Nebraska vs Indiana: The Numbers Behind a 20-17 Loss

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Nebraska vs Indiana ended 20-17, and Nebraska had a two-score lead in the fourth quarter before it got away. That one hurt. I’ll say this up front: I think this team is playing better football than Nebraska has played in a very long time. For those of you who see the world in black and white, that doesn’t matter. This was a loss. I don’t believe in moral victories, and I think they’re kind of stupid anyway.

The ranked-opponent streak lives on, now 31 straight losses to Top 25 teams. It would have been nice to see that one end. Still, it was a great weekend in Lincoln with 85,000-plus of my closest friends at Memorial Stadium.

One personal note before the numbers. I’m still recovering from the weekend, and drinking had nothing to do with it. Since the stroke, travel wipes me out, and it’s really obnoxious. I hope to God that goes away as the recovery continues.

Now, the statistics.

Nebraska vs Indiana: The Offense Against the Standard

Quick refresher for anyone new: every benchmark below is the top 25% nationally in that category.

Points scored: 17 (target 32) — miss
Yards per play: 4.9 (target 6.1) — miss
Yards per pass attempt: well short of 8.0 — miss
Explosive plays: not enough, and not long enough — miss
Third down conversions: 10 of 19 (target 44%) — hit
Red zone touchdown rate: 1 of 3 (target 67%) — miss
Sacks allowed: 4 (target 1.6) — miss

Obviously, 32 points wins this game. Yards per everything was a mess.

Third down was one of the few hits, and it mattered. In the first half Nebraska controlled the possessions, and what I mean by that is Indiana’s possessions. The Huskers held the ball for more than 22 minutes of the first half and kept the Hoosiers’ offense on the sideline. That was an excellent plan, and it worked.

Where the Game Was Lost

If I had to point to one statistic in this whole group, it’s red zone touchdown rate. One of three.

Nebraska shut Indiana down for most of the first half and got 10 points for it. Then Kyle Cunanan missed a 40-yard field goal right before halftime. Sitting in the stands for that was disheartening, and I’m sure it was at home too. Nebraska should have gone into the locker room with a two-score lead.

The sacks are the other ugly line. Anthony Colandrea said after the game that he held the ball way too long.

Explosive Plays, and Maybe a New Category

I might need to create a “super explosive” category for plays over 40 yards. Indiana had two, both from Josh Hoover to Nick Marsh. The first was the 75-yard catch-and-run on the very next snap after Nebraska went up 17-6. The second was the 44-yard touchdown on fourth-and-1, where, oh my God, everybody was open.

Colandrea’s 39-yard touchdown run misses that cutoff by one yard.

Now look at Nebraska’s explosive plays and who made them. The running backs produced exactly one: a 13-yard run by Jamal Rule.

Before the game, I had pretty good tickets in the north end zone, and Hoss Reuter saw me and came down to talk. I asked him what he thought Indiana would do. He said they would control Jamal Rule and make sure he didn’t get loose for any big runs. Look at the list again. One 13-yard run. Indiana did exactly what he said they would.

Offensive Balance

This was the one game where the offensive balance wasn’t balanced at all. Nebraska ran 39 times for 3.3 yards per carry. That’s not great. Indiana has a very good defense, and this was a top-10 team in the country.

Who Let This Team Down?

Everybody thinks the coaches let this team down. I call BS on that.

Go back and watch the game. The missed field goal. A number of badly missed blocks. Colandrea missed some long throws that would have helped win the game. Receivers missed balls. A fumble on one series put Nebraska behind schedule and badly damaged its ability to keep scoring. The players on the field have to execute.

The idea that Matt Rhule is some terrible coach who doesn’t do anything is ridiculous, at least for this game.

Nebraska vs Indiana: The Defense Against the Standard

Points allowed: 20 (target 20) — hit
Yards per carry allowed: 3.0 (target 3.7) — hit
Opponent red zone trips: hit, because Indiana never needed the red zone
Sacks: miss
Takeaways: 0 (target 1.75) — miss
Turnover margin: minus 1 (target plus 0.5) — miss

If I’d told you at the start of the season that Nebraska would hold Indiana to 20 points and shut down their running game, you would all have thought I was full of it. That’s exactly what happened. Indiana came in averaging more than 250 rushing yards a game and left with 65.

We all thought the front seven, especially the defensive line, would get run over by anybody in the Big Ten with a good ground game. That did not happen.

What we missed were sacks, takeaways, and turnover margin. All three would have helped win this game. Against lesser opponents, we missed on that stuff and won anyway. Against a top-five or top-10 team, in a game this close, every mistake costs you.

How Indiana scored: two field goals and two big plays. Infuriating after Nebraska played so well for most of the game. That kind of stuff happens.

Special Teams

The punter did a very good job. Three punts, averaging better than 57 yards. The field goal unit, on the other hand, could have cost us the game by itself.

Penalties and Officiating

Some people in the YouTube comments on my postgame reaction said I blamed the referees for this loss. I never said anything like that. Postgame reactions are just that, reactions. I haven’t gone back and examined anything yet. Penalties did not cost Nebraska this game, and I don’t think it was horribly officiated.

But this is now three weeks in a row that the Big Ten has had to come out and explain officials missing something crucial. This time it was the spot on Oregon’s two-point conversion against UCLA. Does that not bother you? Do you not watch the rest of college football? This is a billion-dollar business.

The week before, I watched a game with something like 20 penalties in the first half, and then the flags mostly disappeared, as if somebody called down to warn them about setting a record. Nebraska-Indiana went the other direction. I think there was one penalty in the first half, and then the flags started flying like somebody had a quota.

