Ohio State, Texas Lead National Championship Odds Coming Out of Week 1
NCAAF College Football News, Photos, Stats, Scores, Schedule & Videos...
Want to get more Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account here.
College football national championship odds have already experienced significant movement following a Week 1 that included Miami presenting two Heisman Trophy candidates and Oregon narrowly surviving an unranked opponent.
Ohio State and Texas (+600) are tied for the lead in national championship odds at BetMGM, but six teams have odds shorter than +1,000.
Key Takeaways
- Texas began the year trailing Ohio State.
- Miami experienced the most significant increase, shortening from +2,000 to +900.
- LSU did not come closer on the oddsboard, despite annihilating Clemson at home.
| Team | Opening | Current |
|---|---|---|
| Ohio State | +600 | +600 |
| Texas | +700 | +600 |
| Notre Dame | +700 | +650 |
| Indiana | +800 | +800 |
| Georgia | +900 | +900 |
| Miami (FL) | +2,000 | +900 |
| Oregon | +700 | +1,000 |
| Texas A&M | +1,500 | +1,500 |
| LSU | +1,500 | +1,600 |
| Alabama | +1,500 | +1,600 |
Texas and Ohio State find themselves knotted at +600 after Ohio State opened as the out-and-out leader, per SportsOddsHistory. Both programs blew out lower-level opponents over the weekend.
Notre Dame sits third at +650. The Fighting Irish were arguably the less-impressive team in the first half of their matchup with Wisconsin, but they dominated the second half to win 41-13.
Indiana, which hasn’t lost a game since December 2024, is just behind at +800. The defending national champions looked in total control during their season-opening 52-16 win over North Texas on Saturday.
Georgia and Miami round out the top contenders at +900 each. Georgia, like the teams already mentioned, experienced no or very little movement in their odds since opening, even after they smacked Tennessee State by 60 points over the weekend.
Miami is the true outlier of the top teams. Its 45-6 victory against Stanford on Friday night — during which Darian Mensah and Malachi Toney announced themselves on the Heisman Trophy trail — helped the Canes' odds shorten from +2,000 at opening. The implied probability of those national championship odds suggests that Miami grew from having a 4.8% to a 9% chance of winning the College Football Playoff (CFP).
CFP odds contenders and challengers
Although none of the top contenders suffered a defeat in Week 1, Oregon came dangerously close.
The Ducks were tied for the second-shortest odds at opening (+700). They fell to +1,000 after a 62-yard touchdown with 0:54 remaining helped them sneak past unranked Boise State, 34-27.
LSU secured the most resounding result of Week 1 with its 51-10 blowout of Clemson. The game got so out of hand that head coach Lane Kiffin was practicing his jump shot on the sideline mid-game.
Kiffin putting up a jumpshot mid game is crazy work ðŸ˜ðŸ˜ðŸ˜ pic.twitter.com/PWoPIwXnHJ
— Jay Johnson enthusiast (@Tigerprodz_337) September 6, 2026
The result was much-needed for a program that couldn’t escape controversy during the offseason. But despite the final score, the Tigers are still longer in odds (+1,600) than they were at opening (+1,500).
Texas Tech, the reigning Big 12 champion, is in a similar position. Its 33-10 win over Abilene Christian did little to assuage concerns over the loss of quarterback Brendan Sorsby, who was stripped of his eligibility for committing repeat gambling violations. TTU is now +2,200 despite opening at +1,500.
The only other top programs to experience noticeable changes in odds were Ole Miss, which closed from +4,000 to +2,500, and USC, which is down from +4,000 to +3,000.
Pivotal matchups
Indiana won last year’s national championship despite opening at +10,000 odds — equal to a 1% implied probability. There are 26 teams with odds of +10,000 or shorter, from Vanderbilt, Florida State and Oklahoma State, up to Ohio State and Texas.
Although there are over three months until the CFP begins, the upcoming weekend will be pivotal in determining the final rankings. No. 10 Oklahoma will pay a visit to No. 16 Michigan, fresh off of the Wolverines' time-expiring Hail Mary victory over Western Michigan, before No. 1 Ohio State will make the trip to see No. 5 Texas. BetMGM has Texas as a one-point favorite.
This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.
More at NCAAF College Football News, Photos, Stats, Scores, Schedule & Videos