Mountain West & Pac-12 Bowl Projections Week 5:
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The time has come. The 2026 season is upon us. We are past the time of watch lists and preseason awards and have entered the time of bowl projections. Our team at Mountain West Connection will be releasing our bowl projections each week. This season, both Mountain West and Pac-12 projections will be included in the same post. Our first round of projections are below and will likely change as the season progresses. Leave your own thoughts in the comments.
Note that bowl tie-ins are extremely messy this year, more than usual. Due to that, it’s difficult to even have consistency with the ranking order of bowl games.
For Mountain West Bowls, we will designate the Potato Bowl as the MW Champion, although the champ could go to one of six different bowl games. But for simplicity’s sake, whoever you see in the Potato Bowl is who a writer thinks will be the Mountain West Champ, although we recognize that may not necessarily be the case when the time comes.
For Pac-12 teams, the legacy teams are still locked into the Pac-12 bowl tie-ins. The current champion will be in the Poinsettia Bowl, but after that, it’s a lot of unknown. We will also list the Sun Bowl, as that has traditionally be the last Pac-12 bowl to select and therefore most likely to have a new Pac team. Otherwise, back-up bowls will likely host many of the current Pac-12 teams. And if that wasn’t confusing enough, it’s possible that ESPN could put current Pac-12/old Mountain West teams in MW-affiliated bowls that ESPN owns. However, we won’t entertain that possibility, at least not to start.
Clear as mud? Good. For what it’s worth, we are providing a bowl tie-in key in this post. While it may not be completely accurate, it at least provides a picture of how we are arriving at some of our bowl projections. And as the picture becomes clearer, we will update our explanation key. If you find any info, feel free to let us know in the comments.
Bowl Affiliation Key
Potato Bowl: (Potential) Designated MW Champ
Hawaii Bowl: MW #2
Arizona Bowl: MW #3
New Mexico Bowl: MW #4
Guaranteed Rate Bowl: #1 MW backup
Cactus Bowl: Backup bowl
Poinsettia Bowl: Pac-12 champ
Hawaii Bowl: Pac-12 #2
ESPN Bowl: Pac-12 #3
ESPN Bowl: Pac-12 #4
Sun Bowl: Last option for legacy Pac-12 teams
ESPN Bowl: Backup bowl
College Football Playoff: Highest-ranked G6 team
Mike
Potato Bowl: North Dakota State
Hawaii Bowl: New Mexico
Arizona Bowl: UNLV
New Mexico Bowl: San Jose State
Guaranteed Rate Bowl: Air Force
Cactus Bowl: N/A
Poinsettia Bowl: Oregon State
Hawaii Bowl: Fresno State
ESPN Bowl: Texas State
ESPN Bowl:
Sun Bowl: N/A
ESPN Bowl: N/A
College Football Playoff: Boise State
No big changes for the Mountain West. I flipped UNLV, Air Force, and San Jose State. All five of these teams won, continuing to distance themselves from the rest, but UNLV’s best looks better than San Jose State’s best at the moment. Over on the Pac-12 side of things, it will be interesting now that these teams will start to beat one another. Dropping Colorado State this week, as four bowl teams looks certain at this point. Fresno State and Texas State flip-flop following the Bobcats loss.
Zach
Potato Bowl: New Mexico
Hawaii Bowl: North Dakota State
Arizona Bowl: UNLV
New Mexico Bowl: Air Force
Guaranteed Rate Bowl: N/A
Cactus Bowl: N/A
Poinsettia Bowl: Oregon State
Hawaii Bowl: N/A
ESPN Bowl: Fresno State
ESPN Bowl: San Diego State
Sun Bowl: N/A
ESPN Bowl: N/A
College Football Playoff: Boise State
Outside of the top three teams in each conference, I don’t feel confident with my picks. I can see a scenario where only four teams get into a bowl in each conference. A lot of these teams are going to be in the 5-6 win range. I still have Boise State in the playoff, but that could change this weekend.
Chase
Potato Bowl: New Mexico
Hawaii Bowl: North Dakota State
Arizona Bowl: UNLV
New Mexico Bowl: San Jose State
Guaranteed Rate Bowl: Air Force
Cactus Bowl: N/A
Poinsettia Bowl: Oregon State
Hawaii Bowl: Fresno State
ESPN Bowl: Texas State
ESPN Bowl: N/A
Sun Bowl: N/A
ESPN Bowl: N/A
College Football Playoff: Boise State
The only major change here is dropping down Air Force due to Liam Szarka being out for the season. I think they will still make a bowl game, but they’re well beyond MW title contention now.
Jeff
Potato Bowl: New Mexico
Hawaii Bowl: North Dakota State
Arizona Bowl: UNLV
New Mexico Bowl: San Jose State
Guaranteed Rate Bowl: Air Force
Cactus Bowl: N/A
Poinsettia Bowl: Fresno State
Hawaii Bowl: N/A
ESPN Bowl: Oregon State
ESPN Bowl: Texas State
Sun Bowl: N/A
ESPN Bowl: N/A
College Football Playoff: Boise State
The top four teams in both conferences should clinch spots. Expect some upsets to happen in the weeks to come. The only dominant teams are Boise State, New Mexico and NDSU.
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