship Game in dominant fashion.

But while the Bulldogs are rolling, it doesn’t mean they aren’t vulnerable. This isn’t the Georgia team of years past, which had historically good defenses. The Dawgs are good, just not great. And good passing teams have been a problem.

Georgia ranks 55th in defensive success rate on dropbacks and 63rd in opponent points per quality drive. And led by QB Trinidad Chambliss, the Rebels are a quality offense.

Chambliss didn’t begin the season as Mississippi’s starter, but he’s left no doubt about who’s the man since taking over. The Rebels rank ninth in EPA per play and 15th in offensive success rate and are seventh in both EPA and success rate on dropbacks.

But what makes this Mississippi offense more of a problem for Georgia than, say, Alabama, is its balance.

With star running back Kewan Lacy complementing Chambliss, the Rebels can be hard for anyone to slow down, especially with offensive coordinator Charlie Weis Jr. staying with the team.

Georgia's still a very good team and has the edge in big-game coaching and experience. And while that could be the difference in who wins the Sugar Bowl,  Mississippi will make the Bulldogs work for it and keep this game close.

-105 at FanDuel)

There are some very talented offensive players in this game, but this total is a touch too high. 

These are two strong defensive teams that are both in the Top 30 when it comes to opponent EPA per play.

Mississippi vs Georgia TD pick

+170 at FanDuel)

Leaning on a quarterback in the run game in key moments is more common in elimination games. For the Mississippi Rebels and quarterback Trinidad Chambliss, that has already been a common tactic, with the Ferris State transfer scoring eight times this season, including twice in the first round against Tulane.

In the Rebels’ six one-score games, Chambliss found the end zone in three of them, including twice at these Georgia Bulldogs.

He will have several opportunities in the Sugar Bowl, since Mississippi ranks No. 1 in the country in quality drive rate, turning nearly 60% of possessions into scoring opportunities.

And Georgia ranks No. 63 in limiting points on quality drives. Chambliss should have his scoring chances, and against this particular defense, those chances often yield touchdowns.

Mississippi vs Georgia prop pick

-114 at FanDuel)

Georgia’s rushing offense suffered greatly in the SEC title game without starting center Drew Bobo. The Bulldogs lost 0.07 expected points per rush attempt and stayed ahead of the chains on only 35% of their rush attempts.

On the season, that was Georgia’s fourth-worst rushing performance, and one that stood out given both the stakes and the wanted rushing emphasis seen in 40 attempts.

Frazier struggled to only 52 yards on 13 carries, his lowest yards per rush since November 1, and one of only three games this season in which he did not average at least 4.2 per attempt.

Expect the Bulldogs to lean on Gunner Stockton’s arm rather than the run game, largely out of worries about their offensive line in run blocking.

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This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here

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