Mountain West & Pac-12 Bowl Projections Week 1: San Jose State enters the picture.
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The time has come. The 2026 season is upon us. We are past the time of watch lists and preseason awards and have entered the time of bowl projections. Our team at Mountain West Connection will be releasing our bowl projections each week. This season, both Mountain West and Pac-12 projections will be included in the same post. Our first round of projections are below and will likely change as the season progresses. Leave your own thoughts in the comments.
Note that bowl tie-ins are extremely messy this year, more than usual. Due to that, it’s difficult to even have consistency with the ranking order of bowl games.
For Mountain West Bowls, we will designate the Potato Bowl as the MW Champion, although the champ could go to one of six different bowl games. But for simplicity’s sake, whoever you see in the Potato Bowl is who a writer thinks will be the Mountain West Champ, although we recognize that may not necessarily be the case when the time comes.
For Pac-12 teams, the legacy teams are still locked into the Pac-12 bowl tie-ins. The current champion will be in the Poinsettia Bowl, but after that, it’s a lot of unknown. We will also list the Sun Bowl, as that has traditionally be the last Pac-12 bowl to select and therefore most likely to have a new Pac team. Otherwise, back-up bowls will likely host many of the current Pac-12 teams. And if that wasn’t confusing enough, it’s possible that ESPN could put current Pac-12/old Mountain West teams in MW-affiliated bowls that ESPN owns. However, we won’t entertain that possibility, at least not to start.
Clear as mud? Good. For what it’s worth, we are providing a bowl tie-in key in this post. While it may not be completely accurate, it at least provides a picture of how we are arriving at some of our bowl projections. And as the picture becomes clearer, we will update our explanation key. If you find any info, feel free to let us know in the comments.
Bowl Affiliation Key
Potato Bowl: (Potential) Designated MW Champ
Hawaii Bowl: MW #2
Arizona Bowl: MW #3
New Mexico Bowl: MW #4
Guaranteed Rate Bowl: #1 MW backup
Cactus Bowl: Backup bowl
Poinsettia Bowl: Pac-12 champ
Hawaii Bowl: Pac-12 #2
ESPN Bowl: Pac-12 #3
ESPN Bowl: Pac-12 #4
Sun Bowl: Last option for legacy Pac-12 teams
ESPN Bowl: Backup bowl
College Football Playoff: Highest-ranked G6 team
Mike
Potato Bowl: New Mexico
Hawaii Bowl: North Dakota State
Arizona Bowl: Air Force
New Mexico Bowl: UNLV
Guaranteed Rate Bowl: San Jose State
Cactus Bowl: N/A
Poinsettia Bowl: Boise State
Hawaii Bowl: Washington State
ESPN Bowl: San Diego State
ESPN Bowl: Texas State
Sun Bowl: Fresno State
ESPN Bowl: N/A
College Football Playoff: N/A
Some minor changes for this week. I tried to factor in actual game results, while also attempting to not overreact to early games with uneven levels of competition. But Hawaii drops out this week, replaced by the Spartans, who look to be building a pretty good offense. The Pac-12 did not have a good opening week at all, but the Broncos firmly established themselves as a top Group of 6 team, while the Bobcats and Bulldogs need to bounce back in order to stay in the bowl projections.
Zach
Potato Bowl: North Dakota State
Hawaii Bowl: New Mexico
Arizona Bowl: San Jose State
New Mexico Bowl: UNLV
Guaranteed Rate Bowl: Air Force
Cactus Bowl: N/A
Poinsettia Bowl: San Diego State
Hawaii Bowl: Washington State
ESPN Bowl: Fresno State
ESPN Bowl: Colorado State
Sun Bowl: Texas State
ESPN Bowl: Oregon State
College Football Playoff: Boise State
I made a few changes this week. There are still so many unknowns. We will learn a lot about the Mountain West this coming week when North Dakota State travels to Air Force. Boise State can solidify themselves as the Group of Six favorites with a win over Memphis. I think both conferences will have a lot of six- or seven-win teams, but not many nine- or ten-win teams.
Jeff
Potato Bowl: New Mexico
Hawaii Bowl: UNLV
Arizona Bowl: North Dakota State
New Mexico Bowl: San Jose State
Guaranteed Rate Bowl: Air Force
Cactus Bowl: N/A
Poinsettia Bowl: Washington State
Hawaii Bowl: San Diego State
ESPN Bowl: Fresno State
ESPN Bowl: Colorado State
Sun Bowl: Texas State
ESPN Bowl: N/A
College Football Playoff: Boise State
I listed Washington State as the legacy team from the Pac-12. The Pac had a poor showing in the Pac, and the MWC was only slightly better. It’s fair to wonder if an elusive Power 4 win is in the cards for any team. Some teams lack offense, but others had a good showing. The teams above will need to avoid the out-of-conference upsets, à la Utah State.
Chase
Potato Bowl: New Mexico
Hawaii Bowl: North Dakota State
Arizona Bowl: UNLV
New Mexico Bowl: Nevada
Guaranteed Rate Bowl: Air Force
Cactus Bowl: San Jose State
Poinsettia Bowl: San Diego State
Hawaii Bowl: Colorado State
ESPN Bowl: Texas State
ESPN Bowl: Oregon State
Sun Bowl: N/A
ESPN Bowl: N/A
College Football Playoff: Boise State
The Pac-12 did not impress me whatsoever this week, and it will be very tough for more than five of these teams to make a bowl game. My playoff spot now goes to Boise State, the Broncos’ performance against Oregon will carry them a long way in the end. As for the Mountain West, I think six teams have a good chance of reaching the six-win barrier, but I dropped Hawaii due to how bad they have looked during their 0-2 start. I think Air Force, Nevada and San Jose State will make bowls this season after missing them last year, all three have impressed me thus far.
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