NCAAF Picks, Week 3 Predictions: Stuckey’s 4 College Football Evening Spots — 9/19
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While a top-10 SEC duel between LSU and Ole Miss is priority No. 1 during the Week 3 college football evening slate, I’m eyeing four games/spots with significant value.
My primary goal of this piece is to simply share a few key angles, notable matchups and injury situations for each particular game that hopefully will make you a better bettor.
For full reference of all my spots for Week 3, here’s the full piece. This is the second spots piece that I’ve completed this season. So, here’s my NCAAF picks for Week 3.
- 2022-25: 223-178-3 (55.6%)
- 2026: 8-5-1 (61.5%)
- Overall: 231-183-4 (55.8%)
NCAAF Picks, Week 3 Predictions for Evening Slate
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 7 p.m. | South Alabama -4 |
| 7 p.m. | Rice +9.5 |
| 7:30 p.m. | New Mexico +23.5 |
| 8 p.m. | UTSA +30.5 |
Coming into the season, I thought Ohio would be way down due to a major downgrade at quarterback and receiver. After two games, I have not changed my tune.
And now, the Bobs may be down to a third-string freshman quarterback after the top two got hurt last week in a thrilling win over Jacksonville State.
Speaking of that game, Ohio got extremely fortunate and somehow pulled a rabbit out of its hat despite Jacksonville State (which missed a game-winning 38-yard field goal by a reliable kicker) holding a 447-262 yardage edge. It was the luckiest victory of the week, per my numbers.
Now, following a back-and-forth four-overtime affair (that came after a beating at Nebraska) in which a number of starters got banged up, the Bobs head down to Mobile for a nonconference game against South Alabama, which found itself on the opposite end of the spectrum last week.
In a four-point loss to Tulane, the Jaguars actually outgained the Green Wave, 478-424.
Senior quarterback Bishop Davenport played one of the best games of his collegiate career, throwing for nearly 300 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions while adding another 50 on the ground.
Behind an offensive line that has exceeded my preseason expectations through two games, he should have ample opportunities to exploit a vulnerable Ohio secondary in the quick passing game.
And if South Alabama jumps out to a lead, the Bobcats won’t have much recourse with a decimated offense (and super shaky kicking game).
This is a very tough spot for a beat-up Bobs team that certainly doesn’t play to the same level away from home.
Ohio is a different team at home, where they hold the nation’s second-longest winning streak of 14 games. The Bobcats have also historically crushed ATS (60% since 2005) in Athens.
Incredibly, over the past five seasons, they have gone 18-3 ATS (85.7%) in Peden Stadium vs. FBS competition, covering by nearly a touchdown per game. However, they have been much more pedestrian away from home over that span at 12-14 ATS.
Pick: South Alabama -4 (Play to -6.5)
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I believe Western Michigan is still getting a bit too much respect for that effort against Michigan.
The Broncos deserve a ton of credit for that effort, but they simply played out of their minds on the defensive end, while Michigan appeared dazed and confused throughout.
Coming into the season, I had real concerns for their defense, which lost a ton of production from a dominant unit (in addition to a defensive coordinator who now runs the show for an NFL team).
Well, we saw some of those cracks last week against FCS Monmouth. Yes, WMU did cover in a 49-14 victory, but that final score was very misleading.
Believe it or not, Monmouth actually finished with more yards (431-414), but were done in by four failed fourth-down attempts and a -2 turnover margin.
Now, the Broncos head down to the extreme Houston heat for a nonconference bout against Rice one week prior to hosting Boise State in a massive game with G6 playoff implications.
This is a major flat spot in which the Broncos could easily get caught looking past the Owls.
More importantly, this is a matchup of two snails that rank in the bottom 10 nationally in pass rate and bottom three in seconds per play.
This will mirror an old service academy clash with an astronomically high run rate that keeps the clock moving rapidly throughout.
Plus, Rice quarterback Jacurri Brown has dropped back a grand total of 23 times through two starts.
In regard to this particular matchup, the Rice secondary has major holes, but that’s not as important against the run-heavy Broncos.
And while the scoreboard was ugly last week at Notre Dame in a 52-0 loss, the Owls’ run defense actually held up well, holding the Irish to just 118 rushing yards on 32 carries for an average of 3.7 yards per carry. That’s encouraging ahead of this matchup.
