Opening Odds: Picking our way through bowl season
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Bowl season is here! Well, technically it’s already been here since Saturday when South Carolina State won a 4OT thriller in the Celebration Bowl and Washington slaughtered Boise State in the… Rob Gronkowski Bowl? The gags are becoming a bit lazy these days, huh?
Anyway, bowl season is a lot of fun because it’s just college football gluttony. It’s a lot of unique match ups, wild games and, increasingly, on-air bits. In other words, it’s pure absurdity, which is exactly the antidote we need to the encroaching seriousness of the College Football Playoff. Too bad Notre Dame doesn’t want to play!
So to mark the occasion, we’re going through every bowl game of the season and making our picks against the FanDuel Sportsbook, which you can now legally access if you’re a Missourian! Go ahead, throw that cash away on exhibition games. Why not, right? What good is it doing you these days anyway?
Let’s start with the grand daddy event…
The College Football Playoff
First Round
- No. 12 James Madison vs. No. 5 Oregon (-21.5)
- No. 9 Alabama (-1.5) vs. No. 8 Oklahoma
- No. 11 Tulane vs. No. 6 Ole Miss (-17.5)
- No. 10 Miami vs. No. 7 Texas A&M (-3.5)
Technically I’m going chalk here, even though the Alabama vs. Oklahoma game would kind of be an upset… only kind of. I do think Texas A&M is being undervalued in the first round, probably just because we’ve only seen them play once in the last month and they got beat by an up-and-down Longhorns team. For what it’s worth, I still think the Aggies were the best team Mizzou played this season, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see them make a run to the semifinals. My pick of the first round is that A&M covers, maybe pretty significantly, against a Miami team that has never looked all that convincing.
Quarterfinals
- No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 Texas Tech (-1.5)
- No. 9 Alabama vs. No. 1 Indiana (-6.5)
- No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 3 Georgia (-5.5)
- No. 7 Texas A&M vs. No. 2 Ohio State (-7.5)
Once again, chalk. I think this will be a tremendous round and maybe the type of weekend that the committee will use to justify its decisions moving forward. It would behoove everyone, except maybe Notre Dame, for this to be a round of tightly contested games.
As for my pick of the Quarterfinals, I’m going with A&M to beat the spread but Ohio State to win. I’m torn between that game and Indiana/Alabama as the best game of the round, but I do think the Hoosiers’ consistent excellence, as well as the fact that they’ll be well-rested, will be too much for the Tide. A&M isn’t going to make things easy on Ohio State, and I wouldn’t rule out a game that goes to the final drive.
Semifinals
- No. 4 Texas Tech vs. No. 1 Indiana
- No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 2 Ohio State
No spreads for the semis as of yet, but I do think this is when we’ll see our first true upset of the CFP. I think Ohio State is really good, but they haven’t faced a team quite like Georgia, who I think will benefit from revving up against Ole Miss. Without seeing the spreads I can’t make an official pick, though I’ll make a guess and say that my pick for the semis will be to take Georgia and the points against the Buckeyes.
National Championship
- No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 1 Indiana
Again, no spread here, but I’l go ahead make my pick by saying Georgia wins the National Championship as likely underdogs. It’s hard to pick against Indiana, but there’s something about this Georgia team, especially in the way they dismantled Alabama in the SEC Championship, that gives me a Natty type of feeling. I still think they’re the standard bearer program in college football, and I expect that to bear out in the first year of a true playoff.
OK, now onto the rest…
Virginia vs. Missouri (-6.5)
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
Saturday, Dec. 27
7:30 p.m. ABC
I’ll start off here because only the real freaks will go beyond it. Also this is a Missouri site. Both things are true.
I am slightly worried about a few things here. Virginia will be royally pissed off about squandering their shot at a CFP bid. Mizzou is losing some offensive depth in the portal, as well as its play-caller. And Virginia will be the better traveled fanbase for this one.
But I also think Mizzou is genuinely a better team. And I think they’ll be motivated to cap this season, as full of disappointments as it was, on a high note. Speaking of motivation, do you think Ahmad Hardy is aware of how close he is to Mizzou’s rushing record? Something tells me that might get him up for this one.
Mizzou wins, but Virginia beats the spread. A close game is just what this team does. Embrace it.
Troy (-2.5) vs. Jacksonville State
IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
Tuesday, Dec. 16
9 p.m., ESPN
Old Dominion vs. South Florida (-3.5)
StaffDNA Cure Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
Wednesday, Dec. 17
5 p.m., ESPN
South Florida is probably taking a hit from oddsmakers because of Alex Golesh’s departure. But this is a team that was a genuine CFP contender for most of the year playing a just-pretty-good Old Dominion team. These types of teams tend to get up for these bowls, so I’m taking the Bulls and the points.
Louisiana (-3.5) vs. Delaware
68 Ventures Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
Wednesday, Dec. 17
8:30 p.m., ESPN
When Louisiana and Delaware line up against each other, you just know this one thing is going to happen: someone is going to win and someone is going to lose. Louisiana is ever so slightly the better team by SP+ and will have a massive traveling advantage for their fans. I’ll take the Ragin’ Cajuns to cover.
