Oregon Ducks favored in all but 1 remaining game, per ESPN FPI
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While some Oregon Duck fans might have found Week 5 a bit boring, with a bye week keeping Dan Lanning's team from the field, there are many others who relished the opportunity to sit back and watch the rest of the college football world without stress, while the team took an opportunity to regroup, rest, and get ready for the second half of the season.
It wasn't a wild week of college football, but some outcomes stood out, particularly in the Big Ten and SEC. Ohio State looked dominant in a top-25 matchup, Penn State fell from grace against Northwestern, and Florida got its doors kicked in by Missouri.
Now, as we surge forward and continue to learn more about the top teams in the nation, Week 6 will present another great data point, particularly for the Ducks. With a top-25 matchup against the UCLA Bruins, Oregon will have a chance to show if they are as good as they looked last weekend against the USC Trojans.
Following the bye, Oregon moved up slightly in the US LBM Coaches Poll to No. 13, and ESPN's Football Power Index kept them in the same spot as last week at No. 9.
Here's a look at the new FPI numbers from ESPN and what it means for the Ducks.
Week 6 vs. UCLA Bruins
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, Per ESPN FPI: 84.8%
Previous FPI Win Percentage: 84.9%
Analysis: This matchup between Oregon and UCLA is going to tell us a ton about both teams. Are the Ducks as good as we expected them to be before the season started, and just needed a wake-up call against Oklahoma State? Are the Bruins deserving of all the love they've been getting nationally over the last couple of months? There's going to be a lot of intrigue as we learn more about both of these Big Ten squads.
Week 7 vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per ESPN FPI: 73.7%
Previous FPI Win Percentage: 75.4%
Analysis: We will see if it's still Dylan Raiola playing in this game, or if Dante Moore is ready to take back over after his concussion. If it is Raiola, though, the intrigue will be high with him going against his former team. As far as drama on the field, though, I'm not sure there is going to be a ton. Nebraska has improved this year, and their offense has gotten a lot better under Anthony Colandrea, but I'm not sure they have the talent across the board to hang with Oregon, assuming the Ducks are playing at the level we expect.
Week 8 at Illinois Fighting Illini
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, Per ESPN FPI: 81.5%
Previous FPI Win Percentage: 77.6%
Analysis: Illinois is a team that had a bit of intrigue going into the year, but they haven't quite lived up to expectations. After a loss to Purdue this week — the Boilermakers' first Big Ten win since 2023 — the Fighting Illini are looking for answers, and I'm not sure they're going to find any against the Ducks, even at home.
Week 9 vs. Northwestern Wildcats
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, Per ESPN FPI: 78.6%
Previous FPI Win Percentage: 85.3%
Analysis: At this point, we can't ignore Northwestern any longer. They are 3-1 with big wins over Penn State and Colorado, and their only loss came against the Indiana Hoosiers, but it was a competitive game. Chip Kelly has revitalized their offense, and QB Aiden Chiles is playing very well. I'm not here saying that they are going to come into Autzen on Halloween night and upset the Ducks, but I absolutely think it will be a competitive game.
Week 10 at Ohio State Buckeyes
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, Per ESPN FPI: 19.8%
Previous FPI Win Percentage: 22.2%
Analysis: Ohio State continues to look like arguably the best team in the nation, and Jeremiah Smith looks completely unstoppable. While Oregon has players in the secondary to throw at him, it'll be tough to stop this Buckeyes offense, especially in Columbus.
Week 11 vs. Michigan Wolverines
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, Per ESPN FPI: 86.4%
Previous FPI Win Percentage: 82.3%
Analysis: The frustration in Ann Arbor has continued, and a loss to Minnesota over the weekend was another tough one to swallow. The Wolverines are 3-2, but they've lost two straight games, and Bryce Underwood looks particularly uninspiring. We will see how both Oregon and Michigan look at this late stage in the season, but I think the Ducks will be heavily favored.
Week 12 at Michigan State Spartans
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, Per ESPN FPI: 88.2%
Previous FPI Win Percentage: 85.3%
Analysis: All preseason, this has been billed as the "trap game" for Oregon, with it coming on a short week, and played between games against Ohio State, Michigan, and Washington. However, the Spartans have been very uninspiring so far this year, so I don't think the Ducks should have much of a problem.
Week 13 vs. Washington Huskies
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, Per ESPN FPI: 91.0%
Previous FPI Win Percentage: 91.7%
Analysis: Washington's season is going downhill quickly, and by the time they travel to Eugene in late November, it will be interesting to see exactly what state they're in. After a tough loss to the USC Trojans over the weekend, the Huskies are 3-2 with back-to-back losses. If something doesn't turn around quickly, things could go south in a hurry for Jedd Fisch.
Oregon Ducks Season Outlook
Percent Chance to Win Out: 5.5%
Previous FPI %: 6.1%
Percent Chance to Win Conference: 16.1%
Previous FPI %: 19.1%
Percent Chance to Make College Football Playoff: 39.0%
Previous FPI %: 41.1%
Percent Chance to Make National Championship: 5.2%
Previous FPI %: 6.6%
Percent Chance to Win National Championship: 2.3%
Previous FPI %: 3.2%
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This article originally appeared on Ducks Wire: Oregon Ducks favored in all but 1 remaining game, per ESPN FPI
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