NCAA Tournament Bracket Predictions After Big UConn, Florida, SDSU Wins

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Still a few weeks out from the NCAA Tournament bracket reveal, Wednesday night might have been the biggest midweek moment of the season so far.

No, the biggest teams didn't play – that's coming Friday night and Saturday – but a few massive things happened that should set the tone for the rest of the regular season.

What happened?

Projecting the 68 Team Field After Key Results Shake Up the Bracket

– UConn annihilated St. John's. The Huskies held the red-hot Red Storm to just 14 points in the second half. This was when UConn made a statement that it's ready to be a 1 seed.

– Florida was down to Texas early in the second half, and then … BOOM. 84-71, the Gator offense was frighteningly good on the road. It's making a hard push to lock in a 2 seed.

Meanwhile, the Longhorns aren't on NCAA Tournament, but they could use some wins to get better. That's a problem with a brutal finishing kick.

– San Diego State still has work to do, but it made a big move to potentially get off the bubble with an 89-72 thrashing of Mountain West leader Utah State.

Also of huge importance … 

Arkansas got the O going in a 99-84 win over Texas A&M … Georgia is in big trouble after an 88-80 loss at Vanderbilt … Gonzaga avenged a stunning loss to Portland with a 89-48 win … Santa Clara flexed a 86-67 win over a Santa Clara team that needs to get going late to bid-steal. 

Most Important Games This Week

These might not be the biggest games, but they're the ones with the biggest overall impact on the NCAA Tournament seeding.

• Thursday: Michigan State at Purdue
• Friday: Michigan at Illinois
• Saturday: Kansas at Arizona
• Sunday: Purdue at Ohio State and Michigan State at Indiana

Projected First Four Out

• Texas (SEC)
• Ohio State (Big Ten)
• New Mexico (Mountain West)
• TCU (Big 12)

Projected Last Four Bubble Teams In

These four will probably be knocked out once the conference tournament weirdness kicks in.

• Santa Clara (WCC)
• Indiana (Big Ten)
• San Diego State (Mountain West)
• Missouri (SEC)

Four Teams That Might Screw Everyone Up

Projected-out teams that could steal bids with a splashy conference tournament run.

• Colorado State (Mountain West)
• Akron (MAC)
• Virginia Tech (ACC)
• Stephen F. Austin (WAC)

True Bubble Teams

These four are probably closer to being in than we're predicting.

• VCU (Atlantic 10)
• Georgia (SEC)
• USF (American)
• Cal (ACC)

All Seeds in Alphabetical Order

We do this based on what we predict each team will do over the rest of the regular season. Also, the (rank in the parentheses) after each team is where each was projected on Sunday.

Projected 16 Seeds

UT Martin (16) (Ohio Valley)
Vermont (16) (America East)

Teams in Play-In Games
Bethune-Cookman (16) (SWAC)
Howard (16) (MEAC)
LIU (16) (NEC)
Marist (16) (MAAC) 

15 Seeds

Austin Peay (15) (ASUN)
Navy (15) (Patriot)
Oakland (15) (Horizon)
Troy (15) (Sun Belt)

14 Seeds

ETSU (14) (SoCon)
North Dakota State (14) (Summit)
Portland State (14) (Big Sky)
UC Irvine (14) (Big West)

13 Seeds

Cal Baptist (13) (WAC)
Liberty (13) (CUSA)
UNC Wilmington (13) (Coastal)
VCU (13) (Atlantic 10)

12 Seeds

High Point (12) (Big South)
McNeese (12) (Southland)
USF (12) (American)
Yale (12) (Ivy)

11 Seeds

Auburn (8) (SEC)
Belmont (11) (Missouri Valley)

Teams in Play-In Games
Indiana (9) (Big Ten)
Missouri (Bubble/Out) (SEC)
San Diego State (Bubble/Out) (MWest)
Tulsa (10) (American)

10 Seeds

Georgia (11) (SEC)
Miami University (9) (MAC)
Texas A&M (10) (SEC)
UCLA (11) (Big Ten)

9 Seeds

Clemson (9) (ACC)
Saint Louis (7) (Atlantic 10)
Santa Clara (11) (West Coast)
SMU (11) (ACC)

8 Seeds

Iowa (8) (Big Ten)
Miami (9) (ACC)
UCF (10) (Big 12)
Wisconsin (7) (Big Ten)

7 Seeds

Kentucky (8) (SEC)
NC State (6) (ACC)
Saint Mary’s (7) (West Coast)
Utah State (8) (Mountain West)

6 Seeds

North Carolina (6) (ACC)
St. John’s (6) (Big East)
Vanderbilt (5) (SEC)
Villanova (7) (Big East)

5 Seeds

Alabama (6) (SEC)
Arkansas (5) (SEC)
Kansas (5) (Big 12)
Texas Tech (5) (Big 12)

4 Seeds

BYU (4) (Big 12)
Louisville (4) (ACC)
Nebraska (2) (Big Ten)
Tennessee (4) (SEC)

3 Seeds

Illinois (3) (Big Ten)
Michigan State (3) (Big Ten)
Purdue (3) (Big Ten)
Virginia (3) (ACC

2 Seeds

Florida (2) (SEC)
Gonzaga (4) (West Coast)
Houston (1) (Big 12)
Iowa State (2) (Big 12)

1 Seeds

Arizona (1) (Big 12)
Duke (1) (ACC)
Michigan (1) (Big Ten)
UConn (2) (Big East

This story was originally published by College Football News on Feb 26, 2026, where it first appeared in the College Basketball section. Add College Football News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.

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