Offensive keys to a UNC football victory at archrival Duke

They did it again. For a second time this football season, the North Carolina Tar Heels upset an opponent, downing 25th-ranked Pitt in a 21-17 result.

UNC (3-2, 1-1 ACC) struggled early, not scoring in the first quarter and struggling defensively, but rebounded for a stronger second quarter. North Carolina delivered most in clutch time, scoring a go-ahead, big play touchdown and making the Panthers' (5-1, 2-1 ACC) offense virtually non-existent in late fourth-quarter action.

The Tar Heels return to their home state this coming weekend, making a short trip up 15-501 to face archrival Duke. UNC is hoping to snap a 2-game losing streak in the annual Victory Bell battle, while the Blue Devils (4-1, 1-1 ACC) are hoping to avenge last week's tough, 28-25 loss at Georgia Tech.

North Carolina held a lead in each of its past two matchups against Duke, but cold offense late played a defining factor in each loss. Last fall in Kenan Stadium, the Tar Heels took a 1-point, fourth-quarter lead after Davion Gause's touchdown run. The Blue Devils scored with two minutes left, then shut UNC's offense down on a potential game-tying or winning drive.

North Carolina was in full control of 2024's matchup, leading 20-0 inside Wallace Wade Stadium. The Tar Heels' offense disappeared, while Duke running backs Star Thomas and Peyton Jones helped their team score 21 unanswered points for a 21-20 victory.

Through just five games in 2026, UNC's offense appears much-improved from the past two Victory Bell matchups. North Carolina has a starting quarterback with previous Power Four experience in Billy Edwards, who looks comfortable running the offense. The Tar Heels upgraded their pass-catching room with an offseason addition of Jelani Thurman, while Jordan Shipp is every bit of the ACC's top wide receiver. Offensive line production is still a work in progress, but stepped up last weekend at Pitt.

What does UNC need to do in order to reclaim the Victory Bell and spray-paint it Carolina Blue? Keep reading below for five offensive keys to a North Carolina victory.

Establish an early rhythm

The Tar Heels didn't score a single point in the first quarter at Pitt, which established early rhythm with a touchdown of its own. The Panthers appeared on the verge of a breakout, until UNC's defense made a few stops.

North Carolina isn't going to score on every drive at Duke, but if the Victory Bell is coming back to Chapel Hill, early rhythm needs to be established. Whether this means field goals, touchdowns or pinning the Blue Devils deep in their own territory, the Tar Heels will have their work cut out for them in Durham.

Re-establish the running game

UNC's ground game defined its offense Weeks 1-3, but largely disappeared vs. Notre Dame and Pitt. Demon June scored on a 1-yard plunge vs. the Panthers, but North Carolina totaled 20 yards on 25 carries.

Benjamin Hall earned himself the Tar Heels' RB1 gig, thanks to his breakout game at Clemson. June has five touchdowns, while sophomore back Jaylen McGill has a score and is just south of 100 yards.

Duke allowed 165 rushing yards to Georgia Tech last weekend, which enjoyed a 3-touchdown day from starter Trelain Maddox. If UNC finds a way to produce on the ground in Durham, that Victory Bell is coming back to Chapel Hill.

Offensive line has to block better

Quarterbacks can get comfortable behind a strong offensive line, which can also open up additional running lanes. Edwards is playing solid football under center for North Carolina, but opponents already sacked him 11 times.

The Blue Devils have 11 sacks through five games, which can spell chaos for the Tar Heels. If UNC finds a way to open up running lanes, while minimizing how many times Edwards hits the grass, winning becomes much easier.

Continue getting Jordan Shipp the football

Shipp is currently on a tear, catching 19 passes across North Carolina's past three games. Shipp recorded a career-high 109 receiving yards vs. Notre Dame, then nearly reached the century mark with 93 vs. Pitt.

There's no denying the chemistry Shipp and Edwards have, which is crucial to the Tar Heels' offensive success. If UNC wants to beat its archrival, Shipp needs the football in his hands on Saturay.

Third down efficiency has to improve

Teams that convert their third downs and consistently extend drives typically win games. North Carolina was a rare exception last weekend, converting three of its 11 chances, while Pitt succeeded on nearly half of its tries.

If the Tar Heels fail on third downs, Duke's electric offense will punish their defense. If UNC can convert its third downs and keep the Blue Devils' offense off the field, a victory becomes much more likely.

This article originally appeared on Tar Heels Wire: Offensive keys to a UNC football victory at archrival Duke