Missouri State vs. Arkansas State (-1.5)
Xbox Bowl
Ford Center at The Star (Frisco, Texas)
Thursday, Dec. 18
9 p.m., ESPN2
Missouri State had a strong year under erstwhile Bears’ head coach Ryan Beard, and they’ve been a stronger team than Arkansas State for most of the year. But losing a coach for a program like this can be a real kick in the ass ahead of your biggest game of the year, and it seems like there’s still some question over the rest of Beard’s staff joining him in Myrtle Beach. I think it’s enough for Arkansas State to pull the upset.
Kennesaw State vs. Western Michigan (-3.5)
Myrtle Beach Bowl Presented by Engine
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
Friday, Dec. 19
11 a.m., ESPN
Congrats to Kennesaw State for bouncing back to win 10 games just a year after winning two. But the Broncos are coming off a MAC Championship and looking for their 10th win. There’s enough there to give them the edge. I’ll take Western Michigan and the points.
Memphis vs. NC State (-5.5)
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Friday, Dec. 19
2:30 p.m., ESPN
Memphis is dealing with the loss of its coach, sure, but is that enough to be a 5.5-point dog to a significantly worse Wolfpack team? Not really. I think Memphis pulls through and gets the “upset.”
Washington State vs. Utah State (-2.5)
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
Monday, Dec. 22
2 p.m., ESPN
One week ago, this game would’ve meant as much to me as, well, most of the rest of the games on this list. With Kirby Moore likely in the house? Eh, it still doesn’t mean that much. But enough for me to think the Cougars, who were already the better team this season, will be motivated to show out for the new coach. Give me Wazzu against the spread.
Toledo vs. Louisville (-8.5)
Bush’s Boca Raton Bowl of Beans
Flagler Credit Union Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
Tuesday, Dec. 23
2 p.m., ESPN
Best bowl name? Check. Good matchup? Check. Juicy line? Check. Toledo’s elite defense is going to give the Cardinals plenty to contend with, and I think this will come down to the wire. Louisville wins, but Toledo covers.
Western Kentucky (-4.5) vs. Southern Miss
New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
Tuesday, Dec. 23
5:30 p.m., ESPN
You don’t see these types of matchups – a good team vs. a bad team – very often in bowl season. But thank god for me, we’ve got one here. Western Kentucky walks Southern Miss.
UNLV (-4.5) vs. Ohio
Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl
Ford Center at The Star (Frisco, Texas)
Tuesday, Dec. 23
9 p.m., ESPN
Oh, shoot! Another one! Good vs. bad! Keep ‘em coming! UNLV straight up. This is getting easy.
California (-2.5) vs. Hawaii
Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
Wednesday, Dec. 24
8 p.m., ESPN
So we’re giving points to California for being a worse team than the Rainbow Warriors and playing in a true away game. Not sure what’s going on here. Hawaii wins outright.
Central Michigan vs. Northwestern (-10.5)
GameAbove Sports Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
Friday, Dec. 26
1 p.m., ESPN
Can’t wait to watch this slug fest. Is there a sarcastic font? Northwestern wins, but Central Michigan beats the spread in what should be an ugly, ugly game.
New Mexico vs. Minnesota (-2.5)
Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
Friday, Dec. 26
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Tough one to call. Minnesota isn’t very good, but their defense is. New Mexico isn’t very good and… well, nothing about them is. They’re just more mediocre overall than the Gophers. Still, I think this is the type of game you win if you’re a power conference team. Minnesota wins and covers.
Florida International vs. UTSA (-8.5)
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
Friday, Dec. 26
8 p.m., ESPN
In all honesty, I’m surprised this spread isn’t higher. UTSA’s offense is quite good and Florida International’s defense is quite bad. Even if UTSA gives quite a few points, I can’t see FIU getting enough stops to keep this close. The Roadrunners win by double digits.
Pittsburgh (-6.5) vs. East Carolina
Go Bowling Military Bowl
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
Saturday, Dec. 27
11 a.m., ESPN
Very fun game against two evenly-matched teams. I’ll say Pittsburgh wins, but East Carolina keeps it interesting to the death. Panthers win but don’t cover.
Penn State vs. Clemson (-4.5)
Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (Bronx, New York)
Saturday, Dec. 27
Noon, ABC
Honestly? These two teams deserve to play in a game sponsored by Bad Boy Mowers. Don’t ask me to explain why. I think Penn State, finally feeling a little stability with the hiring of Matt Campbell, pulls the upset.
UConn vs. Army (-6.5)
Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
Saturday, Dec. 27
2:15 p.m., ESPN
Not going to overthink this one. UConn is down its head coach and many of its best players to the transfer portal. Army isn’t amazing, but they’re well-drilled and give teams like the Huskies fits. Army wins and covers.
Georgia Tech vs. BYU (-4.5)
Pop-Tarts Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
Saturday, Dec. 27
3:30 p.m., ABC
Cherry. That’s the best Pop-Tart. In case you were wondering.
