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ESPN recently released their 2026 Football Power Index (FPI) which evaluates and measures a team's expected point margin vs an opponent on a neutral field. The FPI also breakdowns down the projected win/loss margins of any given team, their chances to make the College Football Playoffs, win the national title and more. The Notre Dame Fighting Irish came in at No. 3 overall in ESPN's FPI behind the Texas Longhorns (No. 2) and the Ohio State Buckeyes (No. 1). 

There's a lot to digest in these rankings. The Irish are ranked No. 2 in their projected win/loss record at 10.7 and 1.3 (11-1). Texas Tech, despite the quarterback drama from the offseason, is still 0.1 points higher on ESPN's scale to finish with a better record than Notre Dame at 10.8 and 1.8. The Miami Hurricanes are right behind the Irish and have a projected record of 10.4 and 2.3 (10-2). 

Another evaluation the FPI makes is a team's win-out percentage which is a team's percentage of season simulations in which the team won all remaining scheduled games as well as the conference championship game, which we all know isn't applicable for the Fighting Irish. Notre Dame ranks No. 1 in ESPN's FPI with a win-out percentage of 32.7. The next closest team is Texas Tech at 25.2 followed by the Georgia Bulldogs at 10.9 percent. 

The Irish are also No. 1 in the country per the FPI in their percentage to win six or more games at 100.0. This means that in all of the simulations ran to come up with the FPI, Notre Dame got to at least six wins in all simulations ran which is what we also project. Their season and CFP hopes will come down to their matchups with BYU, Miami and SMU. The Irish have been bowl eligible every season since 2000 with exceptions in 2001 (5-6), 2003 (5-7), 2007 (3-9) and 2016 (4-8). They've been bowl eligible in every other season since 2000. 

Notre Dame has the No. 2 best odds to make the College Football Playoffs according to the FPI with a playoff percentage of 74.4 which is slightly behind Ohio State at 75.7 percent. The Irish also have the third best odds to make the title game behind Texas and Ohio State. They also have the third highest odds on the FPI to win the national title behind the Longhorns and the Buckeyes. 

It also comes with little surprise that 12 of the 25 teams in ESPN's Top 25 FPI rankings come from the SEC. Texas is ranked the highest at No. 2 and is rounded out by South Carolina at No. 23. Seven teams from the Big Ten were ranked in the FPI Top 25 including Ohio State, Oregon, Indiana, USC, Michigan, Penn State and Iowa. Three teams from the ACC were listed (Miami, Clemson and SMU) and two teams were listed from the Big 12 (Texas Tech and BYU). Three of Notre Dame's opponents were listed in ESPN's FPI Top 25 with Miami at No. 7, BYU at No. 20 and SMU at No. 24.

Here is the breakdown of Notre Dame's 2026 regular season schedule and where they're ranked in ESPN's FPI from highest to lowest: 

Miami Hurricanes – No. 7
BYU Cougars – No. 20
SMU Mustangs – No. 24
North Carolina Tarheels – No. 42
Wisconsin Badgers – No. 43 
Michigan State Spartans – No. 65
Navy Midshipmen – No. 69
Syracuse Orange – No. 70
Purdue Boilermakers – No. 71
Boston College Eagles – No. 78 
Stanford Cardinal – No. 80
Rice Owls – No. 122

ESPN FPI Top 25

1. Ohio State Buckeyes
2. Texas Longhorns 
3. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
4. Oregon Ducks
5. Georgia Bulldogs
6. Indiana Hoosiers
7. Miami Hurricanes
8. Alabama Crimson Tide
9. LSU Tigers
10. Texas Tech Red Raiders
11. Texas A&M Aggies
12. Oklahoma Sooners
13. USC Trojans
14. Ole Miss Rebels
15. Michigan Wolverines
16. Tennessee Volunteers
17. Penn State Nittany Lions
18. Florida Gators
19. Clemson Tigers
20. BYU Cougars
21. Missouri Tigers
22. Auburn Tigers
23. South Carolina Gamecocks
24. SMU Mustangs
25. Iowa Hawkeyes 

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