Not Great, Bob! Shawn Hardie's Betting Recap, Week 12

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I am a process-oriented person. The process matters just as much (if not more) than the result. A bad process (or no process) is terrible in the long run.

However, we don't win money for a good process… we win money with results, and the results have not been there, despite a good process.

I went 2-7 this week, with two of those losses by a half-point each. None of my best bets hit, which means those "old" reliables may not be so reliable anymore. 

Let's review the carnage, er, results.

Best Bets

No. 2 Indiana -29.5 (+100) vs. Wisconsin
Result: Indiana 31, Wisconsin 7❌

The Hoosiers had three drives in the second quarter: six plays and punt, a three-and-out and a nine-play drive that ended in a field goal. A better second quarter (the only quarter without an Indiana touchdown) and we're probably home free.

UCLA team total under 6.5 points (+105) at No. 1 Ohio State
Result: Ohio State 48, UCLA 10❌

Just like with Wisconsin against Oregon a few weeks back, a long pass play provided the impetus for the loss: A 51-yard catch-and-run by UCLA wide receiver Rico Flores Jr. set up the Bruins for their only TD. Of course, their longest pass play of the season came during this game. *sigh*

North Carolina at Wake Forest under 39.5 points (-120)
Result: Wake Forest 28, North Carolina 12❌

Wake Forest, up 21-12 with 33 seconds left, gets stuffed for no gain on a running play on 3rd and goal from the 3-yard line. That should have been the last play of the game… except Bill Belichick called a timeout.

You know what happened next.

 

Deep Dives

Air Force +7.5 (-110) at UConn
Result: UConn 26, Air Force 16❌

No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 11 Oklahoma under 46.5
Result: Oklahoma 23, Alabama 21✅

If we are going to complain when the betting gods are against us, we should give praise when they work in our favor, as this game was 21-20 going into the fourth quarter. The stout Oklahoma defense holding Alabama scoreless in the fourth proved to be the difference.

No. 17 USC -5.5 (-120) vs. Iowa
Result: USC 26, Iowa 21❌

So let me get this straight, Lincoln Riley… down 21-19 with over three minutes left in the third quarter, you decide to go for two (which USC doesn't get)… but on the next possession, after scoring a TD to go up 26-21… you kick the extra point?

Memphis +3 (-112) at East Carolina
Result: East Carolina 31, Memphis 27❌

Memphis led 30-27 with 2:29 left. One stop secures the victory (and boosts their CFP hopes with USF losing to Navy). Except…

No. 5 Georgia -5.5 (-118) vs. No. 10 Texas 
Result: Georgia 35, Texas 10✅

Sticking to your principles paid off here: Arch Manning should be a longer underdog in these SEC road games, especially against Top 5 teams.

This story was originally reported by College Football News on Nov 19, 2025, where it first appeared in the College Football section. Add College Football News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.

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