Ohio State Week 4 Preview: Offense Keys In On Short-Yardage Issues
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You know your program is in a good spot when a 59-3 blowout is met with a meltdown on social media from the fanbase. Sure, Ohio State fans are special, but the expectation is that the team shouldn’t struggle in any sense against a bottom-half MAC team. Unfortunately for the Buckeyes, they struggled on third and fourth down, as well as in the red zone. Now that Big Ten play is kicking off with the Battle for the Illibuck, the margin for error is gone, and Ohio State needs to begin building its CFP resume.
Ohio State Week 4 Preview: Offense Keys In On Short-Yardage Issues
Jeremiah Smith Record Watch
To this point, much of the Buckeyes’ offense has been “get it to Jeremiah Smith.” Considering he is arguably the best player in college football, it’s a fine strategy, but therein lies room for improvement. Regardless, Smith is sitting with 400 yards and three touchdowns through three games. He was held without a touchdown against Kent State, but he wasn’t needed in the second half. Ohio State seemingly isn’t in the business of letting its stars pad their stats in blowouts. We wonder if that’ll come back to haunt.
Last week, Smith toppled Michael Jenkins’ career receiving yardage mark. This week, barring a legitimately nuclear performance, Smith can only get closer. With one record under his belt, Smith is now 19 receptions and eight touchdowns from owning the Ohio State triple crown. As for the Big Ten, he’s 189 receptions, 831 yards, and 10 touchdowns away. Needless to say, he could finish this season with almost all of those records (though we wouldn’t mind if he gets that Big Ten receptions mark…)
There has been criticism that Ohio State’s offense is too predicated on Smith, which is fair. He’s good enough to carry the offense against most, but it would be ideal if another receiver steps up as a legitimate threat.
Gotta Have It Moments
Ideally, this matchup is about as stressful as the last. But if there are any moments worth keeping an eye on, it would be in those higher-leverage situations either in the end zone or on third/fourth down.
Eleven Warriors did a good piece looking at third-and-fourth-and-short situations thus far in this young season. Against Ball State, the Buckeyes converted all three third-and-short or fourth-and-short. “Short” in this instance is any distance under four yards to go. Against Texas, Ohio State converted one and failed on one (a fourth-and-two). Last week, however, it was not great. In total, the Buckeyes converted one (a fourth-and-goal from the one-yard line…one play after a third-and-goal from the two) and failed on five.
Failing more often than not against Kent State likely won’t make the game more competitive. However, against middle-of-the-pack teams, it provides an opportunity for an upset. Against good teams, it could be the reason a win turns into a loss.
Ideally, Ohio State would have worked out those issues against Kent State to be ready for Illinois. The Fighting Illini are a solid team, just as they have been in each year of Bret Bielema’s tenure.
Hopefully, the struggles last week were just because Ohio State was just trying to end the game and just drill bread-and-butter plays, and not because it was getting out-muscled by Kent State. We will learn quickly if the offense is what it needs to be.
No Quarterback Controversy
Ohio State fans often have this thing where they are not satisfied with what they have and think any outgoing transfer is the next Joe Burrow or Jameson Williams. Of course, for every Burrow and Williams, there are 15 Devin Browns or Bryson Shaws. It’s so easy to say “Ryan Day should have picked Lincoln Kienholz over Julian Sayin!”
What?
Kienholz has had a great start to his season with Louisville. Through three games, he has led the Cardinals to a 2-1 record with 48 of 73 passing for 816 yards and six touchdowns. Kienholz also has 153 yards and four scores on the ground.
For reference, Sayin, against three FBS programs, also has a 2-1 mark, completing 56 of 79 passes for 839 yards and six touchdowns. Of course, on the ground, he has negative 22 yards. Would Ohio State fans really trade a 71% completion percentage (75.1% on his career) for a few rushing yards?
There are legitimate criticisms of Sayin’s 2026 campaign. He hasn’t used his legs as much as he could, he’s missed receivers, and he’s locked on to Smith in crunch time. At the same time, he’s a returning Heisman Trophy finalist while leading Ohio State to the CFP Quarterfinals as a redshirt freshman.
Let’s pump those brakes, shall we?
The Task At Hand
Illinois’ defense is not going to be the best that Ohio State faces this year. It may be fine, but there are plenty of ways the Buckeyes can find success. To this point, the Illini are allowing 21.3 points and 348.7 yards per game.
The pass rush hasn’t been there this year. Through three games, Illinois has only three sacks. At the same time, the secondary has two interceptions, both of which were returned for touchdowns.
Last year, Illinois had no pass rush outside of Gabe Jacas, who is now a member of the New England Patriots. Through the air, this should be a better game for the Buckeye offensive line and Sayin. On the ground, Bo Jackson and company will have a bit of a tougher job. Illinois has 15 tackles for loss, though those are spread out between 13 different defenders.
Bottom Line On Ohio State vs. Illinois
Where: Ohio Stadium, Columbus, Ohio
History: Ohio State 69-30-4 Illinois (2010 win vacated)
Last Matchup: Ohio State won, 34-16, in 2025
Last Illinois Win: 28-21 in 2007
Date and Time: 12:00 p.m. ET
How to Watch: FOX
Spread: Ohio State -27.5; O/U 54.5 (via FanDuel)
Prediction: Kicking off the Big Ten slate with a bang has to be on the minds of Ryan Day and the Buckeyes. A four-touchdown spread is impressive, but Ohio State is 3-0 ATS at this point (barely). Vegas knows what the Buckeyes are. Let’s go with Ohio State winning this one and retaining the famed Illibuck, 45-10.
More Ohio State News
- Questions Remain After Ohio State Thrashes Kent State
- 2026 Bowl Projections After Week Three
- The 2026 Big Ten College Football Playoff Picture: Week 4
- College Football Sunday Summary: Taking a Knee and Watching Our Tone
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