No. 4 Texas Tech vs. No. 5 Oregon CFP prediction: Odds, expert picks, team and player news, trends, and stats

Its the biggest contrast in the quarterfinals of this season's college football playoff. Texas Tech's elite defense lining up against Oregon's explosive offense January 1 in the Orange Bowl.

Dante Moore and the Oregon Ducks (12-1) scored 66 touchdowns and averaged 39.3 points per game this season. Jacob Rodriguez and the Texas Tech Red Raiders (12-1) allowed more than 17 points just twice all season and never more than the 26 the Sun Devils of Arizona State scored on October 18.

Oregon advanced to the quarterfinal with a 51-34 win over James Madison. The Ducks led 34-6 at the half and played with their food a bit in the second half but advanced to face the Red Raiders who earned a bye in the opening round.

Lets take a closer look at each of these schools on both sides of the ball and even highlight a few players.

Game Details and How to Watch Oregon at Texas Tech

• Date: Saturday, January 1, 2026
• Time: 12:00PM Eastern
• Site: Hard Rock Stadium
• City: Miami Gardens, FL
• TV/Streaming: ESPN

Game Odds for Oregon at Texas Tech

The latest odds as of Monday courtesy of DraftKings:

• Moneyline: Oregon Ducks (-125), Texas Tech Red Raiders (+105)
• Spread: Oregon -1.5 (-112)
• Total: 52.5 points

Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the college football schedule!

Oregon Ducks

Head Coach: Dan Lanning
2025 Record: 12-1
Offense Ranking: 13
Defense Ranking: 5
Strength of Schedule: 22

Oregon powered its way to an 11–1 regular season and an SP+ ranking of 4th, backing up the record with 10.6 second order wins and one of the most complete statistical profiles in the country. The Ducks’ offense ranks 5th in success rate, 7th in EPA per play, and 1st nationally in plays gaining 20+ yards, while averaging 7.08 yards per snap (9th) and 3.27 points per drive (8th). Defensively, HC Dan Lanning’s unit consistently controlled games by limiting efficiency and big plays, finishing 5th in SP+, 8th in EPA per play allowed, and 1st in limiting explosive plays. Oregon’s lone blemish came in a road loss to unbeaten Indiana, but the Ducks responded by closing strong against a solid Big Ten slate that ranked 17th in full-season strength of schedule. With Top 10 rankings on both sides of the ball, an average adjusted scoring margin of 25.2 points per game (5th) and fresh off destroying James Madison in Round 1, Oregon is a legitimate national title contender.

The Oregon Ducks Offense

Oregon’s offense has a well-rounded profile, ranking 5th in overall success rate (50.9%) while producing 7.08 yards per play (9th) and 3.27 points per drive (8th). The Ducks were devastating on the ground, leading the nation in rushing success rate (1st, 52.7%) and EPA per rush (2nd), while also generating big plays at an elite clip with the top mark nationally in 20-plus-yard plays (1st, 10.4%). Through the air, Oregon complemented its run game with strong passing efficiency, posting a 72.3% completion rate (3rd) and a Top 10 adjusted net yards per attempt (10th, 11.3). Overall, this was a balanced, high-ceiling unit that consistently stayed ahead of the chains on standard downs (57.3% success rate, 1st) and punished defenses when opportunities for explosive gains appeared.

Oregon Player to Watch on Offense: QB Dante Moore

QB Dante Moore delivered a highly efficient 2025 season, completing 72.3% of his passes for 3,031 yards at 8.9 yards per attempt with 28 touchdowns against just 8 interceptions, reflecting steady command of the offense. His PFF passing grade of 92.1 and overall offensive grade of 92.3 underscore elite-level consistency, even as his rushing contribution (67.0 run grade) remained more functional than potent. Moore consistently pushed the ball downfield with an 8.6 aDOT while maintaining sterling accuracy (80.9% adjusted completion rate), balancing aggression with control. Under pressure, he showed solid composure with 13 sacks on 372 dropbacks and a manageable 15.3% pressure-to-sack rate, reinforcing his profile as a polished distributor rather than a volatility-driven playmaker.

The Oregon Ducks Defense

Oregon’s defense is built on explosive-play suppression, finishing 5th in SP+ overall while ranking 13th in success rate allowed (36.4%) and 8th in EPA/play allowed (-0.12). The Ducks were exceptional at limiting damage, sitting 1st nationally in yards per successful play allowed (10.1) and tied for 1st in explosive plays allowed with just 3.3% of snaps gaining 20+ yards. While red-zone efficiency was a soft spot (75% RZ TD Rate: 129th), Oregon still held teams to just 1.36 points per drive (10th) thanks to strong early down defense and field-position control. The pass defense was particularly sturdy, ranking 9th in passing success rate allowed (33.7%), 5th in yards per dropback allowed (4.7), and 5th in opponent ANY/A (4.9), giving the Ducks a high-end defensive floor every week. 

Oregon Player to Watch on Defense: Edge Teitum Tuioti

Teitum Tuioti put together an All-Big Ten caliber 2025 campaign, earning strong PFF grades across the board with an 82.4 overall defensive grade, a 77.8 run-defense grade, and a 78.7 tackling grade that reflect steady, assignment-sound play. He was particularly reliable finishing plays, logging 39 total tackles with just six misses for a solid 10.9% missed-tackle rate. As a pass rusher, Tuioti generated consistent disruption with 33 total pressures, including nine sacks and 19 hurries, showing an ability to win both with power and effort. While his pass-rush grade (56.3) suggests room for refinement as a pure edge threat, his production and physical presence made him a dependable, multi-phase contributor along the defensive front.

