Ohio State vs. Texas prediction, odds, pick for Week 2 blockbuster
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In the past, an early-season game between top-ranked Ohio State and No. 4 Texas might have been classified as an elimination game. The winner would emerge as a potential favorite to end up as the national champion while the loser would somehow try to convince itself that there was still something to play for even though it went down to defeat against a superior opponent.
That’s no longer the case as the College Football Playoff will give the loser of this game another chance — as long as it can rebound from the loss and show dominance in the majority of its remaining games.
Ohio State and Texas have played each other in the last two seasons and Ryan Day’s Buckeyes have gotten the best of the Longhorns each time. Steve Sarkisian should have his team primed for a huge effort as Ohio State travels to Austin this time before the Longhorns’ loud and hungry fans.
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Arch Manning is hoping that he will be in top form for this game, something that was not the case a year ago when Ohio State won a 14-7 slugfest at Ohio Stadium. This time, Manning and Ohio State QB Julian Sayin are looking to earn Heisman Trophy support with their performance in this early-season matchup.
Ohio State vs. Texas odds
Ohio State: +1.5 (-108)
Texas: -1.5 (-112)
Over: 49.5 (-108)
Under: 49.5 (-12)
Ohio State vs. Texas injuries
Ohio State: The Buckeyes did not report any injuries coming out of their season-opening victory over Ball State. They have not reported any new injury updates in the days prior to facing the Longhorns.
Texas: RB Derrek Cooper (ankle), out; OT Trevor Goolsby (knee) has been practicing.
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Ohio State vs. Texas Betting Trends
Ohio State: The Buckeyes are 21-9-1 ATS since the start of the 2024 season. They have covered the spread in 70.0 percent of their games. They have beaten the pointspread by an average of 3.3 points per game. The Buckeyes are 6-3 in road games ATS since 2024, beating the spread by an average of 2.9 points.
Texas: The Longhorns are 14-15-1 ATS since the start of the 2024 season. They have covered the spread in 48.3 percent of their games. They have beaten the spread by an average of 0.2 points per game. Texas is 9-5-1 ATS in home games since the start of the 2024 season. They have beaten the spread by an average margin of 2.7 points per game at home.
Keys to Ohio State vs. Texas matchup
On offense, Ohio State is looking forward to unleashing Heisman Trophy candidate Jeremiah Smith against the Longhorns. Smith has been dominant for Ohio State in his first two seasons with the Buckeyes, but he has yet to have an explosive game against the Longhorns. He has seven receptions for 46 yards in Ohio State’s previous two victories over Texas.
Quarterback Julian Sayin, another Heisman Trophy candidate, is likely to get the ball to Smith at crucial moments in the game. If Smith is able to catch the ball in stride, it could mean multiple big plays for the Ohio State offense. He is clearly on his way to becoming the top receiver in Ohio State history — he needs just 36 more receptions and 190 receiving yards to reach that level.
Smith caught 8 passes for 151 yards in the season-opening win over Ball State. He is hungry to punish the Longhorns after being held in check by the Texas defense on two occasions.
Sayin would also like to show that he can riddle the Longhorns secondary. He wants to show that he can find Smith and Brandon Inniss throughout the game. Much will depend on running back Bo Jackson, who is coming off a 9-carry, 83-yard effort in the season opener.
Manning can make a major statement for Longhorns
While Smith wants to show the Longhorns what he can do against them, Texas QB Arch Manning may be even more motivated to have a big game against Ohio State.
He was considered a Heisman Trophy candidate as the 2025 season got underway, but that candidacy vanished because Manning got off to a poor start.
However, he turned his season around in the second half of the year and showed significant improvement. He completed 248 of 404 passes last year for 3,163 yards with 26 TDs and 7 interceptions.
His confidence has grown significantly, and he was excellent in the season opener against Texas State. He completed 20 of 27 passes for 305 yards and 4 TDs with 1 interception. Critics did not like the one pick he threw in the game, but Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian is very happy with his quarterback’s development.
He has a pair of dynamic receivers in Ryan Wingo and Cam Coleman who are going to have to battle the dynamic Ohio State secondary. Wingo caught 7 passes for 121 yards and 1 TD against Texas State, while Coleman caught 3-70-2.
Ohio State vs. Texas Prediction and Pick
The Buckeyes have been a dominant team in the Ryan Day era. He brings an 83-12 record into this vital road game, and one of the reasons for his success is that he has been quite successful at making sure his players understand their jobs and they have confidence that allows them to be successful.
The Buckeyes have the best player in the country in Smith, and many believe he will be an elite receiver the minute he steps into the NFL. The Longhorns have held him in check for two games, but he gets a new opportunity when he ventures into Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium.
The Longhorns will keep it close behind Manning for three quarters, but Ohio State takes over in the fourth quarter and beats Texas again.
Final Ohio State vs. Texas Prediction and Pick: Ohio State +1.5 (-108) and Under 49.5 (-112)
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