Ohio State is No. 1 CFP rankings because they haven’t even tried to play their best yet
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The Ohio State Buckeyes are the No. 1 team in the country in the AP Poll, the Coaches Poll, SP+, FPI, FanDuel Sportsbook (as well as every other book), and every other legitimate college football ranking system or poll out there. However, leading into Tuesday night’s first College Football Playoff rankings announcement of the season, there were some who adamantly believed that the Indiana Hoosiers should sit atop the first rankings thanks in large part to their 30-20 road win over the Oregon Ducks.
However, it was the defending national champion Buckeyes who the committee slotted into first place tonight, with Indiana at No. 2, Texas A&M at No. 3, and Alabama and Georgia rounding out the top five. Other Big Ten schools in the initial rankings are No. 23 Washington, No. 21 Michigan, No. 20 Iowa, 19 USC, and No. 9 Oregon. Additionally, Ohio State’s season-opening opponent Texas came in at 11th.
And while I understand and genuinely respect the argument for a very good Indiana team and even Joey Galloway’s position that the Aggies should be No. 1 based on the metrics, the reason that Ohio State remains the favorite to win the national title is because not only are they already the best team in the country, but they also haven’t even attempted to play their best football yet.
Currently, FanDuel has the Buckeyes as the odds on favorite to win the national title at +220. IU is their closest competitor at +460, with Alabama +750, followed by Texas A&M (+800), and Oregon (+1000).
And while OSU is the current run away favorite to take home the title, they are far from what I believe they will be in Miami on Jan. 19, or even in Ann Arbor on Nov. 29.
The version of the Buckeye football team that we have seen through the first eight games of the season has been fantastic. Their defense has been giddily good, allowing a very nice 6.9 points per game while no one else in the country is under 10. This defensive unit under the coordination of Matt Patricia is good enough to win a national championship with even the worst Ohio State offense of recent vintage, but fortunately, Brian Hartline and Ryan Day’s offense is far from that level.
While through the first two-plus months of the season, the OSU offense has not been nearly as explosive as other units under Day’s direction, what it has been is methodical and efficient. With a first-time starting quarterback and an entirely new running back field (save for the 197 yards that James Peoples had last season), the Buckeyes worked through the first half of the season almost like scientists. They experimented with different plays, schemes, and personnel, trying to get as much data as possible to figure out what the best version of the unit was. Then, after the halfway point of the regular season, they finally started to let the real version of the Buckeyes out of the lab.
In the two games since, against Wisconsin and Penn State, quarterback Julian Sayin has been a combined 56-of-65 (86%) for 709 yards, 8 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. In those games, Carnell Tate has accounted for 235 yard and three scores, while Jeremiah Smith has gone for 220 yards and two TDs.
That is obviously the offensive headline from those two games, but it is also worth noting the change in the OSU running game as well. In the last two games, true freshmen running backs Bo Jackson and Isaiah West have combined for 36 carries and 199 yards, while the two backs that started the season as RBs 1 and 2 C.J. Donaldson and James Peoples have had 13 carries for 48 yards. Donaldson also had the only fumble during those two games (although I think the officials botched that one by not whistling his forward progress stopped). He also had the only running back rushing touchdown of the two games as well.
To me, it has been obvious for a while that the best version of the Buckeye defense is one that throws to set up the pass, not the other way around. And rather than being frustrated in the early going about Day and Hartline doing it the other way around, I think it is clear that what they were actually doing was accessing who and what worked best for the offense.
Now that they have figured that out, I think we are in for another three weeks of runway for the OSU offense to work its way up to equaling the dominance and near-perfection of the defense.
Another significant change that I think that will you see the Buckeyes implement on offense the rest of the way is by varying their offensive tempo. Thus far in the season, OSU ranks dead last in the FBS in terms of how many seconds it takes to run each play at 31.7. However, against Wisconsin that was down to 28.7 and 30.7 vs. Penn State.
While those are not massive differences (even at 28.7 seconds, that would rank in the bottom 15 in the country), the Buckeyes have shown tempo in both of those games. Now, I can’t imagine that Day felt that his team needed to go significantly faster in order to beat either of those teams, so I would guess that he wanted to get Sayin and the offense same legit game reps running tempo, so that they can be ready to quicken the pace of place when the games get more competitive.
For the Buckeyes, the postseason starts during the final week of the regular season, so in the 12-team playoff era, there is no need for the team to be at peak performance until then. So, Day and company have been patiently plotting to get the team ready for the postseason, so the version of the Buckeyes that fans, analysts, voters, and committee members have watched this far in the season is not only the best team in the country, but is also just the beginning of what the 2025-26 Ohio State Buckeyes can and will be.
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