Oklahoma Sooners College Football Playoff and Bowl Projections for 2026-27
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The first wave of season-long projections is out, and the predictions for Oklahoma could not be much more scattered.
Depending on which analyst you trust, the Sooners are either a playoff team playing Texas in the first round or a group headed for a mid-tier bowl against a familiar name.
On3’s Brett McMurphy is the only one in this group with Oklahoma in the College Football Playoff. He has the Sooners as the No. 9 seed on the road against No. 8 Texas in the first round, with the Longhorns advancing to the Rose Bowl to face Ohio State.
A playoff game against Texas would be chaotic in the best way. Even though the teams meet every year in Dallas, Oklahoma has not played a true road game in Austin since Nov. 17, 1923. That detail alone would make the setting historic if it ever happened. A campus site Red River playoff matchup in either Austin or Norman would feed families.
Everyone else has the Sooners outside the playoff field and in different bowl spots.
ESPN’s Mark Schlabach projects Oklahoma in the ReliaQuest Bowl against Michigan. That would be a rematch of the Week 2 game and the third meeting between the programs in two seasons. Familiarity would be high on both sides.
ESPN’s Kyle Bonagura has Oklahoma in the Las Vegas Bowl against Nebraska. The Sooners and Huskers have history that still resonates with older fans, and their most recent meeting in Lincoln in 2022 ended in a 49-14 Oklahoma win. The programs are also scheduled for another home-and-home series in 2029 and 2030, so the path keeps crossing.
CBS Sports’ Brad Crawford lands Oklahoma in the Gator Bowl against Clemson. That one would carry an extra storyline for Brent Venables, who would be facing Dabo Swinney and his former program for the first time as Oklahoma’s head coach. The teams met in the 2014 Russell Athletic Bowl and the 2015 Orange Bowl CFP semifinal, with Clemson winning both.
SI’s Bryan Fischer has the Sooners in the Cactus Bowl against Iowa State. That matchup would revive an old Big Eight and Big 12 series that has been dormant since Oklahoma moved to the SEC.
Taken together, the projections say more about the uncertainty around this roster than anything else. Only one of the five has Oklahoma in the playoff, which tracks with the national view that the Sooners are a top-10 talent team with real questions on offense.
If the line and run game take a step forward and John Mateer stays healthy, the playoff version becomes realistic. If those areas lag again, the bowl projections look more likely.
The spread of landing spots also shows how different people are reading the same résumé. A playoff game against Texas is the most aggressive outcome. Michigan, Nebraska, Clemson, and Iowa State are all plausible consolations depending on how the middle of the SEC season sorts itself out.
These forecasts could look silly by November. For now they offer a snapshot of where the sport thinks Oklahoma sits entering the year: talented enough to be in the conversation, unfinished enough that most people are still projecting a bowl instead of a playoff run.
The games will settle which version is right.
Oklahoma Sooners College Football Playoff and Bowl Projections
On3’s Brett McMurphy: CFP First Round — No. 9 Oklahoma at No. 8 Texas
ESPN’s Mark Schlabach: ReliaQuest Bowl — Oklahoma vs. Michigan
ESPN’s Kyle Bonagura: Las Vegas Bowl — Oklahoma vs. Nebraska
CBS Sports’ Brad Crawford: Gator Bowl — Oklahoma vs. Clemson
SI’s Bryan Fischer: Cactus Bowl — Oklahoma vs. Iowa State
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