Don’t expect many possessions in this one, hence the low total of 44. That obviously makes the home underdog north of a touchdown more attractive. It won’t take much from the Rice offense to keep this close.
Believe it or not, Rice has been one of the 10 most profitable home teams in the country since 2005. Over that span, the Owls have gone 59-45-6 ATS (56.7%) against FBS opponents in the usually half-empty Rice Stadium.
Pick: Rice +9.5 (Play to +8)
Note: I’m personally waiting to see if a +10 or better pops again before locking in.
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This is a tough spot for Oklahoma following a deflating loss at Michigan, with a trip to Athens to take on Georgia next. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Sooners came out a little bit flat against a New Mexico team that has bludgeoned its first two opponents.
Yes, the competition was weak, but the dominance can’t be questioned in a pair of victories by almost 100 points over Mercyhurst and Central Michigan, which barely combined for 300 total yards.
This is one of the most experienced and saltier Group of 6 defenses that won’t be intimidated by the stage or opponent.
Additionally, the Sooners have some major issues at the moment.
The running game hasn’t been fixed, which maybe isn’t too surprising since it’s very reliant on a Colorado State transfer to headline the backfield.
Quarterback John Mateer is the best option in that department, but I doubt Venables wants to unleash his legs against New Mexico any more than he has to prior to an SEC gauntlet.
Mateer also still has accuracy issues and can be a bit too careless with the rock at times, so don’t be surprised if the Lobos take one or two away.
The Sooners also continue to deal with offensive line issues, which haven’t helped the lackluster rushing attack. They’ll also be without one of their top receivers in Trell Harris, which will make life much easier for the Lobo secondary.
Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images. Pictured: New Mexico head coach Jason Eck.The Oklahoma defense is still one of the best in the country, but it appears to be a notch below last year’s unit and now will have to make do without stud linebacker Kip Lewis.
And regardless of what you think of this Sooners’ stop unit, the depth certainly isn’t as elite as 2025.
New Mexico obviously won’t have an easy time moving the ball, but I trust Jason Eck to draw up enough creative plays to put some points on the board.
In a game with a total sitting at 46.5 at the moment, it may only take 10 points to get to the window. Plus, it doesn’t hurt that New Mexico has elite special teams.
At a bare minimum, the Lobos will eat up the clock when they have possession, and they won’t operate with tempo.
They also have great depth at the quarterback position, so there won’t be a significant drop-off if the game gets out of hand. They could easily sneak in the backdoor if needed.
I think anything north of three touchdowns deserves a look in what should be a lower-scoring game and a potential flat spot for the Sooners.
This is also a very difficult offense to prepare for, and it’s possible Oklahoma spent a good chunk of this week prepping for its next two opponents in Georgia and Texas.
New Mexico easily covered in its two road games against P4 teams last year, gaining valuable experience in hostile environments. It lost by just 17 to Michigan and won outright (by 25) at UCLA as a 35.5- and 15.5-point underdog, respectively.
Pick: New Mexico +23.5 (Play to +21.5)
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I’m really banking on a flat effort from the Longhorns here following a miraculous comeback against Ohio State with Tennessee on deck.
Texas comes into this game ranked No. 1 in the nation, but there have been some cracks on the defensive end.
In the opener against Texas State, the Bobs moved the ball pretty easily in the first half but just couldn’t finish drives, while Ohio State built a 20-point second-half lead in Austin before getting too conservative.
UTSA should be fired up for this one against in-state big brother.
Plus, it has a bevy of key starters who were on the team two years ago when it lost, 56-7, at Texas in Arch Manning’s first coming-out party when he went off after coming in for an injured Quinn Ewers.
I do worry about the tackles getting worked here against the Texas front, which would spell bad news for quarterback Owen McCown, who can really struggle under pressure.
The defense is also nothing to write home about, but this is a very experienced group with one of the better G6 coaches in a premier spot, so I’ll trust them to keep this within 30.
Top-25 teams coming off a top-25 matchup as favorites of 3-plus points have gone just 79-107-2 (42.5%) ATS since 2005. And when the stakes were even higher in a battle of top-10 teams, the ATS splits are even worse at 18-35-1 (34%).
Pick: UTSA +30.5 (Play to +30)
Note: I’m personally waiting to see if a +31 pops before locking this in.
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