Can Mormons eat Pop-Tarts? I guess we’ll find out. They’ll cover against Georgia Tech.
Miami (OH) vs. Fresno State (-3.5)
Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
Saturday, Dec. 27
4:30 p.m., CW Network
Two not very good offenses going up against each other in a not very good bowl. Thrilling.
I’ll take the team closer to home. Fresno State covers.
North Texas (-3.5) vs. San Diego State
Isleta New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
Saturday, Dec. 27
5:45 p.m., ESPN
I love this match up. The country’s best offense (on paper) against a Top 20 defense and elite special teams. A great time slot. This is what bowl season should be all about.
I think North Texas wins, and I think they’ll cover. But I also think this will be the best game of the month. So yeah. Mark your calendars!
LSU vs. Houston (-2.5)
Kinder’s Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
Saturday, Dec. 27
9:15 p.m., ESPN
Will LSU be energized by the arrival of the Lane Train? Or are they already looking ahead to next season? I’ll bet the former. The Tigers upset the Cougars.
Georgia Southern (-3.5) vs. App State
JLAB Birmingham Bowl
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
Monday, Dec. 29
2 p.m., ESPN
Oh, brother. Two teams lower than 105 in SP+. App State getting in on a technicality. Birmingham. Just both of you forfeit and let’s skip this thing, shall we?
Georgia Southern covers. because I don’t care. Don’t put too much money on this one.
Coastal Carolina vs. Louisiana Tech (-8.5)
Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
Tuesday, Dec. 30
2 p.m., ESPN
Ah, Shreveport. The memories.
Anyway, Louisiana Tech isn’t good, but they’re also not awful like Coastal Carolina. I’ll take the Bulldogs in a landslide.
Tennessee (-4.5) vs. Illinois
Liberty Mutual Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
Tuesday, Dec. 30
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Tennessee gets home field advantage (relatively), which is a kind deal of cards for a team that has yet to really beat a team with much of a pulse this year. But the Vols are still a good squad, and they’re getting an Illinois team that has been bruised by life in the Big 10. I’ll take Tennessee to cover.
USC (-5.5) vs. TCU
Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
Tuesday, Dec. 30
9 p.m., ESPN
I think USC is one of the more under-appreciated teams of 2025, and I think they’ll put on a show in the Alamodome. Trojans win by multiple scores.
Iowa vs. Vanderbilt (-6.5)
ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Wednesday, Dec. 31
Noon, ESPN
Our final look at Diego Pavia in a Vanderbilt uniform. That is, until he appeals for three more years of eligibility once he sees his NFL draft stock. Vanderbilt wins, but Iowa beats the spread.
Arizona State vs. Duke (-3.5)
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
Wednesday, Dec. 31
2 p.m., CBS
Another bowl game that exemplifies why bowl season is so cool. Two pretty good power conference teams that have only have faced each other once in their histories. Lots of devil talk. A plug for the greatest sugary cereal of all time. Duke is a slightly better team than Arizona State in just about every way, so I think they cover here. But to be honest, I’m just hanging around for the vibes.
Michigan vs. Texas (-7.5)
Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
Wednesday, Dec. 31
3 p.m., ABC
One of these programs is undergoing one of the largest non-football scandals in the history of the sport. The other one had a somewhat legitimate case to make the College Football Playoff and will be coming into this game feeling somewhat aggrieved. I’m not even sure how Michigan will get up for this game, much less beat a good Texas team. I’ll take the Longhorns to cover… probably by a lot.
Nebraska vs. Utah (-16.5)
SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
Wednesday, Dec. 31
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Three scores is a lot, even for a team as good as Utah playing a team as just-OK as Nebraska. I think the Utes win pretty handily, though it wouldn’t surprise me to see them strangle the Huskers instead of truly putting them to the sword. I’ll take Nebraska against the spread, if only just.
Rice vs. Texas State (-10.5)
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
Friday, Jan. 2
1 p.m., ESPN
Literally the worst team to play in a bowl game this season versus a decent Texas State squad playing near home turf. We don’t need to spend much time here. Texas State wins handily.
Navy (-4.5) vs. Cincinnati
AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
Friday, Jan. 2
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Cincinnati is the better team here, but listen. I watched Army vs. Navy, and let me tell you. These Midshipmen have some m***********s on their team. I think they win, and I think they win convincingly.
Wake Forest vs. Mississippi State (-2.5)
Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
Friday, Jan. 2
8 p.m., ESPN
Can the Bulldogs defeat the odds of losing yet another close game? I say so. Mississippi State becomes bowl eligible and covers against the Demon Deacons.
Arizona (-2.5) vs. SMU
Trust & Will Holiday Bowl
Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego)
Friday, Jan. 2
8 p.m., Fox
Closing out bowl season with a banger. Two good offenses. Two good defenses. Two dirty, rotten, terrible special teams units. Guaranteed fun.
I’ll go with SMU in this case because they feel like a team that wins this type of game.
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