No. 9 Notre Dame vs. No. 23 Pitt prediction: Odds, expert picks, team and player news, trends, and stats

The 9th-ranked Fighting Irish of Notre Dame continue their march to a berth in the College Football Playoff this weekend with a game in the Steel City against the No. 23 Pitt Panthers.

With games against bottom-feeders Syracuse and Stanford following this weekend's game, this is Notre Dame's last opportunity to make a statement to the committee that they belong in the Playoff again this season. On the other sideline, Pitt is looking to make a late season run at a spot of their own in the tournament. With games remaining against Georgia Tech and Miami, Pitt will get in the Playoff should they knock off all three.

Game Details and How to watch No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 23 Pitt

• Date: Saturday, November 15th, 2025
• Time: 12:00PM Eastern
• Site: Acrisure Stadium
• City: Pittsburgh, PA
• TV/Streaming: ABC

Game Odds for No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 23 Pitt

The latest odds as of Thursday courtesy of DraftKings:

• Moneyline: Pitt Panthers (+350), Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-455)
• Spread: Notre Dame -12.5 (-112)
• Total: 54.5 points

Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the college football schedule!

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Head Coach: Marcus Freeman
2025 Record: 7-2
Offense Ranking: 6
Defense Ranking: 13
Strength of Schedule: 40

Notre Dame has played like a legitimate Top 10 team since dropping their first two games, pairing strength on both sides of the ball (6th offense, 13th defense) with a dominant +21.9 adjusted scoring margin that reflects both efficiency and explosiveness. The Irish offense ranks Top 5 nationally in EPA/play, yards per play (7.35), passing success rate (51.8%), and marginal explosiveness, routinely generating chunk gains while maintaining one of the country’s highest down‑set conversion rates. Defensively, Marcus Freeman’s unit is stingy on standard downs holding opponents to just 38.6% success rate while creating havoc at all three levels and ranking top‑10 in points allowed per scoring opportunity. At 7–2 with two one‑score losses to top‑15 teams, Notre Dame is surging toward a 10‑win season and sitting firmly in the CFP conversation.

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish Offense

Notre Dame’s offense is operating at an elite level once again, ranking No. 6 in SP+ and top‑5 in EPA/play, yards per play (7.35), passing success rate (51.8%), and overall explosiveness. The Irish generate chunk gains at a Top 2 rate in the country, with 14.5 yards per successful play and 26.8% of completions going for 20+ yards, all while maintaining a highly efficient 79.5% down‑set conversion rate. Their balanced attack is equally dangerous on the ground (5.7 YPC, No. 20) and through the air (9.5 YPA, No. 2), supported by an offensive line that ranks Top 10 nationally in penalties and maintains strong blown‑block numbers. With elite early‑down success, explosive passing, and one of the nation’s best young signal callers in CJ Carr, Notre Dame’s offense consistently dictates game flow like a top‑five scoring machine.

Notre Dame Player to Watch on Offense: RB Jeremiyah Love

Jeremiyah Love led Notre Dame’s backfield with 154 carries for 988 yards (6.42 YPC) and 13 touchdowns, posting a 48.7% rushing success rate while converting 31.8% of his runs into first downs. He displayed solid efficiency with 2.45 yards before contact per carry and 3.89 yards after, showing good vision and tackle-breaking ability with 0.22 missed tackles forced per attempt. 18.2% of his runs have gained 10+ yards, as Love has kept the offense on schedule with a low 17.5% rate of carries that went for zero or negative yardage. As a receiver, Love hauled in 24 of 29 targets (82.8% catch rate) for 254 yards and 3 scores, averaging 8.8 yards per target and showing versatility as a weapon out of the backfield.

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish Defense

Notre Dame’s defense has settled in after allowing 41 points to Texas A&M, ranking 13th in SP+ and excelling in both efficiency and finishing drives. The Irish allow just 38.6% success rate (34th) and a stingy 5.03 yards per play (32th), pairing that with strong run defense fundamentals—including 4.0 yards per rush allowed and a Top 3 mark in yards after contact allowed (1.97). Their pass defense is built on disruption and tight coverage, producing a top‑15 overall havoc rate (17.2%), elite PD‑to‑incompletion rate (40.8%, 14th), and holding opponents to just 5.9 yards per dropback (52nd) despite facing aggressive passing games. With top‑10 red‑zone efficiency, advanced pressure numbers (36.6% pressure rate; 21.6% sack-to-pressure), and sturdy situational play on third downs, Notre Dame’s defense consistently suppresses explosive plays and forces opponents into inefficient, mistake‑prone drives.

Notre Dame Player to Watch on Defense: CB Christian Gray

Christian Gray emerged as Notre Dame’s top boundary corner, seeing a heavy 18.6% target rate across 278 coverage snaps while holding opponents to just a 48.1% completion rate. He has allowed only one touchdown on 52 targets and was disruptive at the catch point, recording 2 interceptions and a team-high 9 pass breakups. His aggressive coverage approach forced incompletions on nearly 20% of his targets while limiting explosive plays, conceding just 7.3 yards per attempt despite being challenged deep (13.4 average air yards/target). A sure tackler with 82.8% efficiency and minimal run game involvement, Gray proved to be a reliable outside defender capable of blanketing receivers on an island.