I’ve also said that a hold away from the play that doesn’t affect the play shouldn’t be called. Same with an ineligible man downfield. Where I got that idea is a 2010 Corn Nation article I did with a friend who was a Division I official. Here’s part of what he told me:

A lot of emphasis is placed upon point of attack. The referee and umpire are going to watch the play flow. They’re not going to worry about the opposite side. If they see something on the opposite side, for example, a hold, they will tell a player that it would’ve been a hold had it been in the point of attack, as a warning or to instruct the player. This technique is called preventive officiating, and by doing this, the player is aware that the officials are watching him closely.

He continued that calls have a lot to do with advantage and disadvantage. If a player gains an advantage on another player because of an illegal move, it’s a foul. If he doesn’t, it isn’t.

That’s where I get the idea that a penalty should affect the play. You don’t call something 20 yards behind the action that has no apparent effect on the outcome.

So do officials still practice preventive officiating? If you’re a Division I official, I would love to hear from you so I can update that article. I think they’re calling far more penalties than they should, and it screws up the flow of the game.

The Fourth-Down Call

The big decision people around me in Memorial Stadium were talking about came with 4:47 left in the fourth quarter, when Rhule went for it on fourth down in Nebraska territory. A lot of people said it was a terrible call and that he should have punted.

I don’t think it was terrible. If Nebraska punts and never gets the ball back, everybody complains that he didn’t go for it. That fourth-down decision was one decision among a crap load of other decisions made during this game.

Everybody blames Rhule for the zero-for-ranked-teams thing. Most of that came while he was cleaning up Scott Frost’s mess. In year four, this team looks like it might finally beat a ranked team.

What the Film Showed

I went back and watched this game because a few things really bothered me. Lots of missed blocks. The missed field goal. Holding calls. Dumb penalties.

On the late series at 1:35, Nebraska ran what looked like a counter with three Nebraska blockers out in front of the ball carrier. None of the three blocked anybody. If one of them does, that play might go a long way, maybe to the end zone.

At 1:26, people complained about the go route Colandrea threw into double coverage. You run a go route in that spot to pull defenders. Colandrea didn’t see Jacory Barney, who I think was open on the right side and probably would have had a first down.

So I’ll say it again. The players are as responsible for this loss as the coaches.

They’re Not Kids

I said this in the YouTube comments and got some pushback. One commenter wrote: “Please don’t blame the kids. This is on the coaches.”

They’re not kids. This isn’t sixth-grade football, and it isn’t 12th-grade football. I’ve raised three kids of my own, and they’re all adults now. When did they become adults? At 18. They can sign contracts. They can join the military. When they get in trouble, they go to jail. If you stop treating people over 18 like children, maybe they’d act more like adults. That doesn’t mean we abandoned our kids at 18. We helped them. But we treated them as adults.

And now we’re paying players. If the reported numbers are right, Colandrea is making somewhere around $2 million this year. That subjects players to criticism. I’m not saying anything about their mothers. I’m sure they all have wonderful mothers, and that would be rude. I’m talking about not playing well on the field in a tight game against a very, very good team. I don’t have a problem with that.

The next comment said, more or less: LOL, yes they are kids, don’t be such a crotchety old a**hole.

“Crotchety old a**hole” is probably going on my tombstone. Then again, I won’t be there to argue about it.

The kids played well. There’s a lot of talent on this team. They also missed blocks and missed receivers, and I don’t think Colandrea played as good a game as he could have. That’s why Nebraska lost. If you want to be a top-10 team, this is the kind of game you learn from. The lesson is to block as hard as you can on every single play.

Next Up: Oregon

Nebraska heads to Eugene for a 10 p.m. Central kickoff. Oregon was a top-five team to start the year, and in the first couple of games they were terrible. Losing to Oklahoma State was shocking, and they played like they didn’t care.

Dante Moore probably should have gone to the NFL. He’s dealing with a concussion from the USC game.

Will Dylan Raiola start? Maybe. He started against UCLA and got benched in the fourth quarter. Who cares. Nebraska needs to play a good game without a lot of these mistakes, like, I don’t know, missing a field goal, missing blocks, and taking penalties. Do that and we can beat them.

If Raiola plays, I hope he does terribly. That isn’t anger or revenge. I just want Nebraska to win. I wish the guy the best of luck. He got to play at Oregon, and we got a better quarterback out of the deal.

Oregon also lost its coordinators from last season, and I think that’s a big reason they’re struggling.

This game comes at a critical point. Nebraska just lost to a ranked team, and everybody’s angry about not beating ranked opponents. Oregon would be a good win, and I’d like to be more positive next week instead of putting up with all the angry Matt-Rhule-is-a-used-car-salesman people. Oregon is still ranked in the coaches poll. Will beating them be good enough for everybody? I don’t know. I think we should just keep winning games.

Look around college football right now. Florida State wants to get rid of its coach. Texas A&M wants to get rid of Mike Elko. Penn State fired James Franklin, and now people want to get rid of Matt Campbell. Everybody wants everybody fired for every reason.

When I got back to my sister’s house after the game, she said Nebraska should fire the defensive coordinator, even though we’re playing better defense than we’ve had in God knows how many years. Fire, fire, fire.

Matt Rhule is our head coach. I may have my doubts about whether he gets us over the mountaintop, and by the mountaintop I mean the College Football Playoff. That’s no reason to walk into every game expecting to lose.

That’s good enough for this one.

Go Big Red.

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