No. 1 Ohio State vs. UCLA prediction: Odds, expert picks, team and player news, trends, and stats

The nation's top-ranked college football team, the Buckeyes of Ohio State (9-0, 6-0 Big Ten) welcome the UCLA Bruins (3-6, 3-3 Big Ten) to the Horseshoe for the first time since 1999.

Lets dive into the matchup and break down the key storylines.

Dominant Buckeyes

• Offensive firepower: Ohio State's offense is firing on all cylinders, averaging over 440 yards per game. Led by quarterback Julian Sayin and star wide receiver Jeremiah Smith, the Buckeyes are a significant threat in both the run and pass game.
• Best-in-class defense: Ohio State's defense has been stellar this season, ranking first nationally in total defense by giving up just 211.6 yards per game.
• Motivation: Despite facing a struggling UCLA team, Ohio State head coach Ryan Day has been emphasizing focus ahead of the game and the looming showdown against Michigan in two weeks.

Struggling Bruins

• Offensive struggles: UCLA's offense, led by quarterback Nico Iamaleava, has been inconsistent and ranks 104th in the FBS in total offense. A key issue has been pass protection and a sputtering run game.
• Defensive vulnerabilities: The Bruins' defense has been a major concern, particularly on third downs. They are last in the nation in third-down stops, and their secondary will be tested by Ohio State's prolific passing attack.
• Tough schedule: The Bruins face a brutal schedule to close out the season, with Ohio State followed by games against Washington and USC.

All-time Series: Tied at 4-4-1

Game Details and How to Watch No. 1 Ohio State vs. UCLA

• Date: Saturday, November 15th, 2025
• Time: 7:30PM Eastern
• Site: Ohio Stadium
• City: Columbus, OH
• TV/Streaming: NBC/Peacock

Game Odds for No. 1 Ohio State vs. UCLA

The latest odds as of Thursday courtesy of DraftKings:

• Moneyline: Ohio State Buckeyes (-8000), UCLA Bruins (+2200)
• Spread: Ohio State -31.5 (-115)
• Total: 47.5 points

Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the college football schedule!

Ohio State Buckeyes

Head Coach: Ryan Day
2025 Record: 9-0 (8-0)
Offense Ranking: 8
Defense Ranking: 1
Strength of Schedule: 39

Ohio State enters mid-November at 9-0 with the No. 1 SP+ rating in the country, boasting an elite defense (1st in Def. SP+) and a ruthlessly efficient offense (8th in Off. SP+) led by a passing attack that ranks No. 1 in both success rate and completion rate. The Buckeyes are overwhelming opponents with a +29.1 actual scoring margin (3rd nationally) and lead the country in points per drive allowed (0.73) and yards per play allowed (3.79), thanks in part to a ferocious pass rush and a secondary surrendering just 3.9 yards per dropback. Offensively, Ryan Day's squad leads the nation in success rate (56.2%), passing EPA, and third-down conversion rate, though they operate at one of the slowest tempos in the FBS. With a remaining slate of UCLA, Rutgers, and Michigan, Ohio State has a 75% chance to finish a perfect 12-0 and reestablish Big Ten supremacy.

The Ohio State Buckeyes Offense

Ohio State’s offense is built on ruthless passing efficiency, ranking No. 1 in both passing success rate (62.3%) and completion percentage (80.5%), while generating the 4th-best ANY/A (12.3) in the nation. Despite operating at the slowest adjusted tempo in the FBS (31.4 seconds/play, 134th), the Buckeyes average 3.52 points per drive (5th) and 6.99 yards per play (12th), leaning heavily on standard-down dominance (58.5% SR, 1st). Their offensive line is among the best in the country, allowing pressure on just 1.6% of dropbacks (7th) and ranking 10th in total blown block rate. While their run game is efficient (49.0% SR, 19th), it plays a complementary role to a devastating quick-passing attack that ranks 1st in adjusted completion rate (84.0%).