Pitt Panthers

Head Coach: Pat Narduzzi
2025 Record: 7-2
Offense Ranking: 27
Defense Ranking: 33
Strength of Schedule: 50

Pitt has bounced back from last season’s 3-9 disappointment with a 7–2 (5–1 ACC) record under longtime head coach Pat Narduzzi, propelled by a rugged defense ranked 33rd in SP+ and elite special teams efficiency (11th SP+). Offensively, they’ve leaned on explosive plays (10th in marginal explosiveness) to offset a middling 41.7% success rate and inefficient third-down performance (100th nationally), ranking 27th in offensive SP+. On defense, Pitt boasts one of the nation’s top front sevens – ranking 3rd in rushing success rate allowed, 4th in stuff rate, and 6th in overall havoc – though they remain vulnerable in finishing drives, sitting 113th in points allowed per scoring opportunity. With a resume SP+ rank of 22 and a Top 30 SP+ rating despite a weak schedule (SOS 92nd to date), Pitt has exceeded expectations, outperforming their SP+ projection by nearly 6 points per game and remain a contender in the ACC race.

The Pitt Panthers Offense

Pitt’s offense ranks 27th in SP+ and thrives on explosive chunk plays, checking in 10th nationally in marginal explosiveness and 19th in yards per successful play (13.4), despite ranking just 81st in success rate (41.7%). The passing game offers better efficiency than the run – 42.6% passing success rate vs. 41.1% rushing – and generates a strong 7.3 yards per dropback (38th), with 19.7% of completions going for 20+ yards (24th nationally). On standard downs, Pitt ranks 5th in marginal explosiveness despite sitting at 104th in success rate, while they also convert fourth downs at a 70% clip (15th). However, the Panthers struggle to stay ahead of schedule, ranking 98th in plays gaining zero or negative yards and 100th on third-down conversion rate, a reflection of their boom-or-bust offensive structure.

Pitt Player to Watch on Offense: QB Mason Heintschel

Mason Heintschel has been a revelation after taking over for the deposed Eli Holstein, completing 64.1% of his passes for 1,547 yards, 12 touchdowns, and a strong 71.0 Total QBR over six games (five starts). He averaged an impressive 13.1 yards per completion and 8.4 adjusted net yards per attempt, while limiting mistakes with just five interceptions. On the ground, Heintschel adds value with 242 rushing yards on 33 non-sack attempts (7.33 YPC), boasting a 42.4% success rate and a surprisingly high 40.8% rate of rushes stopped for zero or negative yardage. However, ball security remains a concern, as he's fumbled four times (losing two), and taken a sack on 8.0% of dropbacks.

The Pitt Panthers Defense

Pitt’s defense has returned to form under DC Randy Bates, ranking 33rd in SP+ and 10th in defensive EPA/play thanks to elite disruption metrics and a Top 5 success rate allowed (33.6%). The Panthers excel at generating disruption ranking 6th overall in havoc rate with standout production from the linebackers (7th) and defensive line (22nd), while stifling opposing rushing attacks to just 3.3 yards per carry (2nd nationally). They are particularly nasty on early downs, ranking 5th in standard down success rate and 3rd in third-and-long prevention (only 25.9% of attempts come from 3rd-and-short). Despite ranking 112th in goal-to-go TD rate allowed and 129th in red zone TD rate allowed, Pitt’s suffocating pressure (7th in pressure rate) and strong tackling success rate (21st) keep opponents behind the sticks and out of rhythm.

Pitt Player to Watch on Defense: Edge Jimmy Scott

Jimmy Scott has emerged as Pitt’s most reliable edge rusher, tallying 4 sacks and 24 total pressures on 237 pass-rush snaps, good for a 10.1% pressure rate. He leads the Panthers in both total pressures and first pressures (16), while also creating five sacks and forcing one fumble, showing an ability to finish plays. Against the run, Scott has posted 9.0 Havoc plays and 5 run stops with 6.5 TFLs, generating disruption on both early and late downs. With a consistent 2.83-second average to pressure and a 13.7% third-down pressure rate, he remains the engine of Pitt’s pass-rush operation.

Notre Dame and Pitt team stats, betting trends

• Notre Dame has won 3 straight games against Pittsburgh
• Pittsburgh has covered in its last 5 matchups
• The Over is 7-2-1 for Notre Dame's last 5 on the road and Pittsburgh's last 5 at home combined

Rotoworld Best Bet

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Eric Froton (@CFFroton): Cataurus Hicks UNDER 33.5 Receiving Yards

Notre Dame has done a good job correcting course after allowing 98 points in their first three games, holding five of their last 6 opponents to 13 points or less (USC, 24 points) and generating a 5.3% interception rate (3rd). I have watched an unnatural amount of CFB film, and for my money Pitt QB Mason Heintschel has been the most impactful backup QB-turned-starter in the country. OC Kade Bell is rotating receivers to keep fresh legs on the field, with backups Censere Lee (All-American Name Team), Deuce Spann and slot Bryce Yates all performing admirably when called upon. Starting WR Cataurus Hicks has woefully underperformed recently, clearing his 33.5 receiving yardage mark in just two of eight contests against FBS opponents this year. He has dropped two passes in his last three games and is basically a deep shot decoy who occasionally hits a home run but is in danger of being overtaken by higher performing outside WRs Lee and Spann. With Hicks carrying a prototypical Boom-or-Bust profile, take him to go Under 33.5 Receiving Yards and keep an eye to see if we get a U2.5 Receptions line on gameday as well. 

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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the college football calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, stadium information and weather forecasts.

Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.

Best bets our model is projecting for this week’s game between Notre Dame and Pitt

• Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
• Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the Pittsburgh Panthers at +12.5.
• Total: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the OVER on the Game Total of 54.5.

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