NCAA Tournament Bracket Projection: Final Picks Before Selection Sunday

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NCAA Tournament Bracket Projection: Final Picks Before Selection Sunday

There’s not nearly the drama everyone thinks there is around the 2026 NCAA Tournament and Selection Sunday.

The top seeds are set, the bottom seeds aren’t packing to stay the whole weekend, and the world is so bored that it can’t stop talking about Miami University and Auburn.

And, of course, that dopey Big 12 basketball floor that went from being a combination iPad/skating rink to a headache-inducing nightmare.

We’re really only paying attention to a few teams here, and out of those, we’re really only talking about one. 

San Diego State.

That’s the most important team left, because if it beats Utah State for the Mountain West title, some team – likely from the SEC – is out.

That, and whether or not Miami University is in. If you care about the low-rent district SEC teams, or a Santa Clara, or an SMU, your respective cakes are baked. Now you need some help.

This will be updates if needed on late Saturday night, but for the most part, we should have the bracket seeds down.

Mar 13, 2026; Nashville, TN, USA; Arkansas Razorbacks head coach John Calipari talks with guard Darius Acuff Jr. (5) during a time out against the Oklahoma Sooners during the first half at Bridgestone Arena. M© Steve Roberts-Imagn Images

Last Bracket Projections Before Selection Sunday: CFN’s Final Seeds and Bubble Watch

Teams with a * won their conference tournaments and will get the automatic bid

– 5 teams that don’t need to be in the NCAA Tournament

Projected First Four Out

  • Auburn (SEC)
  • Missouri (SEC)
  • Oklahoma (SEC)
  • Cal (ACC)

Teams That Shouldn’t Be In, But Will Be

These four will be among the last four in, but they should be fine – even though the tournament would be fine without them.

  • NC State (ACC)
  • Texas (SEC)
  • Texas A&M (SEC)
  • St. Louis or VCU (Missouri Valley loser)

Projected Last Four In

  • Miami University (MAC)
  • Santa Clara (West Coast)
  • SMU (ACC)
  • UCF (Big 12)

Teams Could Burst the NCAA Tournament Bubble

All the other worrying bubble teams need these teams to lose fast, and not win their respective conference championships.

  • San Diego State (Mountain West)
  • Ole Miss (SEC)
  • Dayton, Saint Joseph’s, VCU (A-10)

    True Bubble Teams

    These four are probably closer to being in than we have them.

    • Indiana (Big Ten)
    • New Mexico (Mountain West
    • Seton Hall (Big East)
    • Stanford (ACC)

    All teams projected from 12 to 16 should be automatic qualifiers after winning their respective conference tournaments. Teams currently in have an *.

    The numbers in parentheses are what last week’s seed projections were.

    Projected No. 16 Seeds

    • Furman* (SoCon) (14)
    • Lehigh* (Patriot) (15)

    Play-In Game

    • Howard (MEAC) (16)
    • LIU* (NEC) (16)
    • Southern (SWAC) (15)
    • UMBC (America East) (16)

    Projected No. 15 Seeds

    • Idaho* (Big Sky) (16)
    • Queens University* (ASUN) (15)
    • Siena* (MAAC) (16)
    • Tennessee State* (Ohio Valley) (16) 

    Projected No. 14 Seeds

    • Kennesaw State (CUSA) (Out)
    • Hofstra* (Coastal) (14)
    • Troy* (Sun Belt) (15)
    • Wright State* (Horizon) (14)

    Projected No. 13 Seeds

    • North Dakota State* (Summit) (13)
    • Northern Iowa* (Missouri Valley) (13)
    • UC Irvine (Big West) (13)
    • Utah Valley (WAC) (13)

    Projected No. 12 Seeds

    • Akron (MAC) (11)
    • High Point* (Big South) (12)
    • McNeese* (Southland) (12)
    • Yale (Ivy) (12)

    Projected No. 11 Seeds

    • NC State (ACC) (10)
    • UCF (Big 12) (Bubble Out)

    Play-In Game

    • Miami University (MAC) (11)
    • SMU (ACC) (10)
    • USF (American) (12)
    • VCU (Missouri Valley) (Bubble Out)

    Everyone here will be simultaneously happy to be in, and sort of grouchy that they’re in an 11 spot. With a little help, one of these teams could move to a 10 if …

    Projected No. 10 Seeds

    • San Diego State (Mountain West) (11)
    • Santa Clara (West Coast) (10)
    • Texas (SEC) (11)
    • Texas A&M (SEC) (10) 

    Again, the call is that San Diego State will get a decent seed by winning the Mountain West championship over Utah State. However, if it doesn’t, that opens things up for a current 11.

    Projected No. 9 Seeds

    • Iowa (Big Ten) (8)
    • Saint Louis (Atlantic 10) (9)
    • TCU (Big 12) (8)
    • Utah State (Mountain West) (9)

    All four of these will be hoping for an 8, but will secretly be happy to not be a 10.

    Projected No. 8 Seeds

    • Georgia (SEC) (7)
    • Saint Mary’s (West Coast) (8)
    • UCLA (Big Ten) (9)
    • Villanova (Big East) (8)

    Villanova shouldn’t be this high, but it will. UCLA got hot at just the right time to be at least a 9, and likely an 8.

    Projected No. 7 Seeds

    • Clemson (ACC) (7)
    • Kentucky (SEC) (7)
    • Miami (ACC) (7)
    • Ohio State (Big Ten) (9)

    All four of these seeds will be hoping and praying to be out of the 8-9 world. Out of all the seeds, this one is the most fluid.

    Projected No. 6 Seeds

    • BYU (Big 12) (6)
    • North Carolina (ACC) (6)
    • Tennessee (SEC) (5)
    • Texas Tech (Big 12) (5)

    It’s the land of the disappointing conference tournament teams. One or two could slide into a 5, but at the very least, the 6 should be the floor.

    Projected No. 5 Seeds

    • Kansas (Big 12) (5)
    • Louisville (ACC) (6)
    • St. John’s (Big East) (5)
    • Wisconsin (Big Ten) (6)

    Kansas getting rocked by Houston doesn’t matter that much, but Wisconsin getting by Illinois should be enough to push it here – there’s a shot it could be 6, though.

    Projected No. 4 Seeds

    • Alabama (SEC) (4)
    • Gonzaga (West Coast) (4)
    • Nebraska (Big Ten) (3)
    • Vanderbilt (SEC) (4)

    Again, this will all get a final refresh after the conference tournament finals, but the assumption is that Vanderbilt has a hard ceiling of a 3 seed, and will likely end up as a 4.

    Projected No. 3 Seeds

    • Arkansas (SEC) (4)
    • Michigan State (Big Ten) (3)
    • Purdue (Big Ten) (3)
    • Virginia (ACC) (3) 

    Arkansas is the wild-card in this bunch, but there isn’t anyone among the 4 seeds able to make too much of a push.

    Projected No. 2 Seeds

    • Houston (Big 12) (2)
    • Illinois (Big Ten) (2)
    • Iowa State (Big 12) (2)
    • UConn (Big East) (2)

    Illinois getting knocked out of the Big Ten Tournament by Wisconsin – along with a rough finish – might make it a three, but the other three projected 2 seeds should be set.

    Projected No. 1 Seeds

    • Arizona (Big 12) (1)
    • Duke (ACC) (1)
    • Florida (SEC) (1)
    • Michigan (Big Ten) (1) 

    Lock it in. These four have been the No. 1 seeds throughout the process, and that won’t change now.

    This story was originally published by College Football News on Mar 14, 2026, where it first appeared in the College Basketball section. Add College Football News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.

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