Ohio State Player to Watch on Offense: QB Julian Sayin

True freshman quarterback Julian Sayin has been a revelation for the Buckeyes, completing 203-of-251 passes (80.9%) for 2,491 yards, 24 touchdowns, and just 4 interceptions. He ranks third nationally in adjusted net yards per attempt (11.0) and boasts a sparkling 91.1 Total QBR while averaging 9.4 yards per dropback despite absorbing pressure on just 8.8% of attempts. Sayin’s quick decision-making and accuracy are further reflected in a 62.0% passing success rate and 12.3 yards per completion, both elite marks for a first-year starter. Though not a rushing threat (1.85 YPC, 35.0% success rate), his calm under pressure and preternatural command of the offense have solidified him as a bonafide Heisman contender.

The Ohio State Defense

Ohio State’s defense is an elite, suffocating unit that ranks No. 1 nationally in SP+ and yards per play allowed (3.79), blending ferocious efficiency with stingy explosiveness metrics. The Buckeyes allow just 0.73 points per drive (1st), boast a Top 15 success rate against both the run (11th) and the pass (23rd), and concede a microscopic 3.9 yards per dropback (1st). Their pass rush converts pressure into sacks at an elite rate (27.2%, 11th) while their coverage unit thrives by allowing just 4.5 yards per dropback vs. zone (1st) and the fewest explosive completions in the nation (8.6% of 20+ yard completions, 1st). Led by Matt Patricia, the defense dominates red-zone opportunities (2.83 points per scoring opp, 1st) and ranks 2nd nationally in red zone TD percentage allowed (31.3%), showcasing championship-level performance across every phase.

Ohio State Player to Watch on Defense: LB Arvell Reese

Arvell Reese has emerged as one of the nation's truly elite defenders, piling up 54 tackles with an excellent 94.7% tackle efficiency and a team‑leading 10 havoc plays in just eight games. His ability to create backfield chaos is elite, producing 8.0 TFLs and 6.5 sacks while adding six run stops and consistently winning reps on the edge. As a pass rusher, Reese owns one of the highest pressure rates on the team (26.7%), generating 16 pressures, 4 sacks created, and a strong 2.82‑second average time to first pressure. Reese’s blend of range, violence, and pass‑rush juice have made him a star in Matt Patricia’s defense.

UCLA BRUINS

Head Coach: Tim Skipper
2025 Record: 3-6
Offense Ranking: 70
Defense Ranking: 86
Strength of Schedule: 2

Despite a mid-season three-game winning streak, UCLA’s 3-6 record reflects deep systemic issues, particularly on defense, where they rank 135th in success rate and last nationally in third-down defense. The Bruins are at their worst in standard down defense (133rd) and finishing drives (128th in points per scoring opportunity), surrendering 5.04 points per scoring opportunity and a brutal 77.8% red zone TD rate. Offensively, they’ve been slightly more competent—ranking 51st in success rate and top 30 in both rushing yards per attempt and rushing success rate—but suffer from an anemic passing game (94th in YPA, 116th in ANY/A) and horrific O-line metrics (136th in penalties, 108th in total blown blocks). Head coach DeShaun Foster faces a brutal finishing slate (at Ohio State, vs. Washington, at USC) and is staring down a likely 3–9 campaign unless a late-season upset materializes.

The UCLA Bruins Offense

UCLA’s offense has been inconsistent but not hopeless, posting a respectable 44.2% success rate (51st) while quietly fielding an efficient ground game that ranks 30th in rushing success rate and 28th in yards per carry at 5.5. The Bruins struggle badly through the air, however, sitting 94th in yards per dropback and 116th in ANY/A, with a passing success rate of just 43.3% and nearly 41% of dropbacks gaining zero or negative yards. Finishing drives has also been a major problem—UCLA averages only 4.64 points per scoring opportunity (52nd) and ranks just 79th in red zone TD rate behind an offensive line that is 136th in penalties and 108th in blown blocks. The overall result is an offense that shows flashes in the run game but lacks explosiveness, consistency, and pass protection to keep pace in high‑level Big Ten matchups.