Texas Tech Red Raiders

Head Coach: Joey Maguire
2025 Record: 11-1
Offense Ranking: 2
Defense Ranking: 4
Strength of Schedule: 65

Texas Tech’s attack played like a track meet with shoulder pads, ripping off 75.1 plays per game (4th) and 13.3 drives per game (2nd) while still producing 6.40 yards per play (23rd) and 3.03 points per drive (14th). The big-play component was real—9.2% of snaps gained 20+ yards (6th) with strong marginal explosiveness (19th)—and the passing game stayed on schedule behind a line that barely leaked pressure (1.6% pressure rate allowed, 4th) while posting 0.27 EPA per dropback (15th). If there’s a nit to pick, it’s that the run game wasn’t always efficient snap-to-snap (rushing success rate 44.5%, 57th) and the Red Raiders left points on the table in the red zone (56.2% TD rate, 101st). Still, elite field position (average FP 36.7, 1st) and a monstrous turnover edge (actual TO margin +17.0, 1st) consistently tilted games in their favor.

The Texas Tech Red Raiders Offense

Texas Tech’s high-volume offense finished 4th nationally in plays per game (75.1) while finishing 36th in success rate and 26th in EPA per play. The Red Raiders generated chunk plays in bunches, finishing 6th in explosive-play rate (9.2%) and 19th in marginal explosiveness, even with a middling red-zone touchdown rate (101st). Their passing game drove the ceiling, ranking 26th in passing success rate and 22nd in adjusted net yards per attempt, while the offensive line allowed pressure on just 1.6% of dropbacks (4th). Texas Tech’s biggest offensive weakness came in ball security and finishing drives, as a 98th-ranked expected turnover total while uneven red-zone execution prevented an already dangerous unit from reaching a fully dominant profile.

Texas Tech Player to Watch on Offense: QB Behren Morton

QB Behren Morton delivered an efficient 2025 campaign, completing 66.3% of his throws for 2,643 yards at a strong 8.7 yards per attempt with 22 touchdowns against just 4 interceptions. His overall PFF grade of 78.7 was driven by a solid passing grade of 79.4, reflecting consistent ball placement and decision-making within Texas Tech’s offense. Morton showed comfort pushing the ball vertically with an 8.1-yard average depth of target while maintaining a respectable 76.6% adjusted completion rate despite a moderate drop rate (8.2%). While his run grade (52.1) and pressure numbers indicate he’s more distributor than creator, Morton’s low turnover rate and steady efficiency anchored one of the Big 12’s most productive offenses. 

The Texas Tech Red Raiders Defense

Texas Tech fielded one of the most disruptive defenses in the country, ranking 3rd in success rate allowed and 1st nationally in defensive EPA per play. The Red Raiders consistently strangled drives, finishing 1st in points per drive allowed (0.81), 1st in yards per drive (19.5), and 3rd in yards per play allowed. Their pass defense anchored the unit, ranking 4th in passing success rate allowed and 2nd in defensive total QBR, while generating havoc at a pristine 4th-best overall rate. Turnovers defined the ceiling, as Texas Tech finished 1st in turnovers forced (31) and 1st in turnover margin (+17.0), turning defensive pressure into game-breaking field position advantages.

Texas Tech Player to Watch on Defense: Edge David Bailey

Unanimous All-American and Big-12 Defensive Player of the Year David Bailey delivered a dominant all-around season in 2025, earning an elite 93.2 overall PFF grade with standout marks as a pass rusher (93.9) and in coverage (84.6). He was consistently disruptive off the edge, piling up 77 total pressures that included 14 sacks, 20 hits, and 43 hurries, while also batting six passes at the line of scrimmage. Bailey paired that havoc with reliable run defense (78.1 run-defense grade) and strong tackling efficiency, recording 35 stops with a manageable 14.7% missed-tackle rate. The combination of high-end pressure production, scheme versatility, and efficiency against both the run and pass made him one of the most impactful defenders in the country this season.

Oregon and Texas Tech team stats, betting trends

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Eric Froton (@CFFroton): J’Koby Williams UNDER 15.5 Receiving Yards

Texas Tech runs a pretty strict 2-back rotation, with RB Cameron Dickey taking the lion’s share of opportunities and J’Koby Williams playing second-fiddle. While explosive in short bursts, Williams is more potent running the ball than he has been out of the backfield, with Dickey outgaining him in the pass game in each of the last four games. In fact, Williams hasn’t cleared his 15.5 Receiving Yards line in any of Texas Tech’s last eight games. With Dickey having wrested control of the RB room, I’m taking J’Koby to go Under his 15.5 Receiving Yards line. 

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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the college football calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, stadium information and weather forecasts.

Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.

Best Bets our model is projecting for the College Football Playoff between Texas Tech and Oregon

• Moneyline: Rotoworld Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
• Spread: Rotoworld Bet is recommending a play ATS on the Oregon Ducks -1.5.
• Total: Rotoworld Bet is recommending a play on the UNDER on the Game Total of 51.5.

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