North Texas vs Tulane: 2025 American Championship Prediction
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It’s all there for the taking.
Tulane is 20th in the latest College Football Playoff rankings, and North Texas is 24th – one spot ahead of James Madison – and now it’s crystal clear.
The winner gets the same shot as everyone else. Oregon, Oklahoma, Ohio State, Georgia, and all of the rest – the American Conference champion will be in the building, and four wins away from taking the national title.
This is the third American Conference Championship appearance in a row for Tulane and fourth overall. Head coach Jon Sumrall might be leaving for Florida, but he’ll stay around for the rest of the season if the Green Wave get into the playoff.
North Texas is also losing its head coach, and Eric Morris is also staying on until the ride is over before leaving for Oklahoma State – Neal Brown will take over at the end of the season.
North Texas and Tulane in a College Football Playoff Play-In Game
How To Watch North Texas at Tulane
Date: Friday, December 5, 2025
Game Time: 8:00 PM ET
TV: ABC
Location: Yulman Stadium, New Orleans, LA
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Why North Texas Will Win
The Tulane pass defense is about to have a really, really bad day.
It’s been hit for more than 300 passing yards five times, including in both losses. North Texas has 300 passing yards getting out of bed.
The Mean Green are second in the nation in passing behind Florida Atlantic, No. 1 in the country in total offense, and they keep their foot on the gas pedal for a full 60 minutes.
Tulane has a pass rush, but North Texas quarterback Drew Mestemaker gets the ball out of his hands fast enough to combat that. He’ll keep hitting the midrange throws, Tulane can’t miss any tackles, and that’s going to be a bit of a problem.
That FAU team with the best passing game in the game hit the Mean Green for 375 yards, and Mestemaker will get there, too. The bigger key is completion percentage. As long as he’s connecting on 70% of his throws, they’ll be in good shape. However …
Why Tulane Will Win
The North Texas run defense is about to have a really, really bad day.
Teams have to do everything possible to try to control the tempo, and even though they get dragged into a shootout through the air, for Tulane, it’s about running and running some more.
The Green Wave are balanced, but when they run, they tear off close to five yards per carry. North Texas gives up almost five yards per carry, and that’s going to be a problem.
The one loss to USF came when the run defense melted down. Army and Western Michigan ran well, and both took the Mean Green to overtime.
Tulane will dominate the time of possession battle with third down conversion after third down conversion, and …
North Texas at Tulane Prediction, Betting Lines
The North Texas offense will go off.
Tulane will keep up the pace, but it’ll blink.
No, North Texas doesn’t have the defense to hold up, and it’ll give up a bazillion yards, but it’ll also take the right chances and make big plays when the Green Wave start pressing. Jake Retzlaff will throw for over 300 yards, but the two picks will be a killer.
North Texas 40, Tulane 37
Line: North Texas -2.5, o/u: 66.5
ATS Confidence out of 5: 2
Must See Rating: 5
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Consensus Line from BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, and FanDuel. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Related: Kennesaw State vs Jacksonville State: 2025 CUSA Championship Prediction
This story was originally published by College Football News on Dec 4, 2025, where it first appeared in the College Football section. Add College Football News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
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