UCLA Player to Watch on Defense: QB Nico Iamaleava

Nico Iamaleava has shown flashes of dual-threat brilliance, throwing for 1,659 yards and 12 touchdowns while also rushing for 582 yards and four scores across nine starts. Despite a modest 63.7% completion rate and a middling 6.4 adjusted net yards per attempt, he leads the Bruins in rushing success rate (63.5%) and yards per carry (7.86), adding significant value with his legs. However, his passing efficiency remains a work in progress, with a 45.9% success rate through the air and a concerning 23.2% sack-to-pressure ratio. Ball security is another area for improvement, as Iamaleava has committed ten total turnovers (7 INTs, 3 fumbles) while posting a decent 65.0 QBR.

The UCLA Bruins Defense

UCLA’s defense has been one of the weakest units in the Big Ten, ranking 135th in defensive success rate and allowing opponents to post a brutal 5.88 yards per play and 2.94 points per drive. The Bruins are routinely gashed on the ground—surrendering a nation‑worst 52.7% rushing success rate and 12.2% stuff rate—while also giving up 7.0 yards per dropback (110th) and a 49.6% passing success rate (131st). Their pass rush is nearly non‑existent, sitting last (136th) in both pressure rate and sacks per dropback, which leaves an overmatched secondary facing clean pockets and high‑efficiency throws. UCLA’s defensive footprint underscores the problems: one of the lowest havoc rates in the country, poor LB disruption, and an inability to get off the field on third down (55.7%, 136th), making this a defense that simply cannot sustain stops against competent offenses.

UCLA Player to Watch on Defense: CB Rodrick Pleasant

Rodrick Pleasant has been a standout performer in UCLA's secondary, holding opposing quarterbacks to a mere 43.6% completion rate on 39 targets while racking up an impressive 8 pass breakups. His sticky coverage has yielded just 3.8 yards per attempt and 0.63 yards per coverage snap, making him one of the most efficient cover corners in the Big Ten despite the defense not performing well overall. Pleasant has added 10 total havoc plays, 3 run stops, and a 1.5 TFL mark, showing he's not afraid to mix it up in run support either. With a defensive QBR allowed of just 13.6, he has locked down his side of the field and elevated the Bruins’ pass defense.

No. 1 Ohio State vs. UCLA team stats, betting trends

• Ohio State has won 18 of its last 20 games following a win
• Ohio State has covered the spread in 7 of its 9 games this season
• The average total game score (55.6) in UCLA's last 5 games is over the Total (48.5)
• UCLA is 3-6 ATS this season
• The OVER has cashed in 3 of Ohio State's 9 games this season (3-6)

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Eric Froton (@CFFroton): Bo Jackson OVER 4.5 Receiving Yards

UCLA lost three linebackers who were selected in the 2025 NFL Draft, including contender for Defensive Rookie of the Year, MLB Carson Schwesinger. Accordingly, UCLA’s linebacker corps has failed to make an impact on opposing gameplans this year, ranking 116th in LB havoc rate (2.4%) for a defense that is currently 131st in passing success rate allowed. In recent weeks, they allowed RB Emmett Johnson to catch 3 passes for 103 receiving yards while all 3 Indiana RBs caught a pass for 10+yards and Maryland RB DeJuan Williams reeled in 7-of-8 targets for 86 yards. Ohio State starting RB Bo Jackson has caught at least one pass for 5+ yards in 6-of-7 games against FBS opponents, and he’s working with the surgically precise QB Julian Sayin who is allergic to unforced errors. With Bo Jackson’s receiving line set at a dirt-low 4.5 receiving yards, I’m taking the surging freshman RB to catch at least one screen/swing pass and easily clear 4.5 Receiving Yards. 

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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the college football calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, stadium information and weather forecasts.

Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.

Best bets our model is projecting for this week’s game between No. 1 Ohio State vs. UCLA

• Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
• Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the UCLA Bruins at +32.5.
• Total: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the UNDER on the Game Total of 47.5.

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