Ohio State vs Indiana Prediction: Odds, expert picks, team and player news, betting trends, and stats

The game of the week is #4 Ohio State (5-1) headed to Bloomington, Indiana for a date with the #5 rated Hoosiers (6-0)! It's Ryan Day versus Curt Cignetti. Julian Sayin versus Josh Hoover. Jeremiah Smith versus Nick Marsh and Charlie Becker. There are so many headliners for this game, including how impressive Ohio State has looked since losing to Texas, whereas Indiana has been playing with fire over the past month.

Indiana is coming off a comeback win at Nebraska that was a nail biter. The Hoosiers could have and probably should have lost that game as they were pushed to their limits, but two plays shifted the momentum and outcome in the fourth quarter of the 20-17 win. Josh Hoover connected with Nick Marsh for 75 yards one the first play after giving up a touchdown, then on a 4th and 1 where Marsh went untouched to take the lead. After all the offseason talk about Hoover and his turnover issues, the former TCU quarterback has 17 touchdowns to zero interceptions through six games.

Indiana enters this week ranked top 15 both ways in points per game and points allowed per game. The Hoosiers defense has started strong in conference play. Indiana's allowed 10 first-half points through three Big 10 games and will look for another dominant first half with Ohio State in town. The Hoosiers shut out the Buckeyes in the second half of Indiana's 13-10 Big Ten Championship win last season.

Ohio State has had its way offensively and defensively in conference play. There hasn't been a hiccup from the Buckeyes sideline. Jeremiah Smith has ascended to becoming the Heisman favorite following 27 receptions, 516 yards and eight touchdowns through three games. Ohio State's offense has scored 118 points in those three games (39.3 ppg) and at least 449 yards of offense (483.6 ypg). The Buckeyes defense has held all three opponents, Illinois, Maryland, and Iowa to 19 or fewer points and in the last two games, Iowa's managed 238 yards of offense and Maryland 146!

Let’s dive into the schools on both sides of the ball, look at a few key players, and see where the numbers take us.

Game Details and How to Watch Ohio State vs Indiana

• Date: Saturday, October 17, 2026
• Time: 12:00 PM Eastern
• Site: Memorial Stadium
• City: Bloomington, IN
• TV/Streaming: Fox

Game Odds for Ohio State vs Indiana

The latest odds as of Wednesday courtesy of DraftKings:

• Moneyline: Ohio State Buckeyes (-180), Indiana Hoosiers (+150)
• Spread: Ohio State -3.5 (-108)
• Total: 51.5 points

#4 Ohio State Buckeyes

Head Coach: Ryan Day
2026 Record: 5-1 (3-0)
Offensive Points Per Game: 42.7 (7th)
Defensive Points Per Game: 13.1 (7th)
2026 Strength of Schedule: 29th
2026 Remaining Strength of Schedule: 1st

The Ohio State Buckeyes Offense:

Since losing to Texas, the Buckeyes have scored 59, 42, 31, and 45 points for 44.2 points per game. In three Big Ten games, Ohio State has put up at least 438 yards of offense and went 21-of-40 (52.5%) on third downs and 6-of-7 (85.7%) on fourth downs. Julian Sayin has been throwing dots in that span and Jeremiah Smith has been catching them. The two have arguably the best three-game stretch of any quarterback and receiver duo this season. Sayin has completed 60-of-84 passes for 933 yards and has 12 total touchdowns (11 pass, 1 rush) in conference play, while Smith has 27 receptions, 516 yards, and eight touchdowns; accounting for a 71/55/72 splits for completions, yards, and touchdowns. Shadowing Smith will be the main focus of Indiana's secondary which ranks 50th in coverage grade per PFF.

Ohio State Player to Watch on Offense: WR Jeremiah Smith

Jeremiah Smith enters Week 7 as the Heisman Trophy favorite after a massive three-game stretch. Smith is on a three-game run of 27 catches, 516 yards, and eight touchdowns! Smith is coming off four catches, 93 yards and two touchdowns against Maryland, which snapped his two-game 200-yard streak. However, Smith enters the week looking for his fourth-consecutive game of two-plus touchdowns. He ranks second in the nation for receptions (48), receiving yards (916), and touchdowns (11). Last year against Indiana in the Big Ten Championship, Smith went for eight receptions and 144 yards, but the Buckeyes lost. Smith has gone over 100 yards 15 times in his career and Ohio State is 11-4 in those games.

The Ohio State Buckeyes Defense:

Ohio State's defense has held all three conference opponents to 19 or fewer points to start the season. That extends a stretch of 19 or less points allowed in 18-straight regular season Big Ten games. The Buckeyes rank second in coverage rate, seventh in tackling, seventh in rush defense, and 50th in pressure rate, per PFF. In the last two games, Ohio State's allowed Maryland to throw for 64 yards and Iowa for 199 yards, which brings the Buckeyes to eighth in the country at 150.7 passing yards allowed per game. Indiana has only had to throw in the second half against Northwestern and Nebraska this season. Ohio State will surely sell out on the run and to put pressure on Hoover and force his first interception of the season.

Ohio State Player to Watch on Defense: DL Kenyatta Jackson Jr.

