No. 15 Utah at Iowa State: Week 4 college football preview

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Now we get to see if the Utah Utes can take it on the road.

The Utes went through the nonconference schedule 3-0, outscoring Idaho, Arkansas, and Utah State 142-24 and looking like arguably the best team in the conference through three weeks. Saturday is different.

No. 15 Utah heads to Ames for its Big 12 opener and first conference road game of the Morgan Scalley era against an Iowa State team that knows exactly what it wants to do.

Kickoff is set for 1:30 p.m. MT on FOX from Jack Trice Stadium.

Iowa State enters at 2-1 after wins over Southeast Missouri and Bowling Green, with a 16-13 loss at Iowa in between. The Cyclones have been really good defensively. They want to run the football offensively. And with rain expected in Ames, this could turn into a pretty physical game.

That should be right in Utah’s wheelhouse.

Stop the run and make Iowa State throw it

This is the biggest key for me. Iowa State wants to run the football. The Cyclones are averaging 203.7 rushing yards per game and 5.5 yards per carry through three weeks. Aiden Flora leads the way with 328 yards on just 38 carries, averaging 8.6 yards per attempt. He went for 194 yards and two touchdowns against Bowling Green last week and has quickly become the biggest weapon in this offense. Utah has to take him away.

Iowa State is dead last in the Big 12 in passing offense at just 151.3 yards per game. The Cyclones have thrown it only 54 times through three games compared to 111 rushing attempts.

That tells you exactly what they want this game to look like. Run Flora. Let Jaylen Raynor make plays with his legs. Control the game and avoid asking the quarterback to throw it 30 or 35 times. Utah needs to flip that.

The Utes are allowing just 75 rushing yards per game and 2.7 yards per carry, the second-best rushing defense in the Big 12.

If Utah can shut down Flora early and put Iowa State into obvious passing situations, I think this offense becomes a lot easier to defend. Make Raynor beat you.

Get after Jaylen Raynor

Iowa State has not been very dangerous through the air.

Raynor has completed 29-of-52 passes for 434 yards through three starts, just a 55.8 percent completion rate. He has four touchdown passes and one interception while averaging 144.7 passing yards per game himself.

Against Iowa, he threw for only 117 yards. Against Bowling Green, only 133 yards. That is why Utah needs to get him into a game where he has to throw the football. Colton Swan should be aggressive. Jireh Moe, Karson Kaufusi, and this Utah front have consistently affected quarterbacks through three weeks, and this feels like another matchup where they should be able to make the quarterback uncomfortable.

Stop the run on first and second down. Put Raynor in situations where Utah knows he has to throw. Then attack him. Utah’s secondary has allowed only one passing touchdown all season, and opponents are completing just 44.9 percent of their passes against the Utes.

If Raynor has to carry Iowa State’s offense through the air, Utah should like that matchup.

Keep the ball on the ground

Iowa State’s defense has been really good, but there is still a pretty clear way I would attack it. Run the football.

The Cyclones rank second in the Big 12 in pass defense, allowing only 143 yards per game through the air. They are still good against the run, allowing 83.3 yards per game, but that number ranks sixth in the conference. And with the weather looking ugly, Utah doesn't need to make this harder than it has to be.

Lean on the offensive line. Use Wayshawn Parker, Daniel Bray, and Bam Bell. Utah is averaging 232.7 rushing yards per game and 5.8 yards per carry. This offensive line has been one of the team's strengths through three weeks.

If the field gets wet and the ball gets slick, throwing it around 35 times against one of the conference's better pass defenses makes even less sense.Make Iowa State stop the run first. Then let Kevin McGiven build everything else off of it.

Matchup to watch: Isaac Terrell vs. Cedric Jefferson

This is one of the matchups I will be watching the closest.

Iowa State defensive end Isaac Terrell lines up on the left side of the defensive front, which should put him across from Utah right tackle Cedric Jefferson for a good portion of the afternoon.

Terrell is a Lehi native and has already recorded three sacks this season. All three came in Iowa State’s opener against Southeast Missouri, when he also forced a fumble and earned Big 12 Defensive Player of the Week honors. Terrell had seven sacks and 12 tackles for loss at Washington State last season before transferring to Iowa State.

Jefferson has started each of Utah’s first three games at right tackle after transferring in from Montana State, where he started all 16 games for the national champions last season. That is a real matchup.

If Utah wants to stay committed to the run and keep Dampier clean when it does throw, Jefferson has to hold up against Iowa State’s best edge rusher.

Iowa State’s linebackers are legit

This is probably the biggest thing that worries me about Utah trying to line up and run through Iowa State all afternoon. The linebacker room is really good. Willie Breland III leads the Big 12 with 29 tackles through three games. Sullivan Schlimgen has 23, and Carson Willich has 19. Schlimgen was the conference’s leading tackler through the first two weeks, and Willich has already made four tackles for loss.

That group is active and physical. Iowa State’s defense is allowing only 11 points and 226.3 yards per game, and those linebackers are a big reason why. If this becomes the rainy, run-heavy game it looks like it could be, that group matters even more.

Utah’s offensive line is going to have to get to the second level consistently. The running backs cannot leave yards on the field. And Dampier’s legs could become especially important because they force those linebackers to account for another runner on every snap. This is going to be a physical game.

Make Iowa State play Utah’s game

This matchup actually feels pretty simple. Iowa State wants to run the football.

So take it away. Make an offense that ranks last in the conference in passing yards throw the ball. Get after Raynor and make him prove he can consistently beat Utah’s secondary. Then offensively, do not get cute. Run the football behind an offensive line that has been really good through three weeks, especially if the weather makes throwing the ball difficult.

Iowa State has a good defense. Terrell can rush the passer. The linebackers are legit. Jack Trice will be loud, and the conditions may be ugly. This is Utah’s first real road test. But it also feels like a game that fits who the Utes are. Play physical. Control the line of scrimmage. Stop the run. And make Iowa State win the game by doing something it hasn't shown it wants to do. Throw the football.