NOTHING BUT GREEN: Week 1 high school football picks

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Progress sports editor Kevin Green

Last week's record: 3-1 (75%)

Overall record: 3-1 (75%)

The Oklahoman last week: 1-3 (25%)

The Oklahoman overall record: 1-3 (25%)

Sports people are a superstitious bunch.

We wear the same shirt during a winning streak. We sit in the same spot. Some fans won't move from the couch because their team started playing better after they sat down.

I've never considered myself particularly superstitious, except maybe when it comes to OU football. Radio crew over the muted telecast every time, baby.

But I think I might have cost Claremore a football game Friday night.

Hear me out.

Claremore and Sallisaw were tied at 14 when the Zebras took possession at their own 48 with 3:13 remaining. I was sitting next to a Sallisaw fan, and I leaned over and told him, "If it comes down to it, Claremore's kicker Jaxon Burton has a career-long of 46 yards."

Immediately, he and some of the Sallisaw people around us looked concerned.

And why not?

Claremore didn't necessarily need a touchdown. Move the ball 25 or 30 yards, burn some clock and give the ball to a kicker who has already demonstrated that kind of range.

You'd think it'd be tough for the Black Diamonds to get out of this predicament.

But nope. Because on the very first play after those words left my mouth, the Zebras fumbled.

The Black Diamonds recovered, drove down the field and scored the game-winning touchdown in a 20-14 victory.

I've been thinking about it ever since. Am I responsible?

Did I speak Burton's potential game-winning field goal into existence before Claremore had even crossed midfield, only for the football gods to immediately respond, "Absolutely not?"

Maybe I owe coach Jarrett Hurt an apology before Friday's home opener against Bartlesville.

Either way, I've learned my lesson. No prematurely discussing hypothetical game-winning kicks this week.

I'll stick to prematurely predicting entire football games instead.

Let's get into the picks:

CLAREMORE CHRISTIAN 56, Welch 42: This isn't the Welch team Claremore Christian dismantled 50-12 last season.

The Wildcats opened with a 66-18 victory over Cornerstone [Joplin] and rushed for 335 yards, with Colton Moss, Joseph Clinton and Emery Schaper all approaching or surpassing 90. Clinton also threw 3 touchdown passes.

That certainly gets my attention, especially considering the Warriors haven't played an actual game yet after their opener against Crossover Prep became a scrimmage.

Still, perspective matters. Cornerstone lost 56-6 to CCS last season, and the defending Frontier Christian Athletic Association champions still have Grant Schulze at quarterback with Malachi Zehder, Derek Smith and Jaxon Robinett among his weapons.

Welch is much more dangerou, but I don't think it is quite ready to flip a 38-point result in one year.

The Oklahoman's pick: CLAREMORE CHRISTIAN 48, Welch 18

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KETCHUM 42, Chelsea 8: If there is one thing Chelsea probably didn't want to see after Week Zero, it is another team that can pound the football.

Quapaw's Thomas Mathews and Tyler Arnold combined for 343 rushing yards against the Green Dragons last week. Now Ketchum arrives after rushing for 276 yards at 7.3 per carry in a 20-6 victory over Colcord.

Landon Beisley led that effort with 170 yards, while Keegan Johnston added 92.

Chelsea showed some encouraging offensive signs by scoring 24 points in Tim Robison's debut, but until the Green Dragons demonstrate they can consistently stop the run, this is a brutal matchup.

The Oklahoman's pick: KETCHUM 35, Chelsea 17

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SEQUOYAH 27, Cleveland 21: Don't bury Sequoyah after its 42-12 loss to Inola.

The Longhorns might simply be much better than anticipated. Jayce Kent rushed for 253 yards and 4 touchdowns, while Yeshua Rachele completed 13 of 16 passes.

Cleveland has a considerably different problem.

The Tigers turned the ball over eight times in their 32-8 loss to Hominy, including 7 interceptions.

However, their defense actually showed some fight, stopping the Bucks twice inside the 5 and keeping Cleveland within 14-8 into the third quarter. That is enough to make me think this stays competitive.

The Eagles beat the Tigers 64-14 last season, and Bryson Nichols, Gunner Allison and Mason Weeks showed enough offensively against Inola for me to trust them more, especially if Cleveland continues handing out extra possessions.

The Oklahoman's pick: SEQUOYAH 38, Cleveland 13

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Verdigris 31, SPERRY 14: This is one of my more confident picks.

Verdigris returns 10 offensive starters, nine defensive starters and 15 seniors. Sperry is young, inexperienced and installing a new Wing-T offense while moving back to a 3-4 defense.

That is an enormous continuity advantage in an opener.

Peyton Stelling returns after rushing for 1,311 yards last season, Jensen Underwood is back at quarterback and the Cardinals have plenty of weapons around them.

The Wing-T's misdirection could make things uncomfortable early, but Verdigris beat Sperry 27-15 last year and essentially brought its entire team back.

I expect the gap to grow.

The Oklahoman's pick: Verdigris 17, SPERRY 14

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Inola 40, ADAIR 27: This might be the pick I would've been least likely to make a week ago.

Then Inola demolished Sequoyah 42-12.

The Longhorns lost 18 seniors and rebuilt their offensive line, yet Kent ran for 253 yards and 4 touchdowns while Rachele went 13-of-16 for 147 yards and 2 scores without being sacked.

Now comes the real test.

Defending Class 2A-II state champion Adair returns nine defensive starters, but the Warriors suddenly look mortal after a 52-18 loss to Gravette. Their quarterback, top-three receivers, top-two rushers, top-two leading tacklers, interceptions leader and top-four touchdown scorers are gone to graduation.

Remember, even last year's undefeated Adair team only beat Inola 34-27.

My biggest concern is the Longhorns' 12 penalties for 100 yards in Week Zero. That is survivable in a 30-point victory. It could be fatal in a close road game.

Nevertheless, what I saw in Week Zero changed my opinion of the Longhorns considerably.

The Oklahoman's pick: Inola 31, ADAIR 24

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MANNFORD 41, Catoosa 17: I fully expect Catoosa to be better.

The Indians return seven starters on each side, nearly doubled their roster and have an intriguing athlete in Devin Johnson taking over at quarterback. But after an 0-10 season, I need to see the improvement before picking Catoosa against a proven offense.

Mannford returns six offensive starters from a team that rushed for more than 3,000 yards, including 1,000-yard rushers JJ Hindsman and Luke Naylor.

The Indians allowed at least 40 points nine times last season. Johnson and Catoosa's improved collection of skill players should produce some offense, but the Pirates' experienced Wing-T is a difficult first assignment.

The Oklahoman's pick: MANNFORD 42, Catoosa 14

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Hilldale 38, OOLOGAH 23: Don't let last year's records fool you.

Oologah finished 4-6 and Hilldale only 5-6, but the Hornets were considerably more competitive against comparable competition. Hilldale lost to Claremore by six and Fort Gibson by nine. Oologah lost those same games by 40 and 42, respectively.

Hilldale also has more proven pieces, led by senior quarterback Talon Shaffer and running back Kris Gonzalez. The Hornets haven't exactly been an offensive juggernaut during the preseason — they managed only 62 yards against Checotah after an encouraging 21-0 scrimmage victory over Beggs — but experience still favors them.

Oologah's defense gives me some pause. Hunter Schondel, Maverick Plummer, Carter Miller, Ben Hogue and Tucker Rogers are part of an experienced group that could keep the Mustangs within striking distance early.

It is the other side of the ball that worries me.

Only four offensive starters return, Ayden Gaines is gone and sophomore quarterback Brock Lustig is still developing. That is a lot of production to replace immediately.

Oologah's best chance is to force Shaffer into mistakes and turn this into an ugly, low-scoring game. I just don't think the Mustangs can keep it ugly long enough.

Hilldale's experience and established offensive weapons eventually create separation.

The Oklahoman's pick: Hilldale 24, OOLOGAH 21

CLAREMORE VS. BARTLESVILLE

Bartlesville looked ready in a 45-14 rout of Skiatook. Quarterback Michael Kent threw for 332 yards and 3 touchdowns, and Price Lusk was ridiculous with 8 catches for 210 yards and 3 scores.

Claremore's defense is considerably more formidable than what the Bruins saw in Week Zero, and an Ayden Gaines-Lusk matchup could be worth the price of admission by itself.

The question is the other side.

The Zebras managed 202 yards against Sallisaw, with its offense responsible for only 7 points. They committed 13 penalties for 101 yards and lost 2 fumbles.

I'm not overreacting to one game. The Black Diamonds are good, and Claremore lost by only six despite playing an extraordinarily sloppy game. Clean up half those mistakes, and Friday could look completely different.

But Bartlesville has already shown me its offense is ready. The Zebras haven't.

So I'm reluctantly taking the Bruins. And if Claremore has the ball near midfield in a tie game with three minutes left?

Nobody talk to me.

My Pick: Bartlesville 30, CLAREMORE 21

The Oklahoman's pick: CLAREMORE 28, Bartlesville 24

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