Kenyatta Jackson Jr. had his sack streak snapped last game versus Maryland, but no one on Ohio State recorded a sack on 25 pass attempts from the Terps. In conference play, Jackson has six tackles, 2.5 TFL, two sacks, and a forced fumble. Last year in the Big Ten Championship against Indiana, Jackson earned one of three sacks for the Buckeyes. He will be in the hunt for another one against an Indiana pass protection that grades out at 31st in PFF's rankings.

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#5 Indiana Hoosiers

Head Coach: Curt Cignetti
2026 Record: 6-0 (3-0)
Offensive Points Per Game: 40.2 (14th)
Defensive Points Per Game: 11.8 (5th)
2026 Strength of Schedule: 52nd
2026 Remaining Strength of Schedule: 36th

The Indiana Hoosiers Offense:

Indian's offense has 38 fourth quarter points over the past three games and have scored 58 of their 96 points (60.4%) in the second half. The Hoosiers can't afford a slow start offensively and need to be efficient on third and fourth downs. Indiana went 1-of-10 on third downs at Nebraska and 5-of-10 at Rutgers. The Hoosiers are 40th nationally in third down offense (45.3%), while the Buckeyes are tied 64th with a 36.1% conversion rate for opponents on third down. If Turbo Richard isn't able to move the chains, then Josh Hoover will have to work the ball to Charlie Becker and Nick Marsh as much as possible. Indiana has one of the best receiver duos in the country and hasn't needed to force feed them both, but it may come Saturday.

Indiana Player to Watch on Offense: QB Josh Hoover

Josh Hoover had to step up and deliver some dimes at Nebraska in order to pull out the win. Hoover finished with 263 passing yards on 12-of-22 (54.6%) for two touchdowns, both coming in the fourth quarter. Indiana had next to no run game against the Cornhuskers. The Hoosiers had 65 rushing yards on 22 carries, and Hoover was sacked a season-high two times. He hasn't has to throw the ball more than 29 times yet in a game, but it may be here. If the run game isn't moving the needle, then Hoover will have to channel those fourth quarter performances against Northwestern and Nebraska.

The Indiana Hoosiers Defense:

The Hoosiers pass rush and secondary will be tested versus Ohio State. Northwestern threw for 293 yards on Indiana and Nebraska tossed 263. If Sayin and Smith are still in rhythm, it could be a long day for Indiana's defense. Last week against Nebraska, Indiana allowed 128 rushing yards, which was the second time a team ran for the century mark on the Hoosiers (North Texas, 152). Indiana's defense has forced one turnover in conference play and were outgained 392-328 in yards at Nebraska. Despite the shaky start defensively, Indiana's only allowed 10 first half points in three Big 10 games and committed 11 penalties (8 vs Northwestern).

Indiana Player to Watch on Defense: DL Stephen Daley

Stephen Daley is on a tear. The Hoosiers defensive lineman has five sacks over his last three games and recorded back-to-back games of two sacks on their road trips to Rutgers and Nebraska. Daley started his career with Kent State, but set a career-high 5.5 sacks with the Hoosiers last year. He needs one more sack to break that career-high and at this rate, he's going to double it. Daley had one of the Hoosiers five sacks in the Big Ten Championship last year.

Ohio State and Indiana Stats, Betting Trends

• Ohio State is 4-2 ATS and 4-2 to the Over
• Indiana is an NCAA-worst 1-5 ATS and 3-3 on the total
• Ohio State is 2-0 ATS as the road and 2-0 to the Under
• Indiana is an NCAA-worst 0-4 ATS at home and 2-2 on the game total
• The Buckeyes are 9-1 to the Under as a road favorite since 2024
• The Buckeyes are 7-3 ATS and 9-1 on the ML as a road favorite since 2024
• The Hoosiers are 3-1 to the Under and 2-2 on the ML and ATS as an underdog with Cignetti (since 2024)
• Ohio State is 10-4 on the ML and 11-3 ATS versus ranked opponents since 2024
• The Buckeyes are 9-5 to the Under versus ranked opponents since 2024
• Indiana is 6-2 on the ML and 5-3 ATS versus ranked opponents since 2024
• The Hoosiers are 4-4 on the game total versus ranked opponents since 2024

Rotoworld Best Bets

Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports) has leans for both the side and total, plus a best bet on a player prop:

"If you've watched these teams at all over the past month, I am not sure how you could think Indiana is the better team. The Buckeyes have been rolling and the Hoosiers have been playing with fire. The spread went from Ohio State -1.5 to -3.5. I'd prefer -3 or less for the Buckeyes, but think Indiana's 22-game winning streak ends here.

The Buckeyes are 9-1 to the Under as a road favorite in the last 10 outings and the Hoosiers are 3-1 to the Under as an underdog in the Cignetti era. I'd have to lean the Under here and expected Indiana to sell out to stop Jeremiah Smith and the Buckeyes to stop the run and force Josh Hoover into making tough decisions. I lean the Under 51.5.

I like Josh Hoover to go Over 26.5 Pass Attempts at -117 odds. Hoover has thrown 27 or more passes in two out of six games and two of the past three (vs Northwestern, At Rutgers). Hoover would have likely went Over that total if not for those two explosive plays from Marsh. This looks like a team when Hoover will have to throw 30-plus times because running the ball on first and second downs won't suffice. If you have interception props, I'd say both quarterbacks likely toss a pick despite having one combined on the year, but I'd think Hoover throws his first of